Observed 7:15 AM MST at KSEZ

Mormon Lake, AZ weather

Sunny and 50°10°.

Mostly agree

Now 50°10°

Sunny

Wind: Calm; Gusts to 21 mph33 km/h around 9 AM
Dew point: 46°8°; Comfortable · down to 38°3° by 11 AM
UV index: 0Low; High 1–3 PM · peak 6
Air quality: 31Good; Main pollutant: Ozone
Pressure: 30.05 inHg1018 hPa; Steady over the last 3 h

No precipitation expected in the next 2 hours.

From forecast models

Next 48 hours

Good hours for

Above 50°10° today by 11 AM
Below freezing tonight midnight–8 AM (low 29°−2°)
Rain tomorrow 11 AM–5 PM (50%, 0.24 in6.1 mm)
Drops 15°8° tomorrow night 7–10 PM (44°7° → 29°−2°)
Hard freeze tomorrow night from 9 PM (low 27°−3°)

This morningUp to 52°11° by 11 AM · Partly cloudy
This afternoonDown to 49°9° by 5 PM · Clear
TonightDown to 29°−2° by 4 AM · rain chance 10% · freezing, low 29°−2° · Clear
Tomorrow morningUp to 52°11° by 11 AM · Rain 11 AM–noon (50%) · freezing, low 29°−2°
Tomorrow afternoonDown to 45°7° by 5 PM · Rain noon–5 PM (50%)
Tomorrow nightUp to 44°7° by 7 PM · freezing, low 27°−3° · Clear

Hourly forecast, next 48 hours, in the place's local time
Hour	Conditions	Temperature	Feels like	Precipitation	Wind	Humidity	Cloud cover	UV index
Fri 7a	Partly sunny	38°3° (likely 37°3° to 42°6°)	38°3°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SW, gusts 10 mph16 km/h	92%	33%	0
Fri 8a	Partly sunny	43°6° (likely 42°6° to 44°7°)	43°6°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SW, gusts 17 mph28 km/h	89%	28%	0
Fri 9a	Partly sunny	47°8° (likely 45°7° to 47°8°)	46°8°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SW, gusts 21 mph33 km/h	83%	26%	0
Fri 10a	Partly sunny	49°9° (likely 47°8° to 49°9°)	47°8°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 19 mph31 km/h	68%	22%	1
Fri 11a	Sunny	52°11° (likely 48°9° to 52°11°)	52°11°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 18 mph29 km/h	59%	19%	3
Fri 12p	Mostly sunny	53°12° (likely 49°9° to 53°12°)	53°12°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 16 mph26 km/h	54%	25%	5
Fri 1p	Sunny	54°12° (likely 50°10° to 54°12°)	54°12°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 16 mph26 km/h	52%	25%	6
Fri 2p	Sunny	55°13° (likely 50°10° to 55°13°)	55°13°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 15 mph23 km/h	49%	23%	6
Fri 3p	Sunny	55°13° (likely 50°10° to 55°13°)	55°13°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SW, gusts 13 mph21 km/h	49%	20%	4
Fri 4p	Sunny	52°11° (likely 50°10° to 53°12°)	52°11°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SW, gusts 12 mph19 km/h	54%	20%	3
Fri 5p	Sunny	49°9° (likely 49°9° to 51°11°)	49°9°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from SW, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	63%	6%	1
Fri 6p	Clear	44°7° (likely 44°7° to 48°9°)	44°7°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from SW, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	79%	5%	0
Fri 7p	Clear	39°4° (likely 39°4° to 45°7°)	39°4°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from SW, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	100%	1%	0
Fri 8p	Fog	36°2° (likely 36°2° to 43°6°)	36°2°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 9 mph15 km/h	100%	41%	0
Fri 9p	Fog	35°2° (likely 35°2° to 43°6°)	35°2°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NE, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	100%	38%	0
Fri 10p	Clear	35°2° (likely 35°2° to 42°6°)	35°2°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 10 mph17 km/h	100%	25%	0
Fri 11p	Clear	34°1° (likely 34°1° to 42°6°)	34°1°	5%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph14 km/h	100%	15%	0
Sat 12a	Clear	32°0° (likely 32°0° to 41°5°)	32°0°	5%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 7 mph10 km/h	100%	5%	0
Sat 1a	Clear	32°0° (likely 32°0° to 41°5°)	32°0°	5%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 7 mph10 km/h	100%	10%	0
Sat 2a	Clear	32°0° (likely 32°0° to 40°4°)	32°0°	5%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	100%	8%	0
Sat 3a	Clear	31°−1° (likely 31°−1° to 39°4°)	31°−1°	5%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	100%	7%	0
Sat 4a	Clear	29°−2° (likely 29°−2° to 39°4°)	29°−2°	5%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	100%	8%	0
Sat 5a	Clear	29°−2° (likely 29°−2° to 39°4°)	29°−2°	10%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	100%	12%	0
Sat 6a	Clear	29°−2° (likely 29°−2° to 39°4°)	29°−2°	10%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	100%	24%	0
Sat 7a	Sunny	29°−2° (likely 29°−2° to 41°5°)	29°−2°	10%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	26%	0
Sat 8a	Sunny	38°3° (likely 38°3° to 43°6°)	38°3°	10%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	12%	1
Sat 9a	Sunny	45°7° (likely 45°7° to 47°8°)	45°7°	10%	2 mph3 km/h from SE, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	82%	12%	2
Sat 10a	Partly sunny	48°9° (likely 47°8° to 49°9°)	47°8°	10%	3 mph5 km/h from SE, gusts 12 mph19 km/h	68%	31%	3
Sat 11a	Mostly sunny	52°11° (likely 47°8° to 52°11°)	52°11°	50%, 0.04 in1 mm	3 mph5 km/h from S, gusts 14 mph22 km/h	59%	54%	5
Sat 12p	Partly sunny	50°10° (likely 46°8° to 51°11°)	49°9°	50%, 0.04 in1 mm	3 mph5 km/h from S, gusts 15 mph23 km/h	66%	59%	6
Sat 1p	Cloudy	50°10° (likely 46°8° to 51°11°)	49°9°	50%, 0.04 in1 mm	3 mph5 km/h from S, gusts 15 mph24 km/h	66%	64%	4
Sat 2p	Cloudy	50°10° (likely 46°8° to 50°10°)	49°9°	50%, 0.04 in1 mm	3 mph5 km/h from SW, gusts 13 mph21 km/h	66%	75%	4
Sat 3p	Cloudy	50°10° (likely 42°6° to 50°10°)	49°9°	50%, 0.04 in1 mm	3 mph5 km/h from SW, gusts 15 mph24 km/h	66%	79%	3
Sat 4p	Mostly sunny	49°9° (likely 45°7° to 49°9°)	48°9°	50%, 0.04 in1 mm	3 mph5 km/h from SW, gusts 15 mph24 km/h	66%	43%	2
Sat 5p	Partly sunny	45°7° (likely 43°6° to 45°7°)	45°7°	5%	2 mph3 km/h from SW, gusts 15 mph24 km/h	76%	32%	1
Sat 6p	Mostly cloudy	40°4° (likely 40°4° to 42°6°)	40°4°	5%	2 mph3 km/h from SW, gusts 14 mph22 km/h	96%	50%	0
Sat 7p	Partly cloudy	44°7° (likely 39°4° to 44°7°)	44°7°	5%	2 mph3 km/h from SW, gusts 12 mph20 km/h	82%	56%	0
Sat 8p	Fog	35°2° (likely 35°2° to 39°4°)	35°2°	5%	1 mph2 km/h from SW, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	46%	0
Sat 9p	Mostly clear	29°−2° (likely 29°−2° to 38°3°)	29°−2°	5%	1 mph2 km/h from SW, gusts 10 mph16 km/h	100%	18%	0
Sat 10p	Clear	29°−2° (likely 29°−2° to 37°3°)	29°−2°	5%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 7 mph12 km/h	100%	6%	0
Sat 11p	Clear	30°−1° (likely 30°−1° to 37°3°)	30°−1°	5%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 7 mph12 km/h	100%	8%	0
Sun 12a	Clear	31°−1° (likely 31°−1° to 36°2°)	31°−1°	5%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	100%	6%	0
Sun 1a	Clear	30°−1° (likely 30°−1° to 36°2°)	30°−1°	5%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	0%	0
Sun 2a	Clear	29°−2° (likely 29°−2° to 36°2°)	29°−2°	5%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	0%	0
Sun 3a	Clear	27°−3° (likely 27°−3° to 36°2°)	27°−3°	5%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	2%	0
Sun 4a	Clear	27°−3° (likely 27°−3° to 36°2°)	27°−3°	5%	1 mph2 km/h from SW, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	1%	0
Sun 5a	Clear	27°−3° (likely 27°−3° to 36°2°)	27°−3°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from SW, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	0%	0
Sun 6a	Clear	28°−2° (likely 28°−2° to 37°3°)	28°−2°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from SW, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	2%	0

Days ahead

Shaded: typical range for these dates (1991–2020)

Today, Oct 23. Fog. High 55°13°, low 29°−2°. Typical 58°14° / 32°0°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Partly sunny, 43°6°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 55°13°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Fog, 36°2°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 29°−2°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Today: Sunny. High near 55, with temperatures falling to around 49 in the afternoon. Southwest wind 1 to 5 mph.
Tonight: Patchy fog after 7pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 29. East wind around 1 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
50°10°–55°13°
Low, likely
29°−2°–41°5°
Typical high / low
58°14° / 32°0°
Wind
16 mph26 km/h, gusts 35 mph56 km/h
UV peak
6
Tomorrow, Oct 24. Cloudy. High 52°11°, low 27°−3°. Typical 58°14° / 32°0°. Rain 0.05 in1.3 mm, 50% chance. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 38°3°
  50% chance · 0.04 in1 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 50°10°
  50% chance · 0.2 in5.1 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Mostly clear, 35°2°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 27°−3°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Patchy fog before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 5pm. Partly sunny. High near 52, with temperatures falling to around 45 in the afternoon. South wind around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Night: Patchy fog after 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Southwest wind around 2 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
48°9°–52°11°
Low, likely
27°−3°–37°3°
Typical high / low
58°14° / 32°0°
Wind
10 mph16 km/h, gusts 24 mph39 km/h
UV peak
6
Sunday, Oct 25. Fog. High 53°12°, low 29°−2°. Typical 58°14° / 31°−1°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 40°5°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 53°12°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 41°5°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 38°3°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Patchy fog before 7am. Sunny, with a high near 53. Southwest wind around 3 mph.
Night: Patchy fog after 9pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 29. Northeast wind around 1 mph.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
52°11°–54°12°
Low, likely
29°−2°–35°2°
Typical high / low
58°14° / 31°−1°
Wind
7 mph12 km/h, gusts 24 mph38 km/h
UV peak
6
Monday, Oct 26. Mostly sunny. High 55°13°, low 30°−1°. Typical 57°14° / 31°−1°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 42°6°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 57°14°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 43°6°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 40°4°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 55. East wind around 3 mph.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 30. Southeast wind around 2 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
55°13°–59°15°
Low, likely
30°−1°–40°4°
Typical high / low
57°14° / 31°−1°
Wind
14 mph22 km/h, gusts 32 mph51 km/h
UV peak
6
Tuesday, Oct 27. Sunny. High 58°14°, low 31°−1°. Typical 57°14° / 31°−1°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 46°8°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 58°15°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 45°7°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 40°4°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 58. Southwest wind 2 to 6 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph.
Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Southwest wind around 2 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
57°14°–60°16°
Low, likely
31°−1°–41°5°
Typical high / low
57°14° / 31°−1°
Wind
21 mph34 km/h, gusts 31 mph50 km/h
UV peak
5
Wednesday, Oct 28. Cloudy. High 57°14°, low 32°0°. Typical 56°13° / 30°−1°. Dry. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Mostly sunny, 43°6°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 59°15°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 44°7°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 41°5°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Southwest wind 1 to 6 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Southwest wind around 2 mph.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
57°14°–62°17°
Low, likely
32°0°–43°6°
Typical high / low
56°13° / 30°−1°
Wind
17 mph27 km/h, gusts 31 mph50 km/h
UV peak
5
Thursday, Oct 29. Mostly cloudy. High 55°13°, low 33°1°. Typical 56°13° / 30°−1°. Dry. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 47°8°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 60°16°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 48°9°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 45°7°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 55. South wind 2 to 6 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Southwest wind around 2 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
55°13°–64°18°
Low, likely
33°1°–44°7°
Typical high / low
56°13° / 30°−1°
Wind
14 mph22 km/h, gusts 28 mph44 km/h
UV peak
4
Friday, Oct 30. Cloudy. High 57°14°, low 43°6°. Typical 56°13° / 30°−1°. Rain 0.11 in2.8 mm, 40% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Partly sunny, 50°10°
  20% chance
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 60°16°
  40% chance
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 47°8°
  30% chance
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Partly cloudy, 43°6°
  20% chance
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
48°9°–63°17°
Low, likely
41°5°–45°7°
Typical high / low
56°13° / 30°−1°
Wind
17 mph27 km/h, gusts 24 mph38 km/h
UV peak
5
Saturday, Oct 31. Cloudy. High 55°13°, low 42°6°. Typical 56°13° / 30°−1°. Rain 0.24 in6.1 mm, 30% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 49°10°
  20% chance
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 58°14°
  30% chance
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 48°9°
  30% chance · 0.18 in4.5 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Rain, 46°8°
  40% chance · 0.29 in7.3 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
47°8°–63°17°
Low, likely
40°4°–44°7°
Typical high / low
56°13° / 30°−1°
Wind
18 mph29 km/h, gusts 28 mph46 km/h
UV peak
4
Sunday, Nov 1. Rain. High 51°11°, low 43°6°. Typical 55°13° / 29°−2°. Rain 0.4 in10 mm, 50% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Rain, 48°9°
  40% chance · 0.44 in11 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 50°10°
  50% chance · 0.05 in1.3 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 50°10°
  50% chance · 0.07 in1.7 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
46°8°–60°16°
Low, likely
38°3°–47°8°
Typical high / low
55°13° / 29°−2°
Wind
27 mph44 km/h, gusts 40 mph64 km/h

10 days15 days30 days

The outlook

Today
Dry, high 55°, low 29°.
Tomorrow
Dry, high 52°, low 27°, cooling off.
Sunday
Dry, high 53°, low 29°.
Rest of week
Highs 51–58°; chance of precipitation on Sunday.

Want the meteorologists’ reasoning? Read the NWS forecast discussion (FGZ) (opens in a new tab)

What changed since yesterday

No meaningful changes from yesterday’s forecast.

Radar

Radar data: NOAA MRMS, rendered by forecast.blue

Radar loads when scrolled into view

Full-screen radar

Rivers

NOAA river gauges within 25 mi

Oak Creek (AZ) at Sedona

18 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 5.0 ft
Flow: 1,150 cfs

Forecast peak 5.2 ft Fri 8 AM

Reading from Fri 6:45 AM · NWS gauge page

Dry Beaver Creek near Rimrock

22 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 4.2 ft
Flow: 655 cfs

Forecast peak 4.5 ft Fri 8 AM

Reading from Fri 5:45 AM · NWS gauge page

West Fork Oak Creek above Sedona

18 mi

Level: 2.5 ft
Flow: 198 cfs

Reading from Fri 6:45 AM · NWS gauge page

For your home

What this week’s weather means for heating, cooling, pipes and fresh air.

Heating this week

About 66% less heating than a typical week.

This week 50Typical 147

Heating degree days, base 65°F

Heat-pump hours, next 7 days

h below 47°F: 32
h below 17°F: 0
h below 5°F: 0

47, 17 and 5°F are the test points heat pumps are rated at. About 23 hours are near freezing and damp, when outdoor units defrost more often.

Comfort

Dry air outside (dew point 46°F).

Open the windows?

No stretch in the next few days is comfortable enough outside, by temperature, dew point and air quality.

Is this typical?

Happy Jack Ranger Station · official normals 1991–2020 · records 1969–2026

Oct 23, today vs a typical year

Today’s expected high is 3°2° colder than typical.

Last 7 days vs normal

—SatOct 17
—SunOct 18
—MonOct 19
—TueOct 20
—WedOct 21
—ThuOct 22
—FriOct 23

Mormon Lake weather by month: normals, records, snow and freeze dates

Sun & moon

Sun

Daylight: 11 h 2 min; Losing 2 min 7 s a day; shortest Dec 21, 1 h 14 min less
Golden hour: 5:06–5:56 PM; Morning 6:22–7:13 AM
Blue hour: 5:56–6:06 PM; Morning 6:12–6:22 AM; first light 6:12 AM

Stars tonight? Good

Mostly clear 10 PM–6:13 AM; moon 95% lit, sets 5:00 AM.

Moon

Waxing gibbous

92% lit · growing

Today: sets 3:55 AM · rises 4:09 PM
Full moon: Oct 25
New moon: Nov 9

Looking northwest from Mormon Lake. The highest point on the skyline is about 12,500 ft, 33 mi away.Skyline from USGS elevation data, heights drawn up to 6× taller. Sky, sun and moon as they are now.