Observed 7:55 AM MST at KSEZ

Lake Montezuma, AZ weather

Sunny and 52°11°, 11°6° colder than a typical Oct 24, jacket by 9 PM.

Mostly agree

Now 52°11°

Sunny

Wind: 9 mph15 km/h; From the north-northeast. Up to 9 mph15 km/h through 9 PM
Dew point: 37°3°; Comfortable · up to 47°8° by 10 AM
UV index: 1Low; Moderate 10 AM–3 PM · peak 5
Pressure: 30.02 inHg1017 hPa; Rising slowly · +0.01 inHg+0.5 hPa in 3 h

No precipitation expected in the next 2 hours.

From forecast models

Next 48 hours

About the same as this time yesterday (54°12° then, 52°11° now)

Good hours for

High 68°20° today at 2 PM
Below 60°16° tonight after 7 PM
Low 42°6° tomorrow at 7 AM
Above 60°16° tomorrow by 11 AM

This morningUp to 61°16° by 11 AM · rain chance 20% · Clear
This afternoonNear 64°18° · rain chance 30% · Partly cloudy
TonightDown to 44°7° by 4 AM · rain chance 10% · Clear
Tomorrow morningUp to 62°17° by 11 AM · Clear
Tomorrow afternoonUp to 70°21° by 2 PM · Clear
Tomorrow nightDown to 43°6° by 4 AM · Clear
Monday morningNear 44°7° · Partly cloudy

Hourly forecast, next 48 hours, in the place's local time
Hour	Conditions	Temperature	Feels like	Precipitation	Wind	Humidity	Cloud cover	UV index
Sat 9a	Sunny	55°13° (likely 50°10° to 57°14°)	55°13°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SW, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	72%	17%	1
Sat 10a	Sunny	59°15° (likely 55°13° to 61°16°)	59°15°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	64%	16%	3
Sat 11a	Sunny	61°16° (likely 60°16° to 64°18°)	61°16°	20%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	58%	8%	4
Sat 12p	Sunny	65°18° (likely 63°17° to 66°19°)	65°18°	20%	6 mph10 km/h from SW, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	48%	15%	5
Sat 1p	Sunny	67°19° (likely 64°18° to 67°19°)	67°19°	20%	7 mph11 km/h from SW, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	43%	27%	5
Sat 2p	Sunny	68°20° (likely 63°17° to 68°20°)	68°20°	30%	8 mph13 km/h from SW, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	42%	28%	4
Sat 3p	Sunny	67°19° (likely 61°16° to 69°21°)	67°19°	30%	8 mph13 km/h from SW, gusts 10 mph16 km/h	45%	52%	2
Sat 4p	Sunny	65°18° (likely 58°14° to 68°20°)	65°18°	30%	8 mph13 km/h from SW, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	48%	34%	1
Sat 5p	Cloudy	63°17° (likely 57°14° to 65°18°)	63°17°	10%	6 mph10 km/h from SE, gusts 12 mph20 km/h	54%	55%	1
Sat 6p	Drizzle	61°16° (likely 53°12° to 61°16°)	61°16°	10%	6 mph10 km/h from SE, gusts 11 mph17 km/h	60%	44%	0
Sat 7p	Clear	58°14° (likely 50°10° to 58°14°)	58°14°	10%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 15 mph23 km/h	67%	44%	0
Sat 8p	Clear	56°13° (likely 47°8° to 56°13°)	56°13°	10%	1 mph2 km/h from N, gusts 13 mph21 km/h	74%	41%	0
Sat 9p	Clear	53°12° (likely 46°8° to 55°13°)	53°12°	10%	1 mph2 km/h from NE, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	80%	43%	0
Sat 10p	Mostly clear	52°11° (likely 45°7° to 53°12°)	52°11°	10%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	83%	30%	0
Sat 11p	Mostly clear	51°11° (likely 43°6° to 52°11°)	51°11°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	83%	12%	0
Sun 12a	Clear	49°9° (likely 43°6° to 51°11°)	49°9°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from SE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	86%	3%	0
Sun 1a	Clear	48°9° (likely 42°6° to 50°10°)	48°9°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	89%	4%	0
Sun 2a	Clear	47°8° (likely 41°5° to 48°9°)	47°8°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	93%	4%	0
Sun 3a	Clear	45°7° (likely 40°4° to 48°9°)	45°7°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	96%	2%	0
Sun 4a	Clear	44°7° (likely 39°4° to 48°9°)	44°7°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 2 mph4 km/h	100%	1%	0
Sun 5a	Clear	44°7° (likely 39°4° to 47°8°)	44°7°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	100%	3%	0
Sun 6a	Clear	43°6° (likely 41°5° to 47°8°)	43°6°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 3 mph4 km/h	100%	3%	0
Sun 7a	Sunny	42°6° (likely 40°4° to 47°8°)	42°6°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph3 km/h	100%	12%	0
Sun 8a	Sunny	47°8° (likely 43°6° to 50°10°)	47°8°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph3 km/h	93%	4%	1
Sun 9a	Sunny	54°12° (likely 48°9° to 54°12°)	54°12°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	74%	1%	2
Sun 10a	Sunny	58°14° (likely 52°11° to 58°14°)	58°14°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	67%	0%	3
Sun 11a	Sunny	62°17° (likely 57°14° to 62°17°)	62°17°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	56%	0%	5
Sun 12p	Sunny	65°18° (likely 61°16° to 65°18°)	65°18°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	48%	0%	5
Sun 1p	Sunny	68°20° (likely 65°18° to 68°20°)	68°20°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	42%	0%	6
Sun 2p	Sunny	70°21° (likely 66°19° to 70°21°)	70°21°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from NW, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	36%	1%	5
Sun 3p	Sunny	70°21° (likely 66°19° to 70°21°)	70°21°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NW, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	36%	1%	4
Sun 4p	Sunny	69°21° (likely 66°19° to 69°21°)	69°21°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NW, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	37%	1%	2
Sun 5p	Sunny	68°20° (likely 64°18° to 68°20°)	68°20°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	44%	0%	1
Sun 6p	Clear	64°18° (likely 58°14° to 64°18°)	64°18°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	50%	0%	0
Sun 7p	Clear	59°15° (likely 53°12° to 59°15°)	59°15°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	60%	0%	0
Sun 8p	Clear	55°13° (likely 48°9° to 57°14°)	55°13°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	69%	0%	0
Sun 9p	Clear	52°11° (likely 46°8° to 55°13°)	52°11°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	77%	0%	0
Sun 10p	Clear	50°10° (likely 45°7° to 54°12°)	48°9°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	80%	0%	0
Sun 11p	Clear	49°9° (likely 44°7° to 53°12°)	47°8°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	83%	38%	0
Mon 12a	Clear	48°9° (likely 42°6° to 52°11°)	46°8°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	86%	40%	0
Mon 1a	Clear	46°8° (likely 41°5° to 51°11°)	45°7°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 3 mph4 km/h	89%	40%	0
Mon 2a	Mostly clear	45°7° (likely 40°4° to 51°11°)	44°7°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	93%	51%	0
Mon 3a	Mostly clear	44°7° (likely 39°4° to 51°11°)	42°6°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	96%	40%	0
Mon 4a	Mostly clear	43°6° (likely 38°3° to 50°10°)	41°5°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	96%	33%	0
Mon 5a	Mostly clear	43°6° (likely 38°3° to 50°10°)	41°5°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	96%	33%	0
Mon 6a	Mostly clear	42°6° (likely 33°1° to 50°10°)	40°4°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	100%	32%	0
Mon 7a	Mostly sunny	43°6° (likely 36°2° to 51°11°)	41°5°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	100%	34%	0
Mon 8a	Mostly sunny	45°7° (likely 36°2° to 57°14°)	44°7°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	93%	36%	1

Days ahead

Shaded: typical range for these dates (1991–2020)

Today, Oct 24. Drizzle. High 68°20°, low 42°6°. Typical 79°26° / 39°4°. Rain 0.04 in1 mm, 30% chance. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 61°16°
  20% chance
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 68°20°
  30% chance
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 56°13°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 44°7°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Today: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny. High near 68, with temperatures falling to around 63 in the afternoon. Southwest wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tonight: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then areas of fog. Mostly clear. Low around 42, with temperatures rising to around 44 overnight. East wind 0 to 6 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
64°18°–69°21°
Low, likely
42°6°–48°9°
Typical high / low
79°26° / 39°4°
Wind
14 mph23 km/h, gusts 24 mph38 km/h
UV peak
6
Tomorrow, Oct 25. Fog. High 70°21°, low 42°6°. Typical 79°26° / 39°4°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 47°8°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 70°21°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 55°13°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Mostly clear, 43°6°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Areas of fog before 8am. Sunny. High near 70, with temperatures falling to around 68 in the afternoon. Northwest wind around 2 mph.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 42. Northeast wind 0 to 5 mph.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
66°19°–70°21°
Low, likely
39°4°–46°8°
Typical high / low
79°26° / 39°4°
Wind
6 mph10 km/h, gusts 16 mph26 km/h
UV peak
6
Monday, Oct 26. Mostly sunny. High 73°23°, low 43°6°. Typical 79°26° / 39°4°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Mostly sunny, 45°7°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 71°22°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 54°12°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 42°6°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 73. Northwest wind 0 to 3 mph.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 43. East wind around 2 mph.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
70°21°–73°23°
Low, likely
36°2°–49°9°
Typical high / low
79°26° / 39°4°
Wind
7 mph12 km/h, gusts 13 mph21 km/h
UV peak
5
Tuesday, Oct 27. Sunny. High 74°23°, low 44°7°. Typical 78°26° / 38°3°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 47°8°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 72°22°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 54°12°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 44°7°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 74. Southeast wind around 2 mph.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44. East wind around 1 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
71°22°–74°23°
Low, likely
35°2°–49°9°
Typical high / low
78°26° / 38°3°
Wind
11 mph17 km/h
UV peak
5
Wednesday, Oct 28. Partly sunny. High 74°23°, low 47°8°. Typical 78°26° / 38°3°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 48°9°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 72°22°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 55°13°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 46°8°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Southeast wind around 3 mph.
Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. East wind around 2 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
71°22°–74°23°
Low, likely
36°2°–50°10°
Typical high / low
78°26° / 38°3°
Wind
11 mph18 km/h
UV peak
5
Thursday, Oct 29. Cloudy. High 72°22°, low 49°9°. Typical 77°25° / 38°3°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 50°10°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 72°22°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 58°14°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 51°11°
  30% chance
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: A slight chance of rain showers after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Southeast wind around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Night: A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Southeast wind around 2 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
71°22°–73°23°
Low, likely
41°5°–53°12°
Typical high / low
77°25° / 38°3°
Wind
8 mph13 km/h, gusts 16 mph26 km/h
UV peak
4
Friday, Oct 30. Showers. High 67°19°, low 48°9°. Typical 77°25° / 37°3°. Rain 0.18 in4.6 mm, 50% chance. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 54°12°
  40% chance · 0.05 in1.1 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 65°18°
  60% chance · 0.02 in0.4 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 57°14°
  60% chance · 0.05 in1.3 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 53°11°
  50% chance · 0.17 in4.3 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: A chance of rain showers before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 67. South wind 1 to 6 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Southeast wind around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
62°17°–68°20°
Low, likely
46°8°–55°13°
Typical high / low
77°25° / 37°3°
Wind
12 mph19 km/h, gusts 27 mph44 km/h
UV peak
3
Saturday, Oct 31. Drizzle. High 63°17°, low 50°10°. Typical 76°24° / 37°3°. Rain 0.37 in9.4 mm, 50% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Drizzle, 54°12°
  50% chance · 0.1 in2.5 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 63°17°
  50% chance · 0.08 in2 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 54°12°
  50% chance · 0.08 in2.1 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 49°10°
  60% chance · 0.02 in0.6 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
58°14°–66°19°
Low, likely
46°8°–52°11°
Typical high / low
76°24° / 37°3°
Wind
10 mph16 km/h, gusts 23 mph37 km/h
UV peak
4
Sunday, Nov 1. Drizzle. High 62°17°, low 47°8°. Typical 76°24° / 36°2°. Rain 0.3 in7.6 mm, 60% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Drizzle, 52°11°
  60% chance · 0.06 in1.5 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 62°17°
  50% chance · 0.07 in1.8 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 53°12°
  50% chance · 0.08 in2.1 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 45°7°
  40% chance · 0.02 in0.5 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
54°12°–69°21°
Low, likely
39°4°–50°10°
Typical high / low
76°24° / 36°2°
Wind
10 mph15 km/h, gusts 23 mph37 km/h
UV peak
5
Monday, Nov 2. Cloudy. High 64°18°, low 48°9°. Typical 76°24° / 36°2°. Rain 0.11 in2.8 mm, 40% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 48°9°
  30% chance
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 66°19°
  20% chance
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 57°14°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
57°14°–75°24°
Low, likely
42°6°–58°14°
Typical high / low
76°24° / 36°2°
Wind
10 mph16 km/h, gusts 27 mph43 km/h
UV peak
4

10 days15 days30 days

The outlook

Today
34% chance of rain, high 68°, low 42°.
Tomorrow
Dry, high 70°, low 42°.
Monday
Dry, high 73°, low 43°, warming up.
Rest of week
Highs 62–74°; chance of precipitation on Friday, Saturday, Sunday.

Want the meteorologists’ reasoning? Read the NWS forecast discussion (FGZ) (opens in a new tab)

What changed since yesterday

No meaningful changes from yesterday’s forecast.

Radar

Radar data: NOAA MRMS, rendered by forecast.blue

Radar loads when scrolled into view

Full-screen radar

Rivers

NOAA river gauges within 25 mi

Verde River near Camp Verde

5.8 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 6.6 ft
Flow: 1,060 cfs

Forecast peak 7.2 ft Sat 1 PM

Reading from Sat 7 AM · NWS gauge page

Dry Beaver Creek near Rimrock

6.5 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 3.2 ft
Flow: 109 cfs

Forecast peak 3.2 ft Sat 8 AM

Reading from Sat 6:45 AM · NWS gauge page

Wet Beaver Creek near Rimrock

7.8 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 3.7 ft
Flow: 72 cfs

Forecast peak 3.9 ft Sat 9 AM

Reading from Sat 6:45 AM · NWS gauge page

Oak Creek (AZ) at Page Springs near Cornville

10 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 3.0 ft
Flow: 241 cfs

Forecast peak 3.1 ft Sat 9 AM

Reading from Sat 7 AM · NWS gauge page

For your home

What this week’s weather means for heating, cooling, pipes and fresh air.

Heating this week

About 55% less heating than a typical week.

This week 22Typical 48

Heating degree days, base 65°F

Heat-pump hours, next 7 days

h below 47°F: 15
h below 17°F: 0
h below 5°F: 0

47, 17 and 5°F are the test points heat pumps are rated at. About 2 hours are near freezing and damp, when outdoor units defrost more often.

Comfort

Dry air outside (dew point 37°F).

Open the windows?

Today, 5:00 PM–6:00 PM

Good stretch to open the windows (air quality forecast not available for part of this window).

Is this typical?

MONTEZUMA CASTLE NATIONAL MONUMENT · official normals 1991–2020 · records 1938–2026

Oct 24, today vs a typical year

Today’s expected high is 11°6° colder than typical.

Last 7 days vs normal

On average 2°1° warmer than normal (daily mean temperature).

±0°SunOct 18
−3°−2°MonOct 19
+2°+1°TueOct 20
+6°+3°WedOct 21
+5°+3°ThuOct 22
+1°FriOct 23
—SatOct 24

Lake Montezuma weather by month: normals, records, snow and freeze dates

Sun & moon

Sun

Daylight: 11 h 1 min; Losing 2 min 2 s a day; shortest Dec 21, 1 h 11 min less
Golden hour: 5:06–5:57 PM; Morning 6:24–7:15 AM
Blue hour: 5:57–6:07 PM; Morning 6:14–6:24 AM; first light 6:14 AM

Stars tonight? Fair

Mostly clear 11 PM–6:15 AM, but the moon is 99% lit and up.

Moon

Waxing gibbous

97% lit · growing

Today: sets 5:01 AM · rises 4:39 PM
Full moon: Oct 25
New moon: Nov 9

Looking northeast from Lake Montezuma. The highest point on the skyline is about 7,900 ft, 20 mi away.Skyline from USGS elevation data, heights drawn up to 6× taller. Sky, sun and moon as they are now.

Lake Montezuma, AZ weather

Next 2 hours

Next 48 hours

Days ahead

The outlook

Today

Tomorrow

Monday

Rest of week

What changed since yesterday

Radar

Rivers

Verde River near Camp Verde

Dry Beaver Creek near Rimrock

Wet Beaver Creek near Rimrock

Oak Creek (AZ) at Page Springs near Cornville

For your home

Heating this week

Heat-pump hours, next 7 days

Comfort

Open the windows?

Is this typical?

Oct 24, today vs a typical year

Last 7 days vs normal

Sun & moon

Sun

Stars tonight? Fair

Moon