Model estimate for 3:00 PM MST (no recent station report)

Arivaca Junction, AZ weather

Sunny and 76°24°.

Forecasts agree

Now 76°24°

Sunny

Wind: 13 mph21 km/hgusts 19 mph30 km/h; From the southwest. Up to 13 mph21 km/h through 3 AM
Dew point: 44°7°; Comfortable
UV index: 4Moderate; Was high 12–2 PM · peak 6
Air quality: 14Good; PM2.5 (fine particles) · tomorrow moderate

No precipitation expected in the next 2 hours.

From forecast models

Next 48 hours

Good hours for

Low 48°9° tomorrow at 6 AM
Above 60°16° tomorrow by 9 AM

This afternoonNear 75°24° · Partly cloudy
TonightDown to 49°9° by 5 AM · Clear
Tomorrow morningUp to 74°23° by 11 AM · Clear
Tomorrow afternoonNear 76°24° · Clear
Tomorrow nightDown to 49°9° by 5 AM · Partly cloudy
Monday morningUp to 78°26° by 11 AM · Clear
Monday afternoonNear 82°28° · Clear

Hourly forecast, next 48 hours, in the place's local time
Hour	Conditions	Temperature	Feels like	Precipitation	Wind	Humidity	Cloud cover	UV index
Sat 3p	Sunny	76°24° (likely 72°22° to 76°24°)	76°24°	5%	13 mph21 km/h from SW, gusts 19 mph30 km/h	32%	20%	4
Sat 4p	Sunny	75°24° (likely 71°22° to 75°24°)	75°24°	5%	13 mph21 km/h from SW, gusts 17 mph27 km/h	33%	36%	3
Sat 5p	Sunny	74°23° (likely 69°21° to 74°23°)	74°23°	5%	10 mph16 km/h from SW, gusts 16 mph25 km/h	32%	29%	1
Sat 6p	Clear	69°21° (likely 66°19° to 69°21°)	69°21°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from WSW, gusts 14 mph22 km/h	36%	22%	0
Sat 7p	Mostly clear	66°19° (likely 62°17° to 66°19°)	66°19°	5%	6 mph10 km/h from WSW, gusts 11 mph17 km/h	41%	10%	0
Sat 8p	Clear	64°18° (likely 58°14° to 64°18°)	64°18°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	44%	20%	0
Sat 9p	Clear	61°16° (likely 57°14° to 62°17°)	61°16°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SW, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	50%	33%	0
Sat 10p	Clear	59°15° (likely 56°13° to 60°16°)	59°15°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SW, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	56%	36%	0
Sat 11p	Clear	58°14° (likely 56°13° to 59°15°)	58°14°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from S, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	60%	25%	0
Sun 12a	Clear	56°13° (likely 53°12° to 58°14°)	56°13°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SSE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	63%	7%	0
Sun 1a	Clear	54°12° (likely 51°11° to 57°14°)	54°12°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from WSW, gusts 3 mph6 km/h	67%	8%	0
Sun 2a	Clear	53°12° (likely 50°10° to 56°13°)	53°12°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from WSW, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	69%	8%	0
Sun 3a	Clear	51°11° (likely 48°9° to 56°13°)	51°11°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from SSE, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	75%	10%	0
Sun 4a	Clear	50°10° (likely 47°8° to 55°13°)	50°10°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SE, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	77%	11%	0
Sun 5a	Clear	49°9° (likely 46°8° to 54°12°)	49°9°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from S, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	81%	11%	0
Sun 6a	Clear	48°9° (likely 46°8° to 54°12°)	48°9°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SSW, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	82%	8%	0
Sun 7a	Sunny	50°10° (likely 45°7° to 54°12°)	50°10°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SSW, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	77%	1%	0
Sun 8a	Sunny	56°13° (likely 50°10° to 58°14°)	56°13°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SSW, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	64%	1%	1
Sun 9a	Sunny	64°18° (likely 58°14° to 64°18°)	64°18°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from S, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	48%	1%	2
Sun 10a	Sunny	68°20° (likely 64°18° to 68°20°)	68°20°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	41%	0%	4
Sun 11a	Sunny	74°23° (likely 70°21° to 74°23°)	74°23°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from ENE, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	35%	0%	5
Sun 12p	Sunny	76°24° (likely 73°23° to 76°24°)	76°24°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SSE, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	33%	0%	6
Sun 1p	Sunny	77°25° (likely 74°23° to 77°25°)	77°25°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from S, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	30%	0%	6
Sun 2p	Mostly sunny	78°26° (likely 75°24° to 78°26°)	78°26°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from ENE, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	27%	11%	5
Sun 3p	Sunny	78°26° (likely 75°24° to 78°26°)	78°26°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from E, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	27%	40%	4
Sun 4p	Sunny	77°25° (likely 75°24° to 77°25°)	77°25°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from N, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	28%	30%	3
Sun 5p	Sunny	76°24° (likely 73°23° to 76°24°)	76°24°	0%	8 mph13 km/h from NNE, gusts 13 mph21 km/h	28%	40%	1
Sun 6p	Clear	71°22° (likely 67°19° to 71°22°)	71°22°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from N, gusts 15 mph24 km/h	32%	0%	0
Sun 7p	Clear	68°20° (likely 62°17° to 68°20°)	68°20°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from NNE, gusts 14 mph23 km/h	36%	12%	0
Sun 8p	Clear	65°18° (likely 59°15° to 66°19°)	65°18°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from NNE, gusts 10 mph16 km/h	38%	1%	0
Sun 9p	Clear	62°17° (likely 56°13° to 63°17°)	62°17°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	45%	0%	0
Sun 10p	Clear	60°16° (likely 54°12° to 62°17°)	60°16°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph12 km/h	51%	0%	0
Sun 11p	Clear	58°14° (likely 51°11° to 60°16°)	58°14°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	57%	3%	0
Mon 12a	Clear	56°13° (likely 50°10° to 60°16°)	56°13°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	59%	27%	0
Mon 1a	Partly cloudy	55°13° (likely 48°9° to 59°15°)	55°13°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	62%	31%	0
Mon 2a	Cloudy	53°12° (likely 47°8° to 58°14°)	53°12°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SSE, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	64%	78%	0
Mon 3a	Partly cloudy	51°11° (likely 46°8° to 57°14°)	51°11°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from S, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	69%	61%	0
Mon 4a	Partly cloudy	50°10° (likely 45°7° to 56°13°)	50°10°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from S, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	70%	48%	0
Mon 5a	Partly cloudy	49°9° (likely 45°7° to 55°13°)	48°9°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from S, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	71%	47%	0
Mon 6a	Partly cloudy	48°9° (likely 43°6° to 55°13°)	47°8°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from S, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	73%	44%	0
Mon 7a	Mostly sunny	50°10° (likely 43°6° to 55°13°)	50°10°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SSE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	67%	21%	0
Mon 8a	Sunny	56°13° (likely 48°9° to 59°15°)	56°13°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	56%	1%	1
Mon 9a	Sunny	64°18° (likely 57°14° to 65°18°)	64°18°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SE, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	45%	3%	2
Mon 10a	Sunny	72°22° (likely 66°19° to 72°22°)	72°22°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SSE, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	35%	3%	4
Mon 11a	Sunny	78°26° (likely 73°23° to 78°26°)	78°26°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SSE, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	28%	3%	5
Mon 12p	Sunny	81°27° (likely 76°24° to 81°27°)	80°27°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from S, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	24%	1%	6
Mon 1p	Sunny	83°28° (likely 77°25° to 83°28°)	80°27°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SW, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	22%	0%	6
Mon 2p	Sunny	83°28° (likely 78°26° to 83°28°)	81°27°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from WSW, gusts 7 mph12 km/h	20%	0%	5

Days ahead

Shaded: typical range for these dates (1991–2020)

Today, Oct 24. Mostly sunny. High 77°25°, low 46°8°. Typical 79°26° / 45°7°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 76°24°
  Dry
2. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 64°18°
  Dry
3. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 49°9°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Today: Sunny, with a high near 77. Southwest wind around 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 46. South southwest wind 1 to 7 mph.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
73°23°–77°25°
Low, likely
46°8°–55°13°
Typical high / low
79°26° / 45°7°
Wind
14 mph23 km/h, gusts 27 mph43 km/h
UV peak
6
Tomorrow, Oct 25. Mostly sunny. High 78°26°, low 46°8°. Typical 79°26° / 45°7°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 56°13°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 78°26°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 65°18°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Partly cloudy, 49°9°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 78. East wind 2 to 8 mph.
Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. East northeast wind 2 to 7 mph.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
75°24°–78°26°
Low, likely
45°7°–53°12°
Typical high / low
79°26° / 45°7°
Wind
10 mph16 km/h, gusts 18 mph28 km/h
UV peak
6
Monday, Oct 26. Mostly sunny. High 83°28°, low 51°11°. Typical 78°26° / 44°7°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 56°13°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 83°28°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 64°18°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 52°11°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 83. South southwest wind around 5 mph.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
79°26°–83°28°
Low, likely
43°6°–55°13°
Typical high / low
78°26° / 44°7°
Wind
8 mph12 km/h, gusts 14 mph22 km/h
UV peak
6
Tuesday, Oct 27. Sunny. High 84°29°, low 52°11°. Typical 78°26° / 44°7°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 57°14°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 81°27°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 65°19°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 56°14°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 84.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 52.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
80°27°–84°29°
Low, likely
44°7°–57°14°
Typical high / low
78°26° / 44°7°
Wind
11 mph18 km/h, gusts 16 mph26 km/h
UV peak
6
Wednesday, Oct 28. Partly sunny. High 84°29°, low 54°12°. Typical 78°26° / 44°7°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 61°16°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 81°27°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 66°19°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 57°14°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.
Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
79°26°–84°29°
Low, likely
53°12°–59°15°
Typical high / low
78°26° / 44°7°
Wind
14 mph22 km/h, gusts 20 mph31 km/h
UV peak
5
Thursday, Oct 29. Cloudy. High 83°28°, low 56°13°. Typical 78°26° / 44°7°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 62°17°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 81°27°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 68°20°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 61°16°
  20% chance · 0.05 in1.2 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 83.
Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
79°26°–83°28°
Low, likely
54°12°–59°15°
Typical high / low
78°26° / 44°7°
Wind
14 mph22 km/h, gusts 24 mph38 km/h
UV peak
5
Friday, Oct 30. Thunderstorms. High 76°24°, low 53°12°. Typical 77°25° / 43°6°. Storms 0.33 in8.4 mm, 50% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 64°18°
  30% chance · 0.15 in3.8 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 71°22°
  40% chance · 0.15 in3.8 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 62°16°
  30% chance · 0.05 in1.1 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Mostly clear, 57°14°
  20% chance
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: A chance of rain showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Night: A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
67°19°–77°25°
Low, likely
53°12°–60°16°
Typical high / low
77°25° / 43°6°
Wind
26 mph42 km/h, gusts 39 mph63 km/h
UV peak
2
Saturday, Oct 31. Drizzle. High 70°21°, low 57°14°. Typical 77°25° / 43°6°. Rain 0.09 in2.3 mm, 40% chance. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 60°15°
  20% chance
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 71°21°
  30% chance
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 64°18°
  40% chance
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Partly cloudy, 57°14°
  40% chance · 0.04 in1.1 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
68°20°–73°23°
Low, likely
54°12°–60°16°
Typical high / low
77°25° / 43°6°
Wind
16 mph25 km/h, gusts 25 mph40 km/h
UV peak
6
Sunday, Nov 1. Cloudy. High 69°21°, low 55°13°. Typical 77°25° / 43°6°. Rain 0.27 in6.9 mm, 40% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 60°15°
  40% chance · 0.1 in2.6 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Partly sunny, 70°21°
  40% chance · 0.02 in0.6 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 60°16°
  30% chance · 0.02 in0.6 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 54°12°
  30% chance
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
64°18°–76°24°
Low, likely
47°8°–60°16°
Typical high / low
77°25° / 43°6°
Wind
19 mph30 km/h, gusts 37 mph59 km/h
UV peak
6
Monday, Nov 2. Cloudy. High 75°24°, low 53°12°. Typical 76°24° / 42°6°. Rain 0.03 in0.8 mm, 30% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 59°15°
  20% chance
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 77°25°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 65°19°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
66°19°–83°28°
Low, likely
43°6°–63°17°
Typical high / low
76°24° / 42°6°
Wind
9 mph14 km/h, gusts 19 mph30 km/h
UV peak
6

10 days15 days30 days

The outlook

Today
Dry, high 77°, low 46°.
Tomorrow
Dry, high 78°, low 46°.
Monday
Dry, high 83°, low 51°, warming up.
Rest of week
Highs 69–84°; chance of precipitation on Friday.

Want the meteorologists’ reasoning? Read the NWS forecast discussion (TWC) (opens in a new tab)

What changed since yesterday

No meaningful changes from yesterday’s forecast.

Radar

Radar data: NOAA MRMS, rendered by forecast.blue

Radar loads when scrolled into view

Full-screen radar

Rivers

NOAA river gauges within 25 mi

Santa Cruz River near Tubac

8.9 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 20.8 ft
Flow: 3 cfs

Forecast peak 21.5 ft Sat 5 AM

Reading from Sat 2:45 PM · NWS gauge page

Santa Cruz River at Green Valley

11 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 1.1 ft

Forecast peak 1.6 ft Sat 4 PM

Reading from Sat 2 PM · NWS gauge page

Altar Wash near Three Points

21 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 1.7 ft

Forecast peak 1.8 ft Sat 4 PM

Reading from Sat 1:45 PM · NWS gauge page

For your home

What this week’s weather means for heating, cooling, pipes and fresh air.

Heating this week

About 58% less heating than a typical week.

This week 11Typical 27

Heating degree days, base 65°F

Comfort

Dry air outside (dew point 44°F).

Open the windows?

Today, 4:00 PM–9:00 PM

Good stretch to open the windows.

Is this typical?

Tumacacori Nm · official normals 1991–2020 · records 1946–2026

Oct 24, today vs a typical year

Today’s expected high is 2°1° colder than typical.

Last 7 days vs normal

—SunOct 18
—MonOct 19
—TueOct 20
—WedOct 21
—ThuOct 22
—FriOct 23
—SatOct 24

Arivaca Junction weather by month: normals, records, snow and freeze dates

Sun & moon

Sun

Daylight: 11 h 8 min; Losing 1 min 48 s a day; shortest Dec 21, 1 h 3 min less
Golden hour: 5:08–5:57 PM; Morning 6:19–7:07 AM
Blue hour: 5:57–6:06 PM; Morning 6:09–6:19 AM; first light 6:09 AM

Stars tonight? Fair

Mostly clear 12–6:10 AM, but the moon is 99% lit and up.

Moon

Waxing gibbous

98% lit · growing

Today: sets 4:56 AM · rises 4:39 PM
Full moon: Oct 25
New moon: Nov 9

Looking east from Arivaca Junction. The highest point on the skyline is about 9,200 ft, 14 mi away.Skyline from USGS elevation data, heights drawn up to 4× taller. Sky, sun and moon as they are now.

Arivaca Junction, AZ weather

Next 2 hours

Next 48 hours

Days ahead

The outlook

Today

Tomorrow

Monday

Rest of week

What changed since yesterday

Radar

Rivers

Santa Cruz River near Tubac

Santa Cruz River at Green Valley

Altar Wash near Three Points

For your home

Heating this week

Comfort

Open the windows?

Is this typical?

Oct 24, today vs a typical year

Last 7 days vs normal

Sun & moon

Sun

Stars tonight? Fair

Moon