Observed 11:15 AM MST at KAVQ

Nelson, AZ weather

Sunny and 73°23°.

Forecasts agree

Now 73°23°

Sunny

Wind: 8 mph13 km/h; From the southwest. Up to 8 mph13 km/h through 12 AM
Dew point: 43°6°; Comfortable
UV index: 6High; High until 1 PM
Air quality: 37Good; Main pollutant: PM10 (dust)
Pressure: 29.94 inHg1014 hPa; Falling slowly · −0.02 inHg−0.8 hPa in 3 h

No precipitation expected in the next 2 hours.

From forecast models

Next 48 hours

About the same as this time yesterday (73°23° then, 73°23° now)

Good hours for

High 77°25° today at 2 PM
Low 52°11° tomorrow at 7 AM
Above 70°21° tomorrow by 11 AM

This afternoonNear 75°24° · Clear
TonightDown to 54°12° by 4 AM · Clear
Tomorrow morningUp to 73°23° by 11 AM · Clear
Tomorrow afternoonUp to 79°26° by 2 PM · Clear
Tomorrow nightDown to 52°11° by 5 AM · Partly cloudy
Monday morningUp to 76°24° by 11 AM · Clear

Hourly forecast, next 48 hours, in the place's local time
Hour	Conditions	Temperature	Feels like	Precipitation	Wind	Humidity	Cloud cover	UV index
Sat 12p	Sunny	75°24° (likely 73°23° to 76°24°)	75°24°	5%	5 mph8 km/h from WSW, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	36%	6%	6
Sat 1p	Mostly sunny	76°24° (likely 75°24° to 77°25°)	76°24°	5%	6 mph10 km/h from W, gusts 10 mph15 km/h	32%	24%	3
Sat 2p	Mostly sunny	77°25° (likely 76°24° to 77°25°)	77°25°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from W, gusts 14 mph22 km/h	31%	24%	1
Sat 3p	Mostly sunny	77°25° (likely 76°24° to 77°25°)	77°25°	5%	6 mph10 km/h from W, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	30%	22%	4
Sat 4p	Partly sunny	77°25° (likely 76°24° to 77°25°)	77°25°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from W, gusts 11 mph17 km/h	29%	23%	2
Sat 5p	Partly sunny	75°24° (likely 74°23° to 75°24°)	75°24°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from WNW, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	31%	19%	1
Sat 6p	Mostly clear	72°22° (likely 69°21° to 73°23°)	72°22°	5%	6 mph10 km/h from WNW, gusts 9 mph15 km/h	37%	30%	0
Sat 7p	Clear	68°20° (likely 66°19° to 71°22°)	68°20°	5%	6 mph10 km/h from WNW, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	44%	33%	0
Sat 8p	Clear	65°18° (likely 64°18° to 69°21°)	65°18°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from WNW, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	51%	13%	0
Sat 9p	Clear	63°17° (likely 61°16° to 67°19°)	63°17°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from WSW, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	56%	11%	0
Sat 10p	Clear	61°16° (likely 58°14° to 66°19°)	61°16°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SSW, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	62%	9%	0
Sat 11p	Clear	60°16° (likely 56°13° to 65°18°)	60°16°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SW, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	63%	21%	0
Sun 12a	Clear	59°15° (likely 55°13° to 64°18°)	59°15°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from WSW, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	65%	28%	0
Sun 1a	Clear	58°14° (likely 53°12° to 62°17°)	58°14°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SSW, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	66%	13%	0
Sun 2a	Clear	56°13° (likely 52°11° to 61°16°)	56°13°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from S, gusts 3 mph6 km/h	71%	13%	0
Sun 3a	Mostly clear	56°13° (likely 51°11° to 60°16°)	56°13°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SSE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	69%	22%	0
Sun 4a	Clear	54°12° (likely 50°10° to 59°15°)	54°12°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	72%	16%	0
Sun 5a	Clear	54°12° (likely 50°10° to 59°15°)	54°12°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SE, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	73%	10%	0
Sun 6a	Clear	53°12° (likely 49°9° to 59°15°)	53°12°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SE, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	72%	11%	0
Sun 7a	Sunny	52°11° (likely 48°9° to 59°15°)	52°11°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SE, gusts 7 mph12 km/h	75%	11%	0
Sun 8a	Sunny	58°14° (likely 53°12° to 62°17°)	58°14°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SE, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	62%	10%	1
Sun 9a	Sunny	65°18° (likely 60°16° to 66°19°)	65°18°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SSE, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	47%	4%	2
Sun 10a	Sunny	69°21° (likely 67°19° to 70°21°)	69°21°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from S, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	40%	0%	4
Sun 11a	Sunny	73°23° (likely 71°22° to 74°23°)	73°23°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NW, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	35%	0%	5
Sun 12p	Sunny	75°24° (likely 75°24° to 76°24°)	75°24°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NNW, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	32%	0%	6
Sun 1p	Sunny	77°25° (likely 76°24° to 78°26°)	77°25°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NNW, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	30%	0%	6
Sun 2p	Sunny	79°26° (likely 77°25° to 79°26°)	79°26°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NNW, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	27%	0%	5
Sun 3p	Sunny	79°26° (likely 77°25° to 79°26°)	79°26°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from NNW, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	27%	0%	4
Sun 4p	Sunny	79°26° (likely 77°25° to 79°26°)	79°26°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from NNW, gusts 10 mph16 km/h	26%	0%	3
Sun 5p	Sunny	77°25° (likely 75°24° to 77°25°)	77°25°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from NNW, gusts 11 mph17 km/h	28%	4%	1
Sun 6p	Clear	73°23° (likely 68°20° to 74°23°)	73°23°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from NNW, gusts 10 mph16 km/h	34%	40%	0
Sun 7p	Clear	68°20° (likely 64°18° to 72°22°)	68°20°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from NNW, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	41%	40%	0
Sun 8p	Clear	65°18° (likely 60°16° to 70°21°)	65°18°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from N, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	48%	40%	0
Sun 9p	Clear	63°17° (likely 58°14° to 68°20°)	63°17°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from N, gusts 7 mph10 km/h	54%	40%	0
Sun 10p	Clear	60°16° (likely 55°13° to 66°19°)	61°16°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from ESE, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	59%	40%	0
Sun 11p	Clear	59°15° (likely 53°12° to 65°18°)	59°15°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	60%	39%	0
Mon 12a	Partly cloudy	58°14° (likely 51°11° to 63°17°)	58°14°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from ESE, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	63%	45%	0
Mon 1a	Partly cloudy	57°14° (likely 49°9° to 60°16°)	57°14°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from ESE, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	64%	50%	0
Mon 2a	Mostly cloudy	54°12° (likely 48°9° to 58°14°)	54°12°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	71%	51%	0
Mon 3a	Partly cloudy	54°12° (likely 47°8° to 58°14°)	54°12°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	70%	45%	0
Mon 4a	Partly cloudy	53°12° (likely 46°8° to 58°14°)	53°12°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	70%	38%	0
Mon 5a	Partly cloudy	52°11° (likely 46°8° to 58°14°)	52°11°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	74%	28%	0
Mon 6a	Mostly clear	53°12° (likely 41°5° to 60°16°)	53°12°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SE, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	68%	7%	0
Mon 7a	Sunny	54°12° (likely 41°5° to 61°16°)	55°13°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SE, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	64%	17%	0
Mon 8a	Sunny	58°14° (likely 45°7° to 66°19°)	58°14°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from ESE, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	58%	17%	1
Mon 9a	Sunny	63°17° (likely 55°13° to 69°21°)	63°17°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from ESE, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	47%	6%	2
Mon 10a	Sunny	70°21° (likely 65°18° to 72°22°)	70°21°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	36%	5%	4
Mon 11a	Sunny	76°24° (likely 72°22° to 76°24°)	76°24°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from ENE, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	29%	2%	5

Days ahead

Shaded: typical range for these dates (1991–2020)

Today, Oct 24. Mostly sunny. High 77°25°, low 52°11°. Typical 84°29° / 54°12°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Mostly sunny, 77°25°
  Dry
2. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 65°18°
  Dry
3. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Mostly clear, 54°12°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Today: Sunny, with a high near 77. West wind around 7 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 52. South southwest wind 2 to 6 mph.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
76°24°–77°25°
Low, likely
51°11°–59°15°
Typical high / low
84°29° / 54°12°
Wind
10 mph17 km/h, gusts 19 mph31 km/h
UV peak
6
Tomorrow, Oct 25. Sunny. High 79°26°, low 51°11°. Typical 84°29° / 54°12°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 58°14°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 79°26°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 65°18°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Partly cloudy, 52°11°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 79. South southeast wind 1 to 7 mph.
Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. East northeast wind 2 to 7 mph.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
77°25°–79°26°
Low, likely
48°9°–58°14°
Typical high / low
84°29° / 54°12°
Wind
9 mph15 km/h, gusts 16 mph26 km/h
UV peak
6
Monday, Oct 26. Mostly sunny. High 83°28°, low 55°13°. Typical 84°29° / 54°12°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 58°14°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 82°28°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 67°20°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 56°13°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 83. East northeast wind 1 to 6 mph.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 55.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
81°27°–83°28°
Low, likely
45°7°–57°14°
Typical high / low
84°29° / 54°12°
Wind
9 mph14 km/h
UV peak
6
Tuesday, Oct 27. Sunny. High 85°29°, low 56°13°. Typical 83°28° / 53°12°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 60°15°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 84°29°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 70°21°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 58°15°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 85.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
83°28°–85°29°
Low, likely
47°8°–62°17°
Typical high / low
83°28° / 53°12°
Wind
8 mph13 km/h, gusts 19 mph31 km/h
UV peak
6
Wednesday, Oct 28. Partly sunny. High 86°30°, low 59°15°. Typical 83°28° / 53°12°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 62°17°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 85°29°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 70°21°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 59°15°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
84°29°–87°31°
Low, likely
52°11°–65°18°
Typical high / low
83°28° / 53°12°
Wind
8 mph13 km/h, gusts 17 mph28 km/h
UV peak
5
Thursday, Oct 29. Cloudy. High 84°29°, low 60°16°. Typical 83°28° / 53°12°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 62°17°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 85°30°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 72°22°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 64°18°
  30% chance
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 84.
Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
84°29°–87°31°
Low, likely
52°11°–65°18°
Typical high / low
83°28° / 53°12°
Wind
9 mph15 km/h, gusts 21 mph33 km/h
UV peak
5
Friday, Oct 30. Thunderstorms. High 77°25°, low 56°13°. Typical 82°28° / 52°11°. Storms 0.33 in8.4 mm, 60% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Drizzle, 66°19°
  40% chance · 0.08 in1.9 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 74°23°
  50% chance · 0.16 in4 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 64°18°
  50% chance · 0.09 in2.3 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Mostly clear, 58°15°
  30% chance · 0.01 in0.3 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: A chance of rain showers before 11am, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
71°22°–78°26°
Low, likely
56°13°–63°17°
Typical high / low
82°28° / 52°11°
Wind
17 mph27 km/h, gusts 36 mph58 km/h
UV peak
1
Saturday, Oct 31. Cloudy. High 72°22°, low 58°14°. Typical 82°28° / 52°11°. Rain 0.24 in6.1 mm, 40% chance. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Drizzle, 62°17°
  30% chance · 0.02 in0.6 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Mostly sunny, 72°22°
  40% chance · 0.1 in2.4 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 64°18°
  40% chance · 0.02 in0.6 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Mostly clear, 59°15°
  40% chance
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
70°21°–75°24°
Low, likely
53°12°–60°16°
Typical high / low
82°28° / 52°11°
Wind
16 mph26 km/h, gusts 25 mph40 km/h
UV peak
6
Sunday, Nov 1. Cloudy. High 70°21°, low 57°14°. Typical 82°28° / 52°11°. Rain 0.33 in8.4 mm, 50% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Mostly sunny, 61°16°
  40% chance · 0.06 in1.5 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Mostly sunny, 71°21°
  40% chance · 0.18 in4.6 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 63°17°
  40% chance · 0.11 in2.7 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 56°13°
  30% chance · 0.05 in1.4 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
61°16°–79°26°
Low, likely
48°9°–63°17°
Typical high / low
82°28° / 52°11°
Wind
9 mph14 km/h, gusts 17 mph28 km/h
UV peak
6
Monday, Nov 2. Cloudy. High 73°23°, low 55°13°. Typical 81°27° / 51°11°. Rain 0.12 in3 mm, 30% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 59°15°
  30% chance
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 74°23°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 65°18°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
64°18°–84°29°
Low, likely
41°5°–69°21°
Typical high / low
81°27° / 51°11°
Wind
8 mph12 km/h, gusts 16 mph26 km/h
UV peak
6

10 days15 days30 days

The outlook

Today
Dry, high 77°, low 52°.
Tomorrow
Dry, high 79°, low 51°.
Monday
Dry, high 83°, low 55°, warming up.
Rest of week
Highs 70–86°; chance of precipitation on Friday.

Want the meteorologists’ reasoning? Read the NWS forecast discussion (TWC) (opens in a new tab)

What changed since yesterday

No meaningful changes from yesterday’s forecast.

Radar

Radar data: NOAA MRMS, rendered by forecast.blue

Radar loads when scrolled into view

Full-screen radar

Rivers

NOAA river gauges within 25 mi

Santa Cruz River at Trico Road

3.8 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 2.6 ft
Flow: 32 cfs

Forecast peak 2.5 ft Sat 7 PM

Reading from Sat 10:45 AM · NWS gauge page

Santa Cruz River at Cortaro

11 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 7.9 ft
Flow: 17 cfs

Forecast peak 8.4 ft Sat 2 PM

Reading from Sat 9:45 AM · NWS gauge page

Canada del Oro Wash at Ina Road

15 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 4.1 ft

Forecast peak 4.5 ft Sat 12 PM

Reading from Sat 10:30 AM · NWS gauge page

Rillito Creek at La Cholla

17 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 1.8 ft

Forecast peak 2.1 ft Sat 12 PM

Reading from Sat 10 AM · NWS gauge page

For your home

What this week’s weather means for heating, cooling, pipes and fresh air.

Heating this week

This week 9Typical 0

Heating degree days, base 65°F

Comfort

Dry air outside (dew point 43°F).

Open the windows?

Today, 1:00 PM–11:00 PM

Good stretch to open the windows.

Is this typical?

Tucson 17 NW · official normals 1991–2020 · records 1982–2026

Oct 24, today vs a typical year

Today’s expected high is 7°4° colder than typical.

Last 7 days vs normal

On average 2°1° warmer than normal (daily mean temperature).

+1°±0°SunOct 18
+3°+2°MonOct 19
—TueOct 20
—WedOct 21
—ThuOct 22
—FriOct 23
—SatOct 24

Nelson weather by month: normals, records, snow and freeze dates

Sun & moon

Sun

Daylight: 11 h 6 min; Losing 1 min 48 s a day; shortest Dec 21, 1 h 5 min less
Golden hour: 5:08–5:57 PM; Morning 6:20–7:09 AM
Blue hour: 5:57–6:07 PM; Morning 6:10–6:20 AM; first light 6:10 AM

Stars tonight? Fair

Mostly clear 1–6:11 AM, but the moon is 99% lit and up.

Moon

Waxing gibbous

97% lit · growing

Today: sets 4:58 AM · rises 4:39 PM
Full moon: Oct 25
New moon: Nov 9

Looking east from Nelson. The highest point on the skyline is about 9,100 ft, 28 mi away.Skyline from USGS elevation data, heights drawn up to 6× taller. Sky, sun and moon as they are now.

Nelson, AZ weather

Next 2 hours

Next 48 hours

Days ahead

The outlook

Today

Tomorrow

Monday

Rest of week

What changed since yesterday

Radar

Rivers

Santa Cruz River at Trico Road

Santa Cruz River at Cortaro

Canada del Oro Wash at Ina Road

Rillito Creek at La Cholla

For your home

Heating this week

Comfort

Open the windows?

Is this typical?

Oct 24, today vs a typical year

Last 7 days vs normal

Sun & moon

Sun

Stars tonight? Fair

Moon