Observed 4:35 PM EDT at KCVX

Ellsworth, MI weather

Sunny and 68°20°, 15°8° warmer than a typical Oct 24, jacket by 9 PM.

Mostly agree

Now 68°20°

Sunny

Wind: 9 mph15 km/h; From the south. 58–9 mph15 km/h through 5 AM
Dew point: 46°8°; Comfortable
UV tomorrow: 3Moderate; Moderate 1–4 PM · peak 3
Air quality: 51Moderate; Main pollutant: Ozone
Pressure: 30.36 inHg1028 hPa; Falling slowly · −0.03 inHg−1.1 hPa in 3 h

No precipitation expected in the next 2 hours.

From forecast models

Next 48 hours

11°6° warmer than this time yesterday (57°14° then, 68°20° now)

Good hours for

Dry until tomorrow 5 PM
Below 60°16° tonight after 8 PM
Low 51°11° tomorrow at 6 AM
Rain tomorrow 5–8 PM (30%)

TonightDown to 52°11° by midnight · Partly cloudy
Tomorrow morningUp to 59°15° by 11 AM · rain chance 20% · Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow afternoonNear 62°17° · Rain 5–6 PM (30%)
Tomorrow nightDown to 47°8° by 4 AM · Rain 6–8 PM (30%)
Monday morningNear 48°9° · Cloudy
Monday afternoonNear 51°11° · Mostly cloudy

Hourly forecast, next 48 hours, in the place's local time
Hour	Conditions	Temperature	Feels like	Precipitation	Wind	Humidity	Cloud cover	UV index
Sat 5p	Sunny	66°19° (likely 64°18° to 68°20°)	66°19°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 15 mph25 km/h	54%	36%	1
Sat 6p	Partly sunny	64°18° (likely 61°16° to 65°18°)	64°18°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 11 mph17 km/h	56%	24%	0
Sat 7p	Mostly clear	62°17° (likely 57°14° to 62°17°)	62°17°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 10 mph16 km/h	60%	26%	0
Sat 8p	Mostly clear	59°15° (likely 54°12° to 59°15°)	59°15°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 12 mph19 km/h	67%	57%	0
Sat 9p	Clear	55°13° (likely 53°12° to 57°14°)	55°13°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 13 mph20 km/h	77%	14%	0
Sat 10p	Clear	54°12° (likely 54°12° to 56°13°)	54°12°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 13 mph20 km/h	80%	9%	0
Sat 11p	Clear	53°12° (likely 53°12° to 55°13°)	53°12°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 14 mph22 km/h	80%	4%	0
Sun 12a	Clear	52°11° (likely 52°11° to 54°12°)	52°11°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 14 mph22 km/h	80%	19%	0
Sun 1a	Cloudy	52°11° (likely 52°11° to 54°12°)	52°11°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 13 mph21 km/h	80%	61%	0
Sun 2a	Cloudy	52°11° (likely 52°11° to 54°12°)	52°11°	5%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 14 mph22 km/h	77%	67%	0
Sun 3a	Cloudy	52°11° (likely 52°11° to 53°12°)	52°11°	5%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 15 mph24 km/h	77%	71%	0
Sun 4a	Cloudy	52°11° (likely 51°11° to 53°12°)	52°11°	5%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 12 mph20 km/h	77%	76%	0
Sun 5a	Cloudy	52°11° (likely 51°11° to 53°12°)	52°11°	5%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 12 mph20 km/h	77%	80%	0
Sun 6a	Cloudy	51°11° (likely 51°11° to 53°12°)	51°11°	5%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 14 mph23 km/h	80%	80%	0
Sun 7a	Cloudy	52°11° (likely 50°10° to 54°12°)	52°11°	5%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 14 mph23 km/h	77%	86%	0
Sun 8a	Cloudy	53°12° (likely 50°10° to 54°12°)	53°12°	10%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 15 mph23 km/h	77%	85%	0
Sun 9a	Cloudy	53°12° (likely 53°12° to 55°13°)	53°12°	10%	10 mph16 km/h from SW, gusts 14 mph22 km/h	80%	83%	0
Sun 10a	Cloudy	56°13° (likely 56°13° to 57°14°)	56°13°	10%	10 mph16 km/h from SW, gusts 19 mph30 km/h	77%	89%	1
Sun 11a	Cloudy	59°15° (likely 59°15° to 61°16°)	59°15°	20%	10 mph16 km/h from SW, gusts 19 mph30 km/h	75%	82%	1
Sun 12p	Cloudy	61°16° (likely 60°16° to 63°17°)	61°16°	20%	10 mph16 km/h from SW, gusts 18 mph29 km/h	72%	90%	2
Sun 1p	Cloudy	64°18° (likely 62°17° to 65°18°)	64°18°	20%	10 mph16 km/h from W, gusts 16 mph26 km/h	65%	90%	3
Sun 2p	Cloudy	64°18° (likely 62°17° to 66°19°)	64°18°	30%, 0.01 in0.3 mm	10 mph16 km/h from W, gusts 19 mph31 km/h	65%	89%	3
Sun 3p	Cloudy	64°18° (likely 59°15° to 66°19°)	64°18°	30%, 0.01 in0.3 mm	10 mph16 km/h from NW, gusts 15 mph25 km/h	67%	86%	3
Sun 4p	Cloudy	64°18° (likely 56°13° to 64°18°)	64°18°	30%, 0.01 in0.3 mm	10 mph16 km/h from NW, gusts 13 mph21 km/h	65%	86%	2
Sun 5p	Cloudy	62°17° (likely 54°12° to 62°17°)	62°17°	30%, 0.01 in0.3 mm	10 mph16 km/h from NW, gusts 12 mph20 km/h	70%	98%	1
Sun 6p	Cloudy	61°16° (likely 53°12° to 61°16°)	61°16°	30%, 0.01 in0.3 mm	5 mph8 km/h from NW, gusts 10 mph16 km/h	72%	91%	1
Sun 7p	Cloudy	57°14° (likely 52°11° to 57°14°)	57°14°	30%, 0.01 in0.3 mm	5 mph8 km/h from N, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	80%	100%	0
Sun 8p	Cloudy	53°12° (likely 51°11° to 56°13°)	53°12°	40%	5 mph8 km/h from N, gusts 11 mph17 km/h	93%	99%	0
Sun 9p	Cloudy	52°11° (likely 51°11° to 55°13°)	52°11°	40%	5 mph8 km/h from N, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	93%	99%	0
Sun 10p	Cloudy	50°10° (likely 50°10° to 54°12°)	49°9°	40%	5 mph8 km/h from N, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	96%	99%	0
Sun 11p	Cloudy	50°10° (likely 50°10° to 53°12°)	49°9°	20%	5 mph8 km/h from N, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	89%	99%	0
Mon 12a	Cloudy	49°9° (likely 49°9° to 53°12°)	48°9°	20%	5 mph8 km/h from N, gusts 10 mph16 km/h	89%	98%	0
Mon 1a	Cloudy	48°9° (likely 48°9° to 53°12°)	48°9°	20%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 11 mph17 km/h	86%	95%	0
Mon 2a	Cloudy	48°9° (likely 48°9° to 52°11°)	48°9°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 10 mph17 km/h	80%	94%	0
Mon 3a	Cloudy	48°9° (likely 48°9° to 52°11°)	48°9°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	77%	95%	0
Mon 4a	Cloudy	47°8° (likely 47°8° to 52°11°)	46°8°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from N, gusts 9 mph15 km/h	79%	98%	0
Mon 5a	Cloudy	47°8° (likely 47°8° to 51°11°)	46°8°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from N, gusts 9 mph15 km/h	76%	100%	0
Mon 6a	Cloudy	46°8° (likely 46°8° to 50°10°)	45°7°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from N, gusts 9 mph15 km/h	76%	98%	0
Mon 7a	Cloudy	46°8° (likely 46°8° to 50°10°)	45°7°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from N, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	76%	99%	0
Mon 8a	Cloudy	46°8° (likely 46°8° to 50°10°)	44°7°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from N, gusts 12 mph20 km/h	76%	99%	0
Mon 9a	Cloudy	45°7° (likely 45°7° to 50°10°)	43°6°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from N, gusts 12 mph20 km/h	79%	99%	0
Mon 10a	Cloudy	47°8° (likely 46°8° to 50°10°)	44°7°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from N, gusts 14 mph23 km/h	76%	99%	0
Mon 11a	Cloudy	49°9° (likely 45°7° to 51°11°)	46°8°	0%	10 mph16 km/h from N, gusts 15 mph24 km/h	71%	97%	0
Mon 12p	Cloudy	51°11° (likely 46°8° to 51°11°)	51°11°	0%	10 mph16 km/h from N, gusts 14 mph22 km/h	63%	91%	0
Mon 1p	Cloudy	51°11° (likely 46°8° to 52°11°)	51°11°	0%	10 mph16 km/h from N, gusts 13 mph22 km/h	61%	87%	1
Mon 2p	Cloudy	51°11° (likely 47°8° to 52°11°)	51°11°	0%	10 mph16 km/h from N, gusts 14 mph22 km/h	59%	80%	1
Mon 3p	Cloudy	51°11° (likely 48°9° to 52°11°)	51°11°	0%	10 mph16 km/h from N, gusts 16 mph25 km/h	56%	68%	1
Mon 4p	Partly sunny	50°10° (likely 47°8° to 51°11°)	46°8°	0%	10 mph16 km/h from N, gusts 15 mph24 km/h	56%	69%	1

Days ahead

Shaded: typical range for these dates (1991–2020)

Today, Oct 24. Partly sunny. High 68°20°, low 51°11°. Typical 53°12° / 40°4°. Dry. Mostly agree. Best day outdoors this week.
1. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 59°15°
  Dry
2. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 52°11°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Today: Mostly sunny. High near 68, with temperatures falling to around 66 in the afternoon. South wind around 5 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. South wind around 5 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
Best day outdoors this week: the one dry, mild day the forecasts agree on (high 68°20°).
High, likely
66°19°–69°21°
Low, likely
39°4°–51°11°
Typical high / low
53°12° / 40°4°
Wind
10 mph17 km/h, gusts 18 mph29 km/h
UV peak
3
Tomorrow, Oct 25. Showers. High 66°19°, low 44°7°. Typical 53°12° / 40°4°. Rain 0.02 in0.5 mm, 30% chance. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 53°12°
  20% chance
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 64°18°
  30% chance · 0.04 in1 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 53°12°
  40% chance · 0.02 in0.5 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 47°8°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: A chance of rain showers after 11am. Partly sunny. High near 66, with temperatures falling to around 62 in the afternoon. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Night: A chance of rain showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
62°17°–66°19°
Low, likely
44°7°–52°11°
Typical high / low
53°12° / 40°4°
Wind
13 mph21 km/h, gusts 22 mph36 km/h
UV peak
3
Monday, Oct 26. Mostly cloudy. High 53°12°, low 35°2°. Typical 52°11° / 39°4°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 46°8°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 51°11°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 45°7°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 39°4°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 53. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
51°11°–53°12°
Low, likely
35°2°–43°6°
Typical high / low
52°11° / 39°4°
Wind
13 mph21 km/h, gusts 22 mph35 km/h
UV peak
1
Tuesday, Oct 27. Mostly cloudy. High 55°13°, low 42°6°. Typical 52°11° / 39°4°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 41°5°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 55°13°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Partly cloudy, 51°11°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 48°9°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.
Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
54°12°–56°13°
Low, likely
36°2°–42°6°
Typical high / low
52°11° / 39°4°
Wind
11 mph18 km/h, gusts 26 mph41 km/h
UV peak
3
Wednesday, Oct 28. Cloudy. High 67°19°, low 50°10°. Typical 52°11° / 39°4°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Partly sunny, 52°11°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 66°19°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 60°16°
  20% chance
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 56°13°
  20% chance
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: A slight chance of rain showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 67.
Night: A chance of rain showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
64°18°–68°20°
Low, likely
47°8°–50°10°
Typical high / low
52°11° / 39°4°
Wind
16 mph26 km/h, gusts 34 mph55 km/h
UV peak
3
Thursday, Oct 29. Showers. High 63°17°, low 44°7°. Typical 51°11° / 38°3°. Rain 0.18 in4.6 mm, 40% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Showers, 56°13°
  20% chance · 0.11 in2.9 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 59°15°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 52°11°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 47°8°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 63.
Night: A slight chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
57°14°–66°19°
Low, likely
44°7°–53°12°
Typical high / low
51°11° / 38°3°
Wind
15 mph24 km/h, gusts 35 mph56 km/h
UV peak
1
Friday, Oct 30. Showers. High 63°17°, low 46°8°. Typical 51°11° / 38°3°. Rain 0.04 in1 mm, 30% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 47°8°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 59°15°
  20% chance
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 53°12°
  20% chance
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Showers, 51°11°
  40% chance · 0.08 in2 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 63.
Night: A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
54°12°–65°18°
Low, likely
41°5°–46°8°
Typical high / low
51°11° / 38°3°
Wind
15 mph23 km/h, gusts 26 mph42 km/h
UV peak
3
Saturday, Oct 31. Showers. High 63°17°, low 53°12°. Typical 50°10° / 38°3°. Rain 0.11 in2.8 mm, 40% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 53°12°
  40% chance
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 65°18°
  30% chance · 0.01 in0.3 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 62°17°
  40% chance
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 57°14°
  50% chance · 0.11 in2.7 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
56°13°–69°21°
Low, likely
46°8°–62°17°
Typical high / low
50°10° / 38°3°
Wind
14 mph23 km/h, gusts 28 mph44 km/h
UV peak
2
Sunday, Nov 1. Drizzle. High 63°17°, low 56°13°. Typical 50°10° / 38°3°. Rain 0.33 in8.4 mm, 50% chance. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Drizzle, 58°14°
  50% chance · 0.14 in3.6 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 61°16°
  40% chance · 0.09 in2.3 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 57°14°
  40% chance · 0.05 in1.3 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Showers, 52°11°
  40% chance · 0.22 in5.5 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
61°16°–66°19°
Low, likely
51°11°–60°16°
Typical high / low
50°10° / 38°3°
Wind
19 mph30 km/h, gusts 37 mph59 km/h
Monday, Nov 2. Showers. High 60°16°, low 51°11°. Typical 50°10° / 37°3°. Rain 0.36 in9.1 mm, 40% chance. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Drizzle, 52°11°
  30% chance · 0.07 in1.7 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 56°13°
  30% chance · 0.06 in1.4 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 52°11°
  20% chance · 0.13 in3.4 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
58°14°–61°16°
Low, likely
46°8°–54°12°
Typical high / low
50°10° / 37°3°
Wind
19 mph31 km/h, gusts 34 mph55 km/h

10 days15 days30 days

The outlook

Today
Dry, high 68°, low 51°.
Tomorrow
30% chance of rain, high 66°, low 44°.
Monday
Dry, high 53°, low 35°, cooling off.
Rest of week
Highs 55–67°; chance of precipitation on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday.

Want the meteorologists’ reasoning? Read the NWS forecast discussion (APX) (opens in a new tab)

What changed since yesterday

No meaningful changes from yesterday’s forecast.

Radar

Radar data: NOAA MRMS, rendered by forecast.blue

Radar loads when scrolled into view

Full-screen radar

Rivers

NOAA river gauges within 25 mi

Jordan River (N Lower MI) near East Jordan

8.4 mi

Level: 3.4 ft
Flow: 179 cfs

Reading from Sat 5 PM · NWS gauge page

For your home

What this week’s weather means for heating, cooling, pipes and fresh air.

Heating this week

About 83% less heating than a typical week.

This week 23Typical 137

Heating degree days, base 65°F

Heat-pump hours, next 7 days

h below 47°F: 7
h below 17°F: 0
h below 5°F: 0

47, 17 and 5°F are the test points heat pumps are rated at.

Comfort

Dry air outside (dew point 46°F).

Open the windows?

Today, 6:00 PM–7:00 PM

Good stretch to open the windows.

Is this typical?

Charlevoix · official normals 1991–2020 · records 1891–2026

Oct 24, today vs a typical year

Today’s expected high is 15°8° warmer than typical.

Last 7 days vs normal

On average 4°2° warmer than normal (daily mean temperature).

−3°−2°SunOct 18
+8°+4°MonOct 19
+3°+1°TueOct 20
+6°+3°WedOct 21
+7°+4°ThuOct 22
+2°+1°FriOct 23
+5°+3°SatOct 24

Ellsworth weather by month: normals, records, snow and freeze dates

Sun & moon

Sun

Daylight: 10 h 32 min; Losing 2 min 58 s a day; shortest Dec 21, 1 h 47 min less
Golden hour: 5:59–6:59 PM; Morning 7:50–8:50 AM
Blue hour: 6:59–7:10 PM; Morning 7:38–7:50 AM; first light 7:38 AM

Stars tonight? Fair

Mostly clear 9 PM–1 AM, but the moon is 99% lit and up.

Moon

Waxing gibbous

98% lit · growing

Today: sets 6:19 AM · rises 5:39 PM
Full moon: Oct 26
New moon: Nov 9

Looking south from Ellsworth. The highest point on the skyline is about 3,400 ft, 18 mi away.Skyline from USGS elevation data, heights drawn up to 6× taller. Sky, sun and moon as they are now.