Hydrologic Outlook
Ends in 11 h 30 min
When
Until Sun 6:15 AM
Where
Hawaii in Hawaii, HI; Oahu in Honolulu, HI; Kauai, HI; Maui, HI
Issued for this county · National Weather Service Honolulu HI
Full alert textHide details
ESFHFO
A significant pattern change is expected Monday night through at least Thursday as deep tropical moisture is brought north. A combination of surface lows and troughs will bring exceptionally moist air over the eastern end of the state beginning Monday night and extending to all islands Tuesday. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible throughout this period. Models have not converged on details yet, so exact locations, timing, and rainfall amounts are not certain. Please be prepared for periods of heavy rain this coming week.
Keep up to date with the latest forecast information through the Internet (weather.gov/hawaii), local media, social media, or NOAA Weather Radio broadcasts.
An updated outlook will be issued Sunday by 6 AM HST or sooner if necessary.
Areas: Hawaii in Hawaii, HI; Oahu in Honolulu, HI; Kauai, HI; Maui, HI
See it on weather.gov (opens in a new tab)

Model estimate for 6:00 PM HST (no recent station report)

Kilauea, HI weather

Showery and 76°24°.

Mostly agree

Now 76°24°

Showers

Wind: 10 mph16 km/hgusts 16 mph25 km/h; From the northeast. 58–10 mph16 km/h through 6 AM
Dew point: 65°18°; Muggy
UV tomorrow: 5Moderate; Moderate 10 AM–4 PM · peak 5

None rain now, through the next 2 hours.

From forecast models

Next 48 hours

Good hours for

Low 71°22° tonight at 3 AM
High 81°27° tomorrow at noon

TonightDown to 71°22° by 3 AM · Mostly cloudy · rain chance 30%
Tomorrow morningUp to 80°27° by 11 AM · Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow afternoonNear 80°27° · Cloudy
Tomorrow nightDown to 70°21° by 3 AM · Mostly cloudy
Monday morningUp to 80°27° by 11 AM · Mostly cloudy
Monday afternoonNear 80°27° · Mostly cloudy · rain chance 20%

Hourly forecast, next 48 hours, in the place's local time
Hour	Conditions	Temperature	Feels like	Precipitation	Wind	Humidity	Cloud cover	UV index
Sat 6p	Showers	76°24° (likely 73°23° to 76°24°)	76°24°	30%, 0.01 in0.3 mm	10 mph16 km/h from NE, gusts 16 mph25 km/h	70%	85%	0
Sat 7p	Showers	74°23° (likely 73°23° to 75°24°)	74°23°	30%, 0.01 in0.3 mm	10 mph16 km/h from NE, gusts 15 mph24 km/h	73%	71%	0
Sat 8p	Showers	73°23° (likely 73°23° to 75°24°)	73°23°	30%, 0.01 in0.3 mm	7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 14 mph23 km/h	75%	58%	0
Sat 9p	Showers	73°23° (likely 72°22° to 74°23°)	73°23°	30%, 0.01 in0.3 mm	7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 13 mph20 km/h	73%	63%	0
Sat 10p	Showers	73°23° (likely 71°22° to 75°24°)	73°23°	30%, 0.01 in0.3 mm	7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	71%	57%	0
Sat 11p	Showers	73°23° (likely 70°21° to 75°24°)	73°23°	30%, 0.01 in0.3 mm	7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 9 mph15 km/h	70%	58%	0
Sun 12a	Showers	72°22° (likely 70°21° to 75°24°)	72°22°	20%	7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	69%	58%	0
Sun 1a	Showers	72°22° (likely 70°21° to 75°24°)	72°22°	20%	7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	68%	59%	0
Sun 2a	Showers	72°22° (likely 70°21° to 75°24°)	72°22°	20%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	69%	57%	0
Sun 3a	Showers	71°22° (likely 70°21° to 75°24°)	71°22°	20%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	70%	61%	0
Sun 4a	Showers	71°22° (likely 69°21° to 74°23°)	71°22°	20%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 10 mph17 km/h	72%	67%	0
Sun 5a	Showers	71°22° (likely 70°21° to 74°23°)	71°22°	20%	7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 10 mph17 km/h	73%	66%	0
Sun 6a	Mostly cloudy	71°22° (likely 71°22° to 74°23°)	71°22°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 9 mph15 km/h	75%	41%	0
Sun 7a	Mostly cloudy	71°22° (likely 71°22° to 73°23°)	71°22°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	77%	58%	0
Sun 8a	Mostly cloudy	72°22° (likely 72°22° to 74°23°)	72°22°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 10 mph16 km/h	75%	69%	1
Sun 9a	Mostly cloudy	75°24° (likely 73°23° to 75°24°)	75°24°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 12 mph19 km/h	69%	71%	2
Sun 10a	Drizzle	77°25° (likely 72°22° to 77°25°)	77°25°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from NE, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	62%	86%	3
Sun 11a	Drizzle	80°27° (likely 73°23° to 80°27°)	81°27°	5%	9 mph14 km/h from NE, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	57%	88%	5
Sun 12p	Drizzle	81°27° (likely 73°23° to 81°27°)	82°28°	5%	9 mph14 km/h from NE, gusts 12 mph19 km/h	56%	88%	5
Sun 1p	Drizzle	81°27° (likely 74°23° to 81°27°)	83°28°	5%	9 mph14 km/h from NE, gusts 13 mph21 km/h	57%	94%	5
Sun 2p	Drizzle	81°27° (likely 74°23° to 81°27°)	83°28°	5%	9 mph14 km/h from NE, gusts 14 mph23 km/h	58%	92%	5
Sun 3p	Mostly cloudy	81°27° (likely 74°23° to 81°27°)	83°28°	5%	9 mph14 km/h from NE, gusts 14 mph23 km/h	58%	91%	3
Sun 4p	Mostly cloudy	80°27° (likely 73°23° to 80°27°)	81°27°	5%	9 mph14 km/h from NE, gusts 13 mph21 km/h	60%	90%	2
Sun 5p	Cloudy	78°26° (likely 73°23° to 78°26°)	78°26°	5%	8 mph13 km/h from ENE, gusts 12 mph19 km/h	63%	85%	1
Sun 6p	Mostly cloudy	75°24° (likely 73°23° to 75°24°)	75°24°	5%	8 mph13 km/h from ENE, gusts 10 mph16 km/h	69%	58%	0
Sun 7p	Mostly cloudy	73°23° (likely 72°22° to 74°23°)	73°23°	5%	8 mph13 km/h from ENE, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	74%	48%	0
Sun 8p	Mostly cloudy	72°22° (likely 71°22° to 74°23°)	72°22°	5%	8 mph13 km/h from ENE, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	77%	56%	0
Sun 9p	Cloudy	72°22° (likely 71°22° to 74°23°)	72°22°	5%	8 mph13 km/h from ENE, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	76%	71%	0
Sun 10p	Mostly cloudy	72°22° (likely 71°22° to 74°23°)	72°22°	5%	8 mph13 km/h from ENE, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	75%	65%	0
Sun 11p	Mostly cloudy	72°22° (likely 71°22° to 74°23°)	72°22°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from ENE, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	75%	72%	0
Mon 12a	Mostly cloudy	71°22° (likely 71°22° to 74°23°)	71°22°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from ENE, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	75%	74%	0
Mon 1a	Mostly cloudy	71°22° (likely 71°22° to 74°23°)	71°22°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from ENE, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	75%	79%	0
Mon 2a	Cloudy	71°22° (likely 70°21° to 73°23°)	71°22°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from ENE, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	76%	78%	0
Mon 3a	Cloudy	70°21° (likely 70°21° to 73°23°)	70°21°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from ENE, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	77%	89%	0
Mon 4a	Cloudy	70°21° (likely 70°21° to 72°22°)	70°21°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from ENE, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	78%	78%	0
Mon 5a	Cloudy	70°21° (likely 70°21° to 72°22°)	70°21°	5%	6 mph10 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	78%	86%	0
Mon 6a	Mostly cloudy	70°21° (likely 70°21° to 72°22°)	70°21°	5%	6 mph10 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	79%	88%	0
Mon 7a	Mostly cloudy	70°21° (likely 70°21° to 72°22°)	70°21°	5%	6 mph10 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	81%	78%	0
Mon 8a	Mostly cloudy	71°22° (likely 71°22° to 73°23°)	71°22°	5%	6 mph10 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	77%	71%	1
Mon 9a	Mostly cloudy	74°23° (likely 73°23° to 76°24°)	74°23°	5%	6 mph10 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	70%	68%	2
Mon 10a	Mostly cloudy	77°25° (likely 74°23° to 78°26°)	77°25°	5%	6 mph10 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph14 km/h	63%	70%	4
Mon 11a	Cloudy	80°27° (likely 75°24° to 80°27°)	81°27°	5%	8 mph13 km/h from E, gusts 10 mph15 km/h	57%	77%	5
Mon 12p	Showers	81°27° (likely 75°24° to 81°27°)	82°28°	20%	8 mph13 km/h from E, gusts 11 mph17 km/h	54%	79%	7
Mon 1p	Cloudy	81°27° (likely 75°24° to 81°27°)	82°28°	20%	8 mph13 km/h from E, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	53%	77%	5
Mon 2p	Showers	81°27° (likely 75°24° to 81°27°)	82°28°	20%	8 mph13 km/h from E, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	53%	77%	6
Mon 3p	Cloudy	81°27° (likely 75°24° to 81°27°)	82°28°	20%	8 mph13 km/h from E, gusts 12 mph19 km/h	53%	78%	4
Mon 4p	Showers	80°27° (likely 75°24° to 80°27°)	81°27°	20%	8 mph13 km/h from E, gusts 12 mph19 km/h	56%	85%	2
Mon 5p	Cloudy	78°26° (likely 74°23° to 78°26°)	78°26°	20%	7 mph11 km/h from E, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	60%	85%	1

Days ahead

Tap a day for its hours and the official wording.

Today, Oct 24. Showers. High 76°24°, low 71°22°. Rain 0.28 in7.1 mm, 90% chance. Mostly agree.
1. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Showers, 73°23°
  30% chance · 0.06 in1.5 mm
2. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Showers, 71°22°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Tonight: Scattered rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
75°24°–79°26°
Low, likely
70°21°–74°23°
Wind
12 mph20 km/h, gusts 28 mph44 km/h
UV peak
4
Tomorrow, Oct 25. Mostly cloudy. High 81°27°, low 70°21°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Mostly cloudy, 72°22°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Mostly cloudy, 81°27°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 72°22°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 70°21°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Northeast wind around 9 mph.
Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. East northeast wind around 8 mph.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
75°24°–81°27°
Low, likely
69°21°–72°22°
Wind
10 mph17 km/h, gusts 22 mph35 km/h
UV peak
5
Monday, Oct 26. Mostly cloudy. High 81°27°, low 71°22°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Mostly cloudy, 71°22°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 81°27°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 73°23°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 72°22°
  20% chance · 0.04 in1 mm
Official NWS forecast
Day: Isolated rain showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Night: Scattered rain showers. Cloudy, with a low around 71. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
75°24°–81°27°
Low, likely
70°21°–72°22°
Wind
8 mph13 km/h, gusts 20 mph32 km/h
UV peak
7
Tuesday, Oct 27. Showers. High 81°27°, low 72°22°. Rain 0.81 in21 mm, 50% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Showers, 73°23°
  40% chance · 0.05 in1.3 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Showers, 74°23°
  50% chance · 0.55 in14 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 71°22°
  50% chance · 0.18 in4.6 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 72°22°
  50% chance · 0.02 in0.5 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Scattered rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 81. East wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Night: Scattered rain showers. Cloudy, with a low around 72. East wind around 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
73°23°–81°27°
Low, likely
66°19°–74°23°
Wind
12 mph19 km/h, gusts 18 mph29 km/h
Wednesday, Oct 28. Showers. High 81°27°, low 73°23°. Rain 0.1 in2.5 mm, 60% chance. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 72°22°
  50% chance · 0.02 in0.4 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 76°24°
  50% chance · 0.01 in0.3 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 74°23°
  50% chance · 0.04 in0.9 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 73°23°
  60% chance · 0.04 in0.9 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: A chance of rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 81. East wind 7 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Night: A chance of rain showers before midnight, then showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a low around 73. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
74°23°–81°27°
Low, likely
67°19°–74°23°
Wind
10 mph16 km/h, gusts 24 mph39 km/h
UV peak
2
Thursday, Oct 29. Thunderstorms. High 82°28°, low 73°23°. Storms 0.31 in7.9 mm, 80% chance. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Drizzle, 74°24°
  60% chance · 0.07 in1.8 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 76°25°
  70% chance · 0.12 in3 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 74°24°
  70% chance · 0.08 in2.1 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 74°23°
  60% chance · 0.06 in1.6 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a high near 82. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Night: Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a low around 73. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
75°24°–82°28°
Low, likely
71°22°–75°24°
Wind
11 mph18 km/h, gusts 26 mph42 km/h
UV peak
3
Friday, Oct 30. Showers. High 83°28°, low 72°22°. Rain 0.24 in6.1 mm, 80% chance. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Drizzle, 74°24°
  60% chance · 0.08 in1.9 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 78°26°
  60% chance · 0.07 in1.8 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 75°24°
  60% chance · 0.05 in1.1 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 73°23°
  50% chance · 0.03 in0.8 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
77°25°–83°28°
Low, likely
71°22°–75°24°
Wind
14 mph22 km/h, gusts 26 mph42 km/h
UV peak
5
Saturday, Oct 31. Mostly cloudy. High 83°28°, low 73°23°. Rain 0.34 in8.6 mm, 40% chance. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Drizzle, 75°24°
  50% chance · 0.1 in2.7 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Showers, 77°25°
  50% chance · 0.15 in3.7 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 75°24°
  50% chance · 0.16 in4 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 74°23°
  40% chance · 0.23 in5.9 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
76°24°–83°28°
Low, likely
68°20°–76°24°
Wind
10 mph17 km/h, gusts 22 mph35 km/h
UV peak
3
Sunday, Nov 1. Drizzle. High 77°25°, low 74°23°. Rain 0.72 in18 mm, 50% chance. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Drizzle, 75°24°
  40% chance · 0.16 in4 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 77°25°
  50% chance · 0.12 in3 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 76°24°
  40% chance · 0.06 in1.4 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 75°24°
  40% chance
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
77°25°–79°26°
Low, likely
71°22°–77°25°
Wind
12 mph19 km/h
UV peak
3
Monday, Nov 2. Drizzle. High 77°25°, low 74°23°. Rain 0.04 in1 mm, 40% chance. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Drizzle, 76°24°
  40% chance · 0.02 in0.5 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 77°25°
  40% chance · 0.02 in0.5 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 75°24°
  30% chance
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
75°24°–79°26°
Low, likely
72°22°–76°24°
Wind
18 mph29 km/h, gusts 26 mph42 km/h
UV peak
4

10 days15 days30 days

The outlook

Today
88% chance of rain, high 76°, low 71°.
Tomorrow
Dry, high 81°, low 70°, warming up.
Monday
Dry, high 81°, low 71°.
Rest of week
Highs 77–83°; chance of precipitation on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Sunday, Monday.

Want the meteorologists’ reasoning? Read the NWS forecast discussion (HFO) (opens in a new tab)

What changed since yesterday

No meaningful changes from yesterday’s forecast.

Radar

Radar data: NOAA MRMS, rendered by forecast.blue

Radar loads when scrolled into view

Full-screen radar

Rivers

NOAA river gauges within 25 mi

Kaloko Reservoir near Kilauea

2.6 mi

Level: 19.8 ft

Reading from Sat 5:35 PM · NWS gauge page

Halaulani Stream near Kilauea

2.6 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 1.0 ft
Flow: 7 cfs

Reading from Sat 5:35 PM · NWS gauge page

Hanalei River near Hanalei

4.9 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 0.5 ft
Flow: 319 cfs

Reading from Sat 4:55 PM · NWS gauge page

Hanalei River at Hanalei River Bridge

4.9 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 6.8 ft

Reading from Sat 5:10 PM · NWS gauge page

Sun & moon

Sun

Daylight: 11 h 28 min; Losing 1 min 10 s a day; shortest Dec 21, 41 min less
Golden hour: 5:34–6:19 PM; Morning 6:23–7:08 AM
Blue hour: 6:19–6:28 PM; Morning 6:15–6:23 AM; first light 6:15 AM

Stars tonight? Poor

Clouds most of the night (about 62% cover).

Moon

Waxing gibbous

99% lit · growing

Today: sets 5:12 AM · rises 5:06 PM
Full moon: Oct 25
New moon: Nov 8

Looking southwest from Kilauea. The highest point on the skyline is about 5,200 ft, 12 mi away.Skyline from USGS elevation data, heights drawn up to 3.5× taller. Sky, sun and moon as they are now.

1 active weather alert

Hydrologic Outlook

Kilauea, HI weather

Next 2 hours

Next 48 hours

Days ahead

The outlook

Today

Tomorrow

Monday

Rest of week

What changed since yesterday

Radar

Rivers

Kaloko Reservoir near Kilauea

Halaulani Stream near Kilauea

Hanalei River near Hanalei

Hanalei River at Hanalei River Bridge

Sun & moon

Sun

Stars tonight? Poor

Moon