Observed 6:55 AM MST at KPAN

Oxbow Estates, AZ weather

Sunny and 41°5°, 8°4° colder than a typical Oct 25.

Forecasts agree

Now 41°5°

Sunny

Wind: Calm; Up to 7 mph11 km/h through 8 PM
Dew point: 37°3°; Comfortable
UV index: 1Low; High 1–2 PM · peak 6
Pressure: 30.18 inHg1022 hPa; Rising slowly · +0.02 inHg+0.8 hPa in 3 h

No precipitation expected in the next 2 hours.

From forecast models

Next 48 hours

4°2° cooler than this time yesterday (45°7° then, 41°5° now)

Good hours for

Above 60°16° today by noon
High 64°18° today at 4 PM
Below 50°10° tonight after 9 PM
Low 43°6° tomorrow at 6 AM

This morningUp to 59°15° by 11 AM · Clear
This afternoonNear 61°16° · Clear
TonightDown to 44°7° by 5 AM · Clear
Tomorrow morningUp to 63°17° by 11 AM · Clear
Tomorrow afternoonNear 65°18° · Partly cloudy
Tomorrow nightDown to 46°8° by 3 AM · Clear

Hourly forecast, next 48 hours, in the place's local time
Hour	Conditions	Temperature	Feels like	Precipitation	Wind	Humidity	Cloud cover	UV index
Sun 8a	Sunny	49°9° (likely 41°5° to 50°10°)	47°8°	5%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	68%	0%	1
Sun 9a	Sunny	54°12° (likely 50°10° to 55°13°)	54°12°	5%	3 mph5 km/h from E, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	57%	3%	2
Sun 10a	Sunny	57°14° (likely 56°13° to 59°15°)	57°14°	5%	3 mph5 km/h from SW, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	53%	2%	3
Sun 11a	Sunny	59°15° (likely 59°15° to 61°16°)	59°15°	5%	3 mph5 km/h from SW, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	49%	8%	5
Sun 12p	Sunny	61°16° (likely 61°16° to 63°17°)	61°16°	5%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	46%	2%	5
Sun 1p	Sunny	63°17° (likely 63°17° to 65°18°)	63°17°	5%	6 mph10 km/h from W, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	41%	1%	6
Sun 2p	Sunny	63°17° (likely 63°17° to 65°18°)	63°17°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from W, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	41%	12%	5
Sun 3p	Sunny	63°17° (likely 63°17° to 65°18°)	63°17°	5%	6 mph10 km/h from W, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	41%	2%	4
Sun 4p	Sunny	64°18° (likely 62°17° to 64°18°)	64°18°	5%	6 mph10 km/h from W, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	40%	1%	2
Sun 5p	Sunny	61°16° (likely 60°16° to 62°17°)	61°16°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from W, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	46%	0%	1
Sun 6p	Clear	58°14° (likely 55°13° to 59°15°)	58°14°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NW, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	49%	0%	0
Sun 7p	Clear	55°13° (likely 49°9° to 56°13°)	55°13°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from N, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	55%	0%	0
Sun 8p	Clear	50°10° (likely 45°7° to 53°12°)	48°9°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from N, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	71%	0%	0
Sun 9p	Clear	49°9° (likely 43°6° to 52°11°)	47°8°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph12 km/h	74%	0%	0
Sun 10p	Clear	48°9° (likely 42°6° to 52°11°)	45°7°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph12 km/h	71%	0%	0
Sun 11p	Clear	48°9° (likely 41°5° to 51°11°)	45°7°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from NE, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	68%	4%	0
Mon 12a	Clear	47°8° (likely 41°5° to 50°10°)	44°7°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from NE, gusts 8 mph14 km/h	71%	6%	0
Mon 1a	Clear	46°8° (likely 40°4° to 50°10°)	43°6°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from NE, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	73%	2%	0
Mon 2a	Clear	46°8° (likely 39°4° to 50°10°)	43°6°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from NE, gusts 10 mph15 km/h	71%	1%	0
Mon 3a	Clear	45°7° (likely 39°4° to 48°9°)	43°6°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	70%	2%	0
Mon 4a	Clear	45°7° (likely 38°3° to 47°8°)	43°6°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	70%	5%	0
Mon 5a	Mostly clear	44°7° (likely 37°3° to 46°8°)	41°5°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from NE, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	70%	9%	0
Mon 6a	Clear	43°6° (likely 37°3° to 46°8°)	39°4°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from NE, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	73%	6%	0
Mon 7a	Sunny	45°7° (likely 36°2° to 46°8°)	43°6°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	68%	6%	0
Mon 8a	Sunny	49°9° (likely 42°6° to 50°10°)	48°9°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	58%	5%	1
Mon 9a	Sunny	55°13° (likely 51°11° to 57°14°)	55°13°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from E, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	49%	7%	2
Mon 10a	Sunny	60°16° (likely 58°14° to 63°17°)	60°16°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	42%	9%	3
Mon 11a	Sunny	63°17° (likely 62°17° to 66°19°)	63°17°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SE, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	39%	11%	5
Mon 12p	Mostly sunny	66°19° (likely 66°19° to 68°20°)	66°19°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SE, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	34%	12%	5
Mon 1p	Mostly sunny	67°19° (likely 67°19° to 69°21°)	67°19°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from S, gusts 9 mph15 km/h	32%	14%	5
Mon 2p	Sunny	67°19° (likely 67°19° to 70°21°)	67°19°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from S, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	32%	18%	5
Mon 3p	Partly sunny	68°20° (likely 67°19° to 70°21°)	68°20°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from S, gusts 7 mph12 km/h	32%	40%	4
Mon 4p	Mostly sunny	67°19° (likely 66°19° to 69°21°)	67°19°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	34%	34%	2
Mon 5p	Sunny	64°18° (likely 63°17° to 66°19°)	64°18°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SW, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	41%	35%	1
Mon 6p	Clear	61°16° (likely 56°13° to 62°17°)	61°16°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from S, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	44%	33%	0
Mon 7p	Clear	56°13° (likely 51°11° to 59°15°)	56°13°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	53%	1%	0
Mon 8p	Clear	52°11° (likely 46°8° to 57°14°)	52°11°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	63%	0%	0
Mon 9p	Clear	50°10° (likely 44°7° to 56°13°)	48°9°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	68%	0%	0
Mon 10p	Clear	49°9° (likely 43°6° to 54°12°)	47°8°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph10 km/h	68%	0%	0
Mon 11p	Clear	49°9° (likely 42°6° to 54°12°)	47°8°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	66%	0%	0
Tue 12a	Clear	48°9° (likely 40°4° to 53°12°)	46°8°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	65%	0%	0
Tue 1a	Clear	48°9° (likely 39°4° to 52°11°)	47°8°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	65%	0%	0
Tue 2a	Clear	47°8° (likely 38°3° to 52°11°)	46°8°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	65%	0%	0
Tue 3a	Clear	46°8° (likely 37°3° to 51°11°)	45°7°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	65%	0%	0
Tue 4a	Clear	46°8° (likely 36°2° to 50°10°)	44°7°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	63%	0%	0
Tue 5a	Clear	46°8° (likely 35°2° to 50°10°)	44°7°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	63%	0%	0
Tue 6a	Clear	47°8° (likely 33°1° to 47°8°)	45°7°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	60%	0%	0
Tue 7a	Sunny	49°9° (likely 33°1° to 49°9°)	47°8°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from E, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	56%	2%	0

Days ahead

Shaded: typical range for these dates (1991–2020)

Today, Oct 25. Sunny. High 65°18°, low 43°6°. Typical 73°23° / 38°3°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 49°9°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 64°18°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 50°10°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 44°7°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Today: Sunny. High near 65, with temperatures falling to around 61 in the afternoon. West wind 3 to 7 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Northeast wind around 6 mph.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
63°17°–65°18°
Low, likely
37°3°–45°7°
Typical high / low
73°23° / 38°3°
Wind
9 mph15 km/h, gusts 15 mph24 km/h
UV peak
6
Tomorrow, Oct 26. Mostly sunny. High 69°21°, low 45°7°. Typical 72°22° / 37°3°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 49°9°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Partly sunny, 68°20°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 52°11°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 46°8°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny. High near 69, with temperatures falling to around 64 in the afternoon. Southeast wind around 6 mph.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45. East wind around 5 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
68°20°–70°21°
Low, likely
36°2°–46°8°
Typical high / low
72°22° / 37°3°
Wind
10 mph16 km/h, gusts 17 mph28 km/h
UV peak
5
Tuesday, Oct 27. Sunny. High 70°21°, low 47°8°. Typical 72°22° / 37°3°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 46°8°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 68°20°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 50°10°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 41°5°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 70. Southeast wind around 6 mph.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47. East wind around 6 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
68°20°–70°21°
Low, likely
34°1°–47°8°
Typical high / low
72°22° / 37°3°
Wind
9 mph14 km/h, gusts 15 mph25 km/h
UV peak
5
Wednesday, Oct 28. Cloudy. High 69°21°, low 49°9°. Typical 72°22° / 36°2°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 46°8°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 69°20°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 53°12°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Partly cloudy, 46°8°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Southeast wind 3 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph.
Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. East wind around 6 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
68°20°–71°22°
Low, likely
35°2°–49°9°
Typical high / low
72°22° / 36°2°
Wind
7 mph11 km/h, gusts 17 mph27 km/h
UV peak
5
Thursday, Oct 29. Cloudy. High 67°19°, low 51°11°. Typical 72°22° / 36°2°. Rain 0.01 in0.3 mm, 30% chance. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 51°11°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 70°21°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 54°12°
  30% chance
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 50°10°
  50% chance
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: A chance of rain showers after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 67. Southeast wind 3 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Night: Rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
67°19°–71°22°
Low, likely
45°7°–51°11°
Typical high / low
72°22° / 36°2°
Wind
8 mph12 km/h, gusts 17 mph27 km/h
UV peak
4
Friday, Oct 30. Thunderstorms. High 59°15°, low 50°10°. Typical 71°22° / 36°2°. Storms 0.65 in17 mm, 80% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Drizzle, 51°11°
  60% chance · 0.11 in2.9 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 57°14°
  70% chance · 0.32 in8.2 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 52°11°
  60% chance · 0.17 in4.3 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 48°9°
  60% chance · 0.06 in1.6 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Rain showers before 11am, then showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Night: Showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
54°12°–64°18°
Low, likely
48°9°–52°11°
Typical high / low
71°22° / 36°2°
Wind
6 mph9 km/h, gusts 20 mph32 km/h
UV peak
4
Saturday, Oct 31. Thunderstorms. High 56°13°, low 48°9°. Typical 71°22° / 36°2°. Storms 0.23 in5.8 mm, 70% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Partly sunny, 51°11°
  50% chance · 0.04 in1 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 61°16°
  50% chance
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 51°11°
  40% chance
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 48°9°
  60% chance
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. South wind 3 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
56°13°–64°18°
Low, likely
44°7°–51°11°
Typical high / low
71°22° / 36°2°
Wind
6 mph10 km/h, gusts 15 mph25 km/h
UV peak
5
Sunday, Nov 1. Showers. High 54°12°, low 47°8°. Typical 70°21° / 35°2°. Rain 1.4 in35 mm, 70% chance. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Rain, 50°10°
  70% chance · 0.32 in8.2 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Rain, 53°12°
  70% chance · 0.78 in20 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 49°10°
  70% chance · 0.18 in4.6 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 45°7°
  60% chance · 0.04 in1.1 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
53°12°–56°13°
Low, likely
41°5°–51°11°
Typical high / low
70°21° / 35°2°
Wind
8 mph12 km/h, gusts 27 mph44 km/h
Monday, Nov 2. Drizzle. High 59°15°, low 41°5°. Typical 70°21° / 35°2°. Rain 0.11 in2.8 mm, 60% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Partly sunny, 47°9°
  50% chance · 0.02 in0.6 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 59°15°
  40% chance
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 46°8°
  30% chance
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 38°3°
  20% chance
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
55°13°–63°17°
Low, likely
34°1°–50°10°
Typical high / low
70°21° / 35°2°
Wind
10 mph15 km/h, gusts 26 mph41 km/h
UV peak
4
Tuesday, Nov 3. Mostly sunny. High 62°17°, low 39°4°. Typical 70°21° / 35°2°. Rain, 20% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Mostly sunny, 44°7°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 61°16°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 48°9°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
53°12°–70°21°
Low, likely
30°−1°–47°8°
Typical high / low
70°21° / 35°2°
Wind
6 mph9 km/h, gusts 21 mph34 km/h
UV peak
5

10 days15 days30 days

The outlook

Today
Dry, high 65°, low 43°.
Tomorrow
Dry, high 69°, low 45°, warming up.
Tuesday
Dry, high 70°, low 47°.
Rest of week
Highs 54–69°; chance of precipitation on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday.

Want the meteorologists’ reasoning? Read the NWS forecast discussion (FGZ) (opens in a new tab)

What changed since yesterday

No meaningful changes from yesterday’s forecast.

Radar

Radar data: NOAA MRMS, rendered by forecast.blue

Radar loads when scrolled into view

Full-screen radar

Rivers

NOAA river gauges within 25 mi

Tonto Creek near Roosevelt

14 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 2.7 ft
Flow: 156 cfs

Forecast peak 2.8 ft Sun 8 AM

Reading from Sun 6:15 AM · NWS gauge page

East Verde River near Childs

18 mi

Level: 12.9 ft
Flow: 208 cfs

Reading from Sun 7:30 AM · NWS gauge page

Fossil Creek near Strawberry

22 mi

Level: 4.1 ft
Flow: 60 cfs

Reading from Sun 6:30 AM · NWS gauge page

Verde River above Horseshoe Dam

23 mi

Level: 10.3 ft
Flow: 2,340 cfs

Reading from Sun 7:15 AM · NWS gauge page

For your home

What this week’s weather means for heating, cooling, pipes and fresh air.

Heating this week

About 71% less heating than a typical week.

This week 22Typical 76

Heating degree days, base 65°F

Heat-pump hours, next 7 days

h below 47°F: 13
h below 17°F: 0
h below 5°F: 0

47, 17 and 5°F are the test points heat pumps are rated at.

Comfort

Dry air outside (dew point 37°F).

Open the windows?

Today, 12:00 PM–5:00 PM

Good stretch to open the windows (air quality forecast not available for part of this window).

Is this typical?

Payson · official normals 1991–2020 · records 1940–2026

Oct 25, today vs a typical year

Today’s expected high is 8°4° colder than typical.

Last 7 days vs normal

On average 2°1° warmer than normal (daily mean temperature).

±0°MonOct 19
+2°+1°TueOct 20
+9°+5°WedOct 21
+5°+3°ThuOct 22
−2°−1°FriOct 23
−2°−1°SatOct 24
—SunOct 25

Oxbow Estates weather by month: normals, records, snow and freeze dates

Sun & moon

Sun

Daylight: 11 h 0 min; Losing 1 min 57 s a day; shortest Dec 21, 1 h 8 min less
Golden hour: 5:04–5:55 PM; Morning 6:23–7:13 AM
Blue hour: 5:55–6:04 PM; Morning 6:13–6:23 AM; first light 6:13 AM

Stars tonight? Fair

Clear 6:04 PM–6:14 AM, but the moon is 100% lit and up.

Moon

Waxing gibbous

99% lit · growing

Today: sets 6:07 AM · rises 5:10 PM
Full moon: Today, 9:12 PM
New moon: Nov 9

Looking northeast from Oxbow Estates. The highest point on the skyline is about 8,000 ft, 19 mi away.Skyline from USGS elevation data, heights drawn up to 6× taller. Sky, sun and moon as they are now.