Tonto Creek near Roosevelt
21 mi- Level
- 2.9 ft
- Flow
- 233 cfs
Forecast peak 2.7 ft Sat 9 AM
Reading from Sat 7:15 AM · NWS gauge page
Model estimate for 9:00 AM MST (no recent station report)
Mesa del Caballo, AZ weather
Sunny and 54°12°, 12°7° colder than a typical Oct 24, rain ~2–4 PM (45%).
Today: low 40°4° (likely 40°4° to 45°7°), high 61°16° (likely 59°15° to 61°16°).
Now 54°12°
Sunny
- Wind
- 3 mph5 km/h
- From the southeast. Up to 8 mph13 km/h through 9 PM
- Dew point
- 43°6°
- Comfortable
- UV index
- 2Low
- High 12–1 PM · peak 6
Next 2 hours
No precipitation expected in the next 2 hours.
From forecast models
Next 48 hours
Good hours for
This morningUp to 60°16° by 11 AM · Rain 11 AM–noon (30%)
This afternoonDown to 54°12° by 5 PM · Rain noon–5 PM (50%)
TonightDown to 40°4° by 5 AM · Clear
Tomorrow morningUp to 60°16° by 11 AM · Clear
Tomorrow afternoonNear 61°16° · Clear
Tomorrow nightDown to 41°5° by 4 AM · Clear
Monday morningUp to 48°9° by 8 AM · Clear
| Hour | Conditions | Temperature | Feels like | Precipitation | Wind | Humidity | Cloud cover | UV index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9a | Sunny | 54°12° (likely 53°12° to 55°13°) | 54°12° | 5% | 3 mph5 km/h from SE, gusts 5 mph8 km/h | 66% | 20% | 2 |
| Sat 10a | Mostly sunny | 57°14° (likely 56°13° to 58°14°) | 57°14° | 5% | 6 mph10 km/h from S, gusts 7 mph12 km/h | 57% | 24% | 3 |
| Sat 11a | Mostly sunny | 60°16° (likely 58°14° to 60°16°) | 60°16° | 30%, 0.02 in0.5 mm | 7 mph11 km/h from S, gusts 11 mph18 km/h | 51% | 37% | 5 |
| Sat 12p | Mostly sunny | 61°16° (likely 58°14° to 61°16°) | 61°16° | 30%, 0.02 in0.5 mm | 8 mph13 km/h from SW, gusts 13 mph22 km/h | 50% | 36% | 6 |
| Sat 1p | Partly sunny | 60°16° (likely 57°14° to 60°16°) | 60°16° | 30%, 0.02 in0.5 mm | 8 mph13 km/h from SW, gusts 15 mph24 km/h | 53% | 47% | 5 |
| Sat 2p | Cloudy | 59°15° (likely 56°13° to 59°15°) | 59°15° | 50%, 0.02 in0.5 mm | 8 mph13 km/h from SW, gusts 14 mph22 km/h | 55% | 72% | 4 |
| Sat 3p | Rain | 58°14° (likely 53°12° to 58°14°) | 58°14° | 50%, 0.02 in0.5 mm | 8 mph13 km/h from SW, gusts 14 mph22 km/h | 60% | 64% | 3 |
| Sat 4p | Sunny | 56°13° (likely 54°12° to 57°14°) | 56°13° | 50%, 0.02 in0.5 mm | 7 mph11 km/h from W, gusts 14 mph23 km/h | 62% | 24% | 2 |
| Sat 5p | Mostly sunny | 54°12° (likely 52°11° to 54°12°) | 54°12° | 5% | 6 mph10 km/h from W, gusts 11 mph18 km/h | 69% | 34% | 1 |
| Sat 6p | Mostly clear | 51°11° (likely 49°9° to 52°11°) | 51°11° | 5% | 3 mph5 km/h from W, gusts 5 mph9 km/h | 77% | 36% | 0 |
| Sat 7p | Mostly clear | 47°8° (likely 46°8° to 51°11°) | 47°8° | 5% | 2 mph3 km/h from NW, gusts 8 mph12 km/h | 93% | 20% | 0 |
| Sat 8p | Mostly clear | 46°8° (likely 44°7° to 50°10°) | 46°8° | 5% | 2 mph3 km/h from N, gusts 10 mph16 km/h | 96% | 33% | 0 |
| Sat 9p | Mostly clear | 45°7° (likely 43°6° to 48°9°) | 45°7° | 5% | 2 mph3 km/h from NE, gusts 9 mph15 km/h | 100% | 16% | 0 |
| Sat 10p | Clear | 44°7° (likely 42°6° to 46°8°) | 44°7° | 5% | 2 mph3 km/h from NE, gusts 9 mph15 km/h | 100% | 3% | 0 |
| Sat 11p | Clear | 44°7° (likely 41°5° to 46°8°) | 44°7° | 0% | 2 mph3 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph12 km/h | 96% | 0% | 0 |
| Sun 12a | Clear | 44°7° (likely 41°5° to 45°7°) | 44°7° | 0% | 2 mph3 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h | 93% | 0% | 0 |
| Sun 1a | Clear | 42°6° (likely 40°4° to 45°7°) | 42°6° | 0% | 2 mph3 km/h from NE, gusts 5 mph7 km/h | 100% | 0% | 0 |
| Sun 2a | Clear | 42°6° (likely 40°4° to 44°7°) | 42°6° | 0% | 2 mph3 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h | 96% | 0% | 0 |
| Sun 3a | Clear | 41°5° (likely 39°4° to 43°6°) | 41°5° | 0% | 1 mph2 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph11 km/h | 96% | 0% | 0 |
| Sun 4a | Clear | 41°5° (likely 39°4° to 43°6°) | 41°5° | 0% | 1 mph2 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h | 93% | 0% | 0 |
| Sun 5a | Clear | 40°4° (likely 39°4° to 43°6°) | 40°4° | 0% | 2 mph3 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h | 96% | 0% | 0 |
| Sun 6a | Clear | 41°5° (likely 38°3° to 42°6°) | 41°5° | 0% | 2 mph3 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h | 93% | 0% | 0 |
| Sun 7a | Sunny | 41°5° (likely 38°3° to 43°6°) | 41°5° | 0% | 2 mph3 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h | 93% | 0% | 0 |
| Sun 8a | Sunny | 47°8° (likely 43°6° to 48°9°) | 47°8° | 0% | 2 mph3 km/h from NE, gusts 5 mph8 km/h | 79% | 0% | 1 |
| Sun 9a | Sunny | 53°12° (likely 51°11° to 53°12°) | 53°12° | 0% | 1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 4 mph7 km/h | 64% | 0% | 2 |
| Sun 10a | Sunny | 56°13° (likely 54°12° to 57°14°) | 56°13° | 0% | 1 mph2 km/h from S, gusts 5 mph7 km/h | 55% | 1% | 3 |
| Sun 11a | Sunny | 60°16° (likely 56°13° to 60°16°) | 60°16° | 0% | 2 mph3 km/h from SW, gusts 6 mph10 km/h | 46% | 2% | 5 |
| Sun 12p | Sunny | 62°17° (likely 57°14° to 62°17°) | 62°17° | 0% | 3 mph5 km/h from SW, gusts 7 mph11 km/h | 41% | 9% | 5 |
| Sun 1p | Sunny | 63°17° (likely 58°14° to 63°17°) | 63°17° | 0% | 5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 7 mph11 km/h | 39% | 5% | 6 |
| Sun 2p | Sunny | 63°17° (likely 60°16° to 63°17°) | 63°17° | 0% | 5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 7 mph11 km/h | 39% | 1% | 5 |
| Sun 3p | Sunny | 62°17° (likely 60°16° to 62°17°) | 62°17° | 0% | 3 mph5 km/h from SW, gusts 7 mph12 km/h | 41% | 1% | 4 |
| Sun 4p | Sunny | 62°17° (likely 60°16° to 62°17°) | 62°17° | 0% | 3 mph5 km/h from SW, gusts 7 mph11 km/h | 41% | 2% | 2 |
| Sun 5p | Sunny | 60°16° (likely 58°14° to 60°16°) | 60°16° | 0% | 1 mph2 km/h from SW, gusts 6 mph10 km/h | 49% | 0% | 1 |
| Sun 6p | Clear | 55°13° (likely 52°11° to 55°13°) | 55°13° | 0% | 1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 7 mph11 km/h | 59% | 0% | 0 |
| Sun 7p | Clear | 50°10° (likely 48°9° to 51°11°) | 49°9° | 0% | 3 mph5 km/h from N, gusts 7 mph12 km/h | 71% | 0% | 0 |
| Sun 8p | Clear | 47°8° (likely 45°7° to 48°9°) | 44°7° | 0% | 7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 9 mph14 km/h | 83% | 0% | 0 |
| Sun 9p | Clear | 45°7° (likely 43°6° to 47°8°) | 41°5° | 0% | 8 mph13 km/h from NE, gusts 9 mph15 km/h | 89% | 0% | 0 |
| Sun 10p | Clear | 44°7° (likely 42°6° to 47°8°) | 39°4° | 0% | 8 mph13 km/h from NE, gusts 10 mph16 km/h | 93% | 0% | 0 |
| Sun 11p | Clear | 44°7° (likely 42°6° to 47°8°) | 40°4° | 0% | 7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 10 mph16 km/h | 89% | 25% | 0 |
| Mon 12a | Clear | 44°7° (likely 41°5° to 47°8°) | 40°4° | 0% | 7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 9 mph15 km/h | 86% | 37% | 0 |
| Mon 1a | Clear | 44°7° (likely 41°5° to 46°8°) | 41°5° | 0% | 6 mph10 km/h from NE, gusts 10 mph16 km/h | 86% | 40% | 0 |
| Mon 2a | Mostly clear | 43°6° (likely 41°5° to 46°8°) | 39°4° | 0% | 6 mph10 km/h from NE, gusts 9 mph14 km/h | 86% | 44% | 0 |
| Mon 3a | Mostly clear | 42°6° (likely 40°4° to 46°8°) | 38°3° | 0% | 6 mph10 km/h from NE, gusts 8 mph14 km/h | 86% | 37% | 0 |
| Mon 4a | Mostly clear | 41°5° (likely 40°4° to 46°8°) | 38°3° | 0% | 5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph12 km/h | 86% | 32% | 0 |
| Mon 5a | Clear | 41°5° (likely 40°4° to 46°8°) | 38°3° | 0% | 5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 8 mph12 km/h | 86% | 27% | 0 |
| Mon 6a | Clear | 42°6° (likely 39°4° to 46°8°) | 38°3° | 0% | 6 mph10 km/h from NE, gusts 8 mph13 km/h | 82% | 16% | 0 |
| Mon 7a | Mostly sunny | 44°7° (likely 39°4° to 46°8°) | 40°4° | 0% | 7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 8 mph13 km/h | 79% | 24% | 0 |
| Mon 8a | Mostly sunny | 48°9° (likely 43°6° to 52°11°) | 45°7° | 0% | 7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 8 mph12 km/h | 68% | 18% | 1 |
Days ahead
Shaded: typical range for these dates (1991–2020)
Today, Oct 24. Rain. High 61°16°, low 40°4°. Typical 73°23° / 38°3°. Rain 0.07 in1.8 mm, 50% chance. Forecasts agree.
Morning
6 AM–noon
Mostly sunny, 60°16°30% chance · 0.02 in0.5 mm
Afternoon
noon–6 PM
Rain, 61°16°50% chance · 0.1 in2.5 mm
Evening
6 PM–midnight
Mostly clear, 46°8°Dry
Overnight
midnight–6 AM
Clear, 40°4°Dry
Official NWS forecast
Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 5pm. Mostly sunny. High near 61, with temperatures falling to around 54 in the afternoon. Southwest wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tonight: Patchy fog between 3am and 4am. Mostly clear, with a low around 40. North wind around 3 mph.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
- High, likely
- 59°15°–61°16°
- Low, likely
- 40°4°–45°7°
- Typical high / low
- 73°23° / 38°3°
- Wind
- 10 mph16 km/h, gusts 24 mph38 km/h
- UV peak
- 6
Tomorrow, Oct 25. Mostly sunny. High 63°17°, low 41°5°. Typical 73°23° / 38°3°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
Morning
6 AM–noon
Sunny, 47°8°Dry
Afternoon
noon–6 PM
Sunny, 63°17°Dry
Evening
6 PM–midnight
Clear, 47°8°Dry
Overnight
midnight–6 AM
Mostly clear, 41°5°Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny. High near 63, with temperatures falling to around 60 in the afternoon. Southeast wind 1 to 5 mph.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 41. North wind 1 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
- High, likely
- 60°16°–63°17°
- Low, likely
- 38°3°–42°6°
- Typical high / low
- 73°23° / 38°3°
- Wind
- 7 mph11 km/h, gusts 15 mph24 km/h
- UV peak
- 6
Monday, Oct 26. Mostly sunny. High 68°20°, low 44°7°. Typical 72°22° / 37°3°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
Morning
6 AM–noon
Mostly sunny, 48°9°Dry
Afternoon
noon–6 PM
Sunny, 66°19°Dry
Evening
6 PM–midnight
Clear, 48°9°Dry
Overnight
midnight–6 AM
Clear, 43°6°Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 68. Southeast wind 1 to 7 mph.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44. East wind around 5 mph.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
- High, likely
- 65°18°–68°20°
- Low, likely
- 39°4°–44°7°
- Typical high / low
- 72°22° / 37°3°
- Wind
- 7 mph11 km/h, gusts 16 mph26 km/h
- UV peak
- 5
Tuesday, Oct 27. Sunny. High 68°20°, low 45°7°. Typical 72°22° / 37°3°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
Morning
6 AM–noon
Sunny, 48°9°Dry
Afternoon
noon–6 PM
Sunny, 66°19°Dry
Evening
6 PM–midnight
Clear, 49°10°Dry
Overnight
midnight–6 AM
Mostly clear, 43°6°Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 68. Southeast wind 2 to 7 mph.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45. East wind around 3 mph.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
- High, likely
- 65°18°–68°20°
- Low, likely
- 40°4°–45°7°
- Typical high / low
- 72°22° / 37°3°
- Wind
- 8 mph13 km/h, gusts 18 mph29 km/h
- UV peak
- 5
Wednesday, Oct 28. Partly sunny. High 69°21°, low 48°9°. Typical 72°22° / 36°2°. Dry. Mostly agree.
Morning
6 AM–noon
Sunny, 49°9°Dry
Afternoon
noon–6 PM
Cloudy, 67°19°Dry
Evening
6 PM–midnight
Mostly clear, 50°10°Dry
Overnight
midnight–6 AM
Cloudy, 48°9°Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Southeast wind 2 to 7 mph.
Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. East wind around 5 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
- High, likely
- 66°19°–69°21°
- Low, likely
- 40°4°–48°9°
- Typical high / low
- 72°22° / 36°2°
- Wind
- 8 mph12 km/h, gusts 17 mph28 km/h
- UV peak
- 5
Thursday, Oct 29. Cloudy. High 65°18°, low 48°9°. Typical 72°22° / 36°2°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
Morning
6 AM–noon
Cloudy, 53°12°Dry
Afternoon
noon–6 PM
Cloudy, 67°19°Dry
Evening
6 PM–midnight
Cloudy, 53°12°Dry
Overnight
midnight–6 AM
Cloudy, 48°9°30% chance
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: A slight chance of rain showers after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 65. Southeast wind 2 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Night: A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. East wind around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
- High, likely
- 65°18°–68°20°
- Low, likely
- 46°8°–50°10°
- Typical high / low
- 72°22° / 36°2°
- Wind
- 8 mph14 km/h, gusts 20 mph33 km/h
- UV peak
- 4
Friday, Oct 30. Showers. High 60°16°, low 46°8°. Typical 71°22° / 36°2°. Rain 0.28 in7.1 mm, 60% chance. Mostly agree.
Morning
6 AM–noon
Cloudy, 52°11°50% chance
Afternoon
noon–6 PM
Drizzle, 59°15°60% chance · 0.05 in1.1 mm
Evening
6 PM–midnight
Drizzle, 52°11°60% chance · 0.14 in3.5 mm
Overnight
midnight–6 AM
Showers, 48°9°60% chance · 0.22 in5.6 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Rain showers likely before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. South wind 1 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Southeast wind around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
- High, likely
- 55°13°–62°17°
- Low, likely
- 46°8°–48°9°
- Typical high / low
- 71°22° / 36°2°
- Wind
- 9 mph14 km/h, gusts 26 mph41 km/h
- UV peak
- 3
Saturday, Oct 31. Drizzle. High 56°13°, low 46°8°. Typical 71°22° / 36°2°. Rain 0.51 in13 mm, 60% chance. Forecasts differ.
Morning
6 AM–noon
Cloudy, 49°10°60% chance · 0.12 in3.1 mm
Afternoon
noon–6 PM
Cloudy, 56°13°60% chance · 0.15 in3.8 mm
Evening
6 PM–midnight
Cloudy, 48°9°50% chance · 0.05 in1.4 mm
Overnight
midnight–6 AM
Drizzle, 46°8°70% chance · 0.04 in0.9 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
- High, likely
- 52°11°–60°16°
- Low, likely
- 45°7°–46°8°
- Typical high / low
- 71°22° / 36°2°
- Wind
- 8 mph13 km/h, gusts 22 mph35 km/h
- UV peak
- 4
Sunday, Nov 1. Cloudy. High 57°14°, low 44°7°. Typical 70°21° / 35°2°. Rain 0.49 in12 mm, 70% chance. Forecasts differ.
Morning
6 AM–noon
Cloudy, 48°9°70% chance · 0.2 in5 mm
Afternoon
noon–6 PM
Cloudy, 58°14°60% chance · 0.1 in2.4 mm
Evening
6 PM–midnight
Cloudy, 48°9°50% chance · 0.12 in3 mm
Overnight
midnight–6 AM
Cloudy, 45°7°50% chance · 0.07 in1.8 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
- High, likely
- 47°8°–67°19°
- Low, likely
- 43°6°–46°8°
- Typical high / low
- 70°21° / 35°2°
- Wind
- 8 mph13 km/h, gusts 19 mph30 km/h
- UV peak
- 5
Monday, Nov 2. Cloudy. High 60°16°, low 44°7°. Typical 70°21° / 35°2°. Rain 0.22 in5.6 mm, 50% chance. Forecasts differ.
Morning
6 AM–noon
Cloudy, 48°9°40% chance · 0.02 in0.5 mm
Afternoon
noon–6 PM
Cloudy, 62°16°30% chance
Evening
6 PM–midnight
Cloudy, 51°10°20% chance
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
- High, likely
- 52°11°–73°23°
- Low, likely
- 41°5°–51°11°
- Typical high / low
- 70°21° / 35°2°
- Wind
- 11 mph18 km/h, gusts 20 mph32 km/h
- UV peak
- 4
The outlook
Today
45% chance of rain, high 61°, low 40°.
Tomorrow
Dry, high 63°, low 41°.
Monday
Dry, high 68°, low 44°, warming up.
Rest of week
Highs 56–69°; chance of precipitation on Friday, Saturday.
Want the meteorologists’ reasoning? Read the NWS forecast discussion (FGZ) (opens in a new tab)
What changed since yesterday
No meaningful changes from yesterday’s forecast.
Radar
Radar data: NOAA MRMS, rendered by forecast.blue
Radar loads when scrolled into view
Rivers
NOAA river gauges within 25 mi
Below flood stage
East Verde River near Childs
20 mi- Level
- 13.1 ft
- Flow
- 311 cfs
Reading from Sat 7:30 AM · NWS gauge page
Fossil Creek near Strawberry
21 mi- Level
- 4.0 ft
- Flow
- 44 cfs
Reading from Sat 6:30 AM · NWS gauge page
For your home
What this week’s weather means for heating, cooling, pipes and fresh air.
Heating this week
About 59% less heating than a typical week.
This week 30Typical 74
Heating degree days, base 65°F
Heat-pump hours, next 7 days
- h below 47°F
- 26
- h below 17°F
- 0
- h below 5°F
- 0
47, 17 and 5°F are the test points heat pumps are rated at. About 11 hours are near freezing and damp, when outdoor units defrost more often.
Comfort
Dry air outside (dew point 43°F).
Open the windows?
Sun, 11:00 AM–5:00 PM
Good stretch to open the windows (air quality forecast not available for part of this window).
Is this typical?
Payson · official normals 1991–2020 · records 1940–2026
Oct 24, today vs a typical year
Today’s expected high is 12°7° colder than typical.
- Normal high / low
- 73°23° / 38°3°
- Forecast high / low
- 61°16° / 40°4°
- Record high
- 88°31° in 1959
- Record low
- 23°−5° in 1996
Last 7 days vs normal
On average 1° warmer than normal (daily mean temperature).
- −6°−3°SunOct 18
- ±0°MonOct 19
- +2°+1°TueOct 20
- +9°+5°WedOct 21
- +5°+3°ThuOct 22
- −2°−1°FriOct 23
- —SatOct 24
Mesa del Caballo weather by month: normals, records, snow and freeze dates
Sun & moon
Sun
Sunrise 6:38 AM, sunset 5:40 PM.
- Daylight
- 11 h 2 min
- Losing 1 min 57 s a day; shortest Dec 21, 1 h 10 min less
- Golden hour
- 5:05–5:55 PM
- Morning 6:22–7:12 AM
- Blue hour
- 5:55–6:05 PM
- Morning 6:12–6:22 AM; first light 6:12 AM
Stars tonight? Fair
Clear 9 PM–6:13 AM, but the moon is 99% lit and up.
Moon
Waxing gibbous
97% lit · growing
- Today
- sets 4:59 AM · rises 4:38 PM
- Full moon
- Oct 25
- New moon
- Nov 9
