Model estimate for 1:00 PM MDT (no recent station report)

Willow Creek, MT weather

Sunny and 38°3°, 12°7° colder than a typical Oct 24, freeze watch tonight, low 20°−7°.

Mostly agree

Now 38°3°

Sunny

Wind: Calm; Light through 1 AM
Dew point: 37°3°; Comfortable · down to 28°−2° by 9 PM (dry)
Humidity: 97%; Air 38°3°, dew point 37°3° · fog or dew likely
UV index: 3Moderate; Moderate until 3 PM

No precipitation expected in the next 2 hours.

From forecast models

Next 48 hours

Good hours for

High 41°5° today at 3 PM
Hard freeze tonight 8 PM–noon (low 18°−8°)
Below 30°−1° tonight after 9 PM
Above 30°−1° tomorrow by 11 AM
Hard freeze tomorrow night 8 PM–11 AM (low 19°−7°)

This afternoonNear 40°4° · Clear
TonightDown to 21°−6° by 5 AM · freezing, low 21°−6° · Clear
Tomorrow morningUp to 31°−1° by 11 AM · freezing, low 18°−8° · Clear
Tomorrow afternoonUp to 42°6° by 5 PM · Clear
Tomorrow nightDown to 21°−6° by 4 AM · freezing, low 21°−6° · Partly cloudy
Monday morningUp to 33°1° by 11 AM · freezing, low 19°−7° · Mostly cloudy

Hourly forecast, next 48 hours, in the place's local time
Hour	Conditions	Temperature	Feels like	Precipitation	Wind	Humidity	Cloud cover	UV index
Sat 1p	Sunny	38°3° (likely 36°2° to 38°3°)	38°3°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	97%	16%	3
Sat 2p	Sunny	40°4° (likely 38°3° to 40°4°)	40°4°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	89%	15%	3
Sat 3p	Sunny	41°5° (likely 39°4° to 42°6°)	41°5°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	86%	15%	2
Sat 4p	Sunny	41°5° (likely 39°4° to 43°6°)	41°5°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	86%	12%	1
Sat 5p	Sunny	41°5° (likely 39°4° to 44°7°)	41°5°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	86%	11%	1
Sat 6p	Clear	39°4° (likely 36°2° to 42°6°)	39°4°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	86%	9%	1
Sat 7p	Clear	34°1° (likely 34°1° to 39°4°)	34°1°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	100%	4%	0
Sat 8p	Clear	32°0° (likely 32°0° to 37°3°)	32°0°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph3 km/h	100%	1%	0
Sat 9p	Clear	28°−2° (likely 28°−2° to 36°2°)	28°−2°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph4 km/h	100%	3%	0
Sat 10p	Clear	27°−3° (likely 27°−3° to 35°2°)	27°−3°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	100%	6%	0
Sat 11p	Clear	25°−4° (likely 25°−4° to 35°2°)	25°−4°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	100%	0%	0
Sun 12a	Clear	24°−4° (likely 24°−4° to 35°2°)	24°−4°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	100%	0%	0
Sun 1a	Clear	23°−5° (likely 23°−5° to 34°1°)	23°−5°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph3 km/h	100%	0%	0
Sun 2a	Clear	23°−5° (likely 23°−5° to 34°1°)	23°−5°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 3 mph4 km/h	100%	2%	0
Sun 3a	Clear	22°−6° (likely 22°−6° to 34°1°)	22°−6°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph3 km/h	100%	2%	0
Sun 4a	Clear	22°−6° (likely 22°−6° to 34°1°)	22°−6°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph3 km/h	100%	0%	0
Sun 5a	Clear	21°−6° (likely 21°−6° to 34°1°)	21°−6°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph3 km/h	100%	4%	0
Sun 6a	Clear	20°−7° (likely 20°−7° to 34°1°)	20°−7°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 3 mph4 km/h	100%	8%	0
Sun 7a	Clear	20°−7° (likely 20°−7° to 33°1°)	20°−7°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 3 mph4 km/h	100%	5%	0
Sun 8a	Sunny	18°−8° (likely 18°−8° to 34°1°)	18°−8°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	100%	2%	0
Sun 9a	Sunny	22°−6° (likely 22°−6° to 34°1°)	22°−6°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	100%	19%	0
Sun 10a	Sunny	27°−3° (likely 27°−3° to 37°3°)	27°−3°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	20%	1
Sun 11a	Sunny	31°−1° (likely 31°−1° to 40°4°)	31°−1°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	100%	21%	2
Sun 12p	Sunny	34°1° (likely 34°1° to 42°6°)	34°1°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NNE, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	96%	24%	3
Sun 1p	Sunny	36°2° (likely 36°2° to 44°7°)	36°2°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NNE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	92%	6%	4
Sun 2p	Sunny	39°4° (likely 39°4° to 46°8°)	39°4°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NNE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	85%	6%	4
Sun 3p	Sunny	40°4° (likely 40°4° to 47°8°)	40°4°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NNE, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	81%	11%	3
Sun 4p	Mostly sunny	41°5° (likely 41°5° to 48°9°)	41°5°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	81%	19%	3
Sun 5p	Mostly sunny	42°6° (likely 41°5° to 47°8°)	42°6°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	81%	41%	1
Sun 6p	Mostly clear	40°4° (likely 38°3° to 45°7°)	40°4°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 9 mph15 km/h	82%	20%	0
Sun 7p	Mostly clear	34°1° (likely 34°1° to 42°6°)	34°1°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 10 mph16 km/h	99%	44%	0
Sun 8p	Mostly clear	32°0° (likely 32°0° to 39°4°)	32°0°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	100%	48%	0
Sun 9p	Partly cloudy	28°−2° (likely 28°−2° to 38°3°)	28°−2°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	100%	49%	0
Sun 10p	Partly cloudy	27°−3° (likely 27°−3° to 37°3°)	27°−3°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	100%	59%	0
Sun 11p	Partly cloudy	25°−4° (likely 25°−4° to 37°3°)	25°−4°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	100%	62%	0
Mon 12a	Partly cloudy	24°−4° (likely 24°−4° to 36°2°)	24°−4°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 3 mph4 km/h	100%	60%	0
Mon 1a	Partly cloudy	23°−5° (likely 23°−5° to 36°2°)	23°−5°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph3 km/h	100%	60%	0
Mon 2a	Partly cloudy	23°−5° (likely 23°−5° to 35°2°)	23°−5°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 3 mph4 km/h	100%	59%	0
Mon 3a	Mostly cloudy	22°−6° (likely 22°−6° to 34°1°)	22°−6°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	100%	66%	0
Mon 4a	Cloudy	21°−6° (likely 21°−6° to 34°1°)	21°−6°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph3 km/h	100%	61%	0
Mon 5a	Cloudy	22°−6° (likely 22°−6° to 34°1°)	22°−6°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph3 km/h	100%	60%	0
Mon 6a	Mostly cloudy	19°−7° (likely 19°−7° to 34°1°)	19°−7°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph3 km/h	100%	54%	0
Mon 7a	Mostly cloudy	21°−6° (likely 21°−6° to 35°2°)	21°−6°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph3 km/h	100%	39%	0
Mon 8a	Mostly cloudy	22°−6° (likely 22°−6° to 34°1°)	22°−6°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph3 km/h	100%	63%	0
Mon 9a	Partly sunny	23°−5° (likely 23°−5° to 34°1°)	23°−5°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph3 km/h	100%	74%	0
Mon 10a	Partly sunny	27°−3° (likely 25°−4° to 37°3°)	27°−3°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph3 km/h	98%	82%	1
Mon 11a	Partly sunny	33°1° (likely 29°−2° to 40°4°)	33°1°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph3 km/h	94%	62%	2
Mon 12p	Partly sunny	39°4° (likely 33°1° to 43°6°)	39°4°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 2 mph4 km/h	90%	47%	3

Days ahead

Shaded: typical range for these dates (1991–2020)

Today, Oct 24. Fog. High 41°5°, low 17°−8°. Typical 53°12° / 25°−4°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 41°5°
  Dry
2. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 32°0°
  Dry
3. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 21°−6°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Today: Sunny, with a high near 41. Wind around 0 mph.
Tonight: Areas of fog after midnight. Mostly clear. Low around 17, with temperatures rising to around 21 overnight. Wind around 0 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
40°4°–44°7°
Low, likely
17°−8°–30°−1°
Typical high / low
53°12° / 25°−4°
Wind
5 mph8 km/h
UV peak
4
Tomorrow, Oct 25. Fog. High 42°6°, low 18°−8°. Typical 53°12° / 25°−4°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 18°−8°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 42°6°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Partly cloudy, 32°0°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Mostly cloudy, 21°−6°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Areas of fog before noon. Sunny, with a high near 42. North wind around 1 mph.
Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 18. Wind around 0 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
42°6°–48°9°
Low, likely
18°−8°–33°1°
Typical high / low
53°12° / 25°−4°
Wind
8 mph13 km/h, gusts 16 mph26 km/h
UV peak
4
Monday, Oct 26. Partly sunny. High 48°9°, low 24°−4°. Typical 52°11° / 24°−4°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Partly sunny, 22°−6°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 49°9°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 41°5°
  40% chance · 0.07 in1.7 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 35°2°
  60% chance · 0.12 in3 mm
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 48. Wind around 0 mph.
Night: A chance of rain before midnight, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. South southwest wind around 1 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
46°8°–50°10°
Low, likely
23°−5°–32°0°
Typical high / low
52°11° / 24°−4°
Wind
9 mph15 km/h, gusts 18 mph28 km/h
UV peak
4
Tuesday, Oct 27. Snow. High 47°8°, low 20°−7°. Typical 52°11° / 24°−4°. Snow < 1 in< 2 cm, 60% chance. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Drizzle, 37°3°
  60% chance · 0.03 in0.8 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Partly sunny, 50°10°
  30% chance
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 40°4°
  30% chance
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 30°−1°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Snow likely before 9am, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Southwest wind 3 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 20. Southwest wind around 5 mph.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
47°8°–51°11°
Low, likely
20°−7°–40°4°
Typical high / low
52°11° / 24°−4°
Wind
16 mph26 km/h, gusts 27 mph44 km/h
UV peak
3
Wednesday, Oct 28. Partly sunny. High 47°8°, low 20°−7°. Typical 51°11° / 24°−4°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 29°−2°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 49°10°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 39°4°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 31°−1°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.
Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 20.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
47°8°–52°11°
Low, likely
20°−7°–34°1°
Typical high / low
51°11° / 24°−4°
Wind
14 mph23 km/h, gusts 24 mph39 km/h
UV peak
4
Thursday, Oct 29. Mostly cloudy. High 46°8°, low 21°−6°. Typical 51°11° / 23°−5°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 31°0°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 47°8°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 42°5°
  30% chance · 0.05 in1.3 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 34°1°
  40% chance · 0.2 in0.4 cm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 46.
Night: A chance of rain before 9pm, then a chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
46°8°–49°9°
Low, likely
21°−6°–34°1°
Typical high / low
51°11° / 23°−5°
Wind
5 mph9 km/h, gusts 26 mph42 km/h
UV peak
2
Friday, Oct 30. Snow. High 45°7°, low 20°−7°. Typical 50°10° / 23°−5°. Snow 0–2 in0–5 cm, 30% chance. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 32°0°
  40% chance · 0.2 in0.5 cm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Rain, 38°3°
  40% chance · 0.05 in1.3 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Rain, 34°1°
  30% chance · 0.02 in0.5 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Rain, 29°−2°
  30% chance · 0.1 in2.5 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 45.
Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
37°3°–45°7°
Low, likely
20°−7°–35°2°
Typical high / low
50°10° / 23°−5°
Wind
6 mph10 km/h, gusts 23 mph37 km/h
UV peak
2
Saturday, Oct 31. Rain. High 39°4°, low 24°−4°. Typical 50°10° / 23°−5°. Rain 0.13 in3.3 mm, 30% chance. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Drizzle, 27°−3°
  20% chance · 0.06 in1.6 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 37°3°
  20% chance · 0.06 in1.5 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 30°−1°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 24°−4°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
37°3°–41°5°
Low, likely
13°−11°–28°−2°
Typical high / low
50°10° / 23°−5°
Wind
12 mph19 km/h
UV peak
3
Sunday, Nov 1. Cloudy. High 45°7°, low 25°−4°. Typical 49°9° / 22°−6°. Dry. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Partly sunny, 27°−3°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 45°7°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 36°2°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 34°1°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
37°3°–50°10°
Low, likely
14°−10°–30°−1°
Typical high / low
49°9° / 22°−6°
Wind
11 mph18 km/h, gusts 21 mph33 km/h
UV peak
3
Monday, Nov 2. Cloudy. High 45°7°, low 32°0°. Typical 49°9° / 22°−6°. Dry. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 37°3°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 45°7°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 38°3°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
37°3°–54°12°
Low, likely
30°−1°–35°2°
Typical high / low
49°9° / 22°−6°
Wind
18 mph29 km/h, gusts 39 mph63 km/h
UV peak
2

10 days15 days30 days

The outlook

Today
Dry, high 41°, low 17°.
Tomorrow
Dry, high 42°, low 18°.
Monday
Dry, high 48°, low 24°, warming up.
Rest of week
Highs 39–47°; chance of precipitation on Tuesday.

Want the meteorologists’ reasoning? Read the NWS forecast discussion (TFX) (opens in a new tab)

What changed since yesterday

No meaningful changes from yesterday’s forecast.

Radar

Radar data: NOAA MRMS, rendered by forecast.blue

Radar loads when scrolled into view

Full-screen radar

Rivers

NOAA river gauges within 25 mi

Jefferson River near Three Forks

6.6 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 3.6 ft
Flow: 1,460 cfs

Reading from Sat 11 AM · NWS gauge page

Gallatin River at Logan

11 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 5.2 ft
Flow: 849 cfs

Reading from Sat 11 AM · NWS gauge page

East Gallatin River near Manhattan

17 mi

Level: 3.2 ft

Reading from Sat 11:15 AM · NWS gauge page

Madison River below Ennis Lake near McAllister

22 mi

Level: 4.0 ft
Flow: 1,400 cfs

Reading from Sat 11 AM · NWS gauge page

For your home

What this week’s weather means for heating, cooling, pipes and fresh air.

Pipes: watch the cold

Tonight’s low: 20°−7°

Overnight low near 20°F — not yet at drip-the-faucets cold, but worth watching if it's forecast to drop further.

Heating this week

About 63% less heating than a typical week.

This week 71Typical 190

Heating degree days, base 65°F

Heat-pump hours, next 7 days

h below 47°F: 47
h below 17°F: 0
h below 5°F: 0

47, 17 and 5°F are the test points heat pumps are rated at. About 21 hours are near freezing and damp, when outdoor units defrost more often.

Comfort

Dry air outside (dew point 37°F).

Open the windows?

No stretch in the next few days is comfortable enough outside, by temperature, dew point and air quality.

Is this typical?

Logan Landfill · official normals 1991–2020 · records 2008–2026

Oct 24, today vs a typical year

Today’s expected high is 12°7° colder than typical.

Last 7 days vs normal

On average 8°4° warmer than normal (daily mean temperature).

+5°+3°SunOct 18
+8°+4°MonOct 19
+8°+4°TueOct 20
+9°+5°WedOct 21
+9°+5°ThuOct 22
+14°+8°FriOct 23
+5°+3°SatOct 24

Willow Creek weather by month: normals, records, snow and freeze dates

Sun & moon

Sun

Daylight: 10 h 29 min; Losing 3 min 3 s a day; shortest Dec 21, 1 h 49 min less
Golden hour: 5:43–6:43 PM; Morning 7:36–8:37 AM
Blue hour: 6:43–6:55 PM; Morning 7:25–7:36 AM; first light 7:25 AM

Stars tonight? Fair

Clear 6:55 PM–7:26 AM, but the moon is 99% lit and up.

Moon

Waxing gibbous

97% lit · growing

Today: sets 6:10 AM · rises 5:25 PM
Full moon: Oct 25
New moon: Nov 9

Looking southwest from Willow Creek. The highest point on the skyline is about 10,700 ft, 34 mi away.Skyline from USGS elevation data, heights drawn up to 6× taller. Sky, sun and moon as they are now.

Willow Creek, MT weather

Next 2 hours

Next 48 hours

Days ahead

The outlook

Today

Tomorrow

Monday

Rest of week

What changed since yesterday

Radar

Rivers

Jefferson River near Three Forks

Gallatin River at Logan

East Gallatin River near Manhattan

Madison River below Ennis Lake near McAllister

For your home

Pipes: watch the cold

Heating this week

Heat-pump hours, next 7 days

Comfort

Open the windows?

Is this typical?

Oct 24, today vs a typical year

Last 7 days vs normal

Sun & moon

Sun

Stars tonight? Fair

Moon