Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Ends in 2 h 52 min
When
Until 10:00 PM
Where
Dona Ana, NM; Luna, NM; Otero, NM; Sierra, NM; El Paso, TX; Hudspeth, TX
Issued for this county · National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
Full alert textHide details
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN NEW MEXICO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
DONA ANA OTERO SIERRA
IN SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
LUNA
IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES
IN WESTERN TEXAS
EL PASO HUDSPETH
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALAMOGORDO, CLINT, DEMING, EL PASO, ELEPHANT BUTTE, FORT HANCOCK, GAGE, KINGSTON, LAS CRUCES, MCNARY, SIERRA BLANCA, SOCORRO, AND TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES.
Areas: Dona Ana, NM; Luna, NM; Otero, NM; Sierra, NM; El Paso, TX; Hudspeth, TX
See it on weather.gov (opens in a new tab)

Observed 6:50 PM MDT at KTCS

Elephant Butte, NM weather

Clear and 68°20°.

Forecasts differ

Now 68°20°

Clear

Wind: 6 mph9 km/h; From the southwest. Gusts to 24 mph39 km/h around 8 PM
Dew point: 46°8°; Comfortable
UV tomorrow: 6High; High 1–3 PM · peak 6

Light rain starting around 6:15 AM.

From forecast models

Next 48 hours

3°2° warmer than this time yesterday (69°21° then, 72°22° now)

Good hours for

Rain until 10 PM (30%, 0.21 in5.3 mm)
Low 53°12° tomorrow at 6 AM
Above 60°16° tomorrow by 9 AM
Gusts to 25 mph40 km/h tomorrow 3–4 PM
High 72°22° tomorrow at 3 PM

TonightDown to 54°12° by 4 AM · Rain 7–10 PM (30%)
Tomorrow morningUp to 66°19° by 11 AM · Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow afternoonNear 70°21° · gusts to 25 mph40 km/h · Clear
Tomorrow nightDown to 49°9° by 5 AM · Partly cloudy
Monday morningUp to 64°18° by 11 AM · Cloudy
Monday afternoonUp to 70°21° by 3 PM · Mostly cloudy

Hourly forecast, next 48 hours, in the place's local time
Hour	Conditions	Temperature	Feels like	Precipitation	Wind	Humidity	Cloud cover	UV index
Sat 7p	Cloudy	62°17° (likely 62°17° to 68°20°)	62°17°	30%, 0.07 in1.8 mm	10 mph16 km/h from S, gusts 13 mph21 km/h	70%	46%	0
Sat 8p	Cloudy	60°16° (likely 60°16° to 66°19°)	60°16°	20%, 0.07 in1.8 mm	9 mph14 km/h from S, gusts 24 mph39 km/h	75%	55%	0
Sat 9p	Showers	59°15° (likely 59°15° to 64°18°)	59°15°	20%, 0.07 in1.8 mm	8 mph13 km/h from S, gusts 23 mph37 km/h	78%	55%	0
Sat 10p	Clear	58°14° (likely 58°14° to 63°17°)	58°14°	20%, 0.07 in1.8 mm	8 mph13 km/h from S, gusts 16 mph25 km/h	80%	23%	0
Sat 11p	Showers	58°14° (likely 57°14° to 62°17°)	58°14°	20%, 0.07 in1.8 mm	7 mph11 km/h from S, gusts 13 mph21 km/h	77%	25%	0
Sun 12a	Partly cloudy	57°14° (likely 56°13° to 61°16°)	57°14°	10%	7 mph11 km/h from SSW, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	77%	21%	0
Sun 1a	Partly cloudy	56°13° (likely 55°13° to 60°16°)	56°13°	10%	6 mph10 km/h from SW, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	80%	30%	0
Sun 2a	Partly cloudy	56°13° (likely 55°13° to 59°15°)	56°13°	10%	5 mph8 km/h from WSW, gusts 3 mph6 km/h	80%	19%	0
Sun 3a	Clear	55°13° (likely 54°12° to 57°14°)	55°13°	10%	5 mph8 km/h from W, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	83%	12%	0
Sun 4a	Partly cloudy	54°12° (likely 52°11° to 56°13°)	54°12°	5%	3 mph5 km/h from W, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	86%	33%	0
Sun 5a	Partly cloudy	54°12° (likely 52°11° to 55°13°)	54°12°	5%	3 mph5 km/h from W, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	83%	76%	0
Sun 6a	Partly cloudy	53°12° (likely 53°12° to 57°14°)	53°12°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from W, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	86%	83%	0
Sun 7a	Partly sunny	53°12° (likely 53°12° to 56°13°)	53°12°	5%	2 mph3 km/h from WNW, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	86%	70%	0
Sun 8a	Partly sunny	56°13° (likely 53°12° to 57°14°)	56°13°	5%	2 mph3 km/h from W, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	77%	89%	0
Sun 9a	Partly sunny	60°16° (likely 55°13° to 60°16°)	60°16°	5%	2 mph3 km/h from SW, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	69%	73%	1
Sun 10a	Partly sunny	64°18° (likely 58°14° to 64°18°)	64°18°	5%	2 mph3 km/h from SSW, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	60%	58%	2
Sun 11a	Mostly sunny	66°19° (likely 60°16° to 66°19°)	66°19°	5%	2 mph3 km/h from S, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	56%	53%	2
Sun 12p	Mostly sunny	69°21° (likely 63°17° to 69°21°)	69°21°	5%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 14 mph23 km/h	49%	36%	2
Sun 1p	Mostly sunny	70°21° (likely 64°18° to 70°21°)	70°21°	5%	10 mph16 km/h from S, gusts 19 mph31 km/h	46%	47%	6
Sun 2p	Mostly sunny	71°22° (likely 66°19° to 71°22°)	71°22°	5%	14 mph23 km/h from SSW, gusts 24 mph38 km/h	41%	26%	6
Sun 3p	Sunny	72°22° (likely 67°19° to 72°22°)	72°22°	5%	16 mph26 km/h from SSW, gusts 25 mph41 km/h	39%	11%	5
Sun 4p	Sunny	72°22° (likely 67°19° to 72°22°)	72°22°	0%	16 mph26 km/h from SSW, gusts 25 mph40 km/h	38%	9%	4
Sun 5p	Sunny	70°21° (likely 67°19° to 72°22°)	70°21°	0%	14 mph23 km/h from SSW, gusts 22 mph36 km/h	41%	12%	2
Sun 6p	Clear	65°18° (likely 65°18° to 69°21°)	65°18°	0%	10 mph16 km/h from SSW, gusts 19 mph31 km/h	50%	7%	1
Sun 7p	Mostly clear	60°16° (likely 60°16° to 66°19°)	60°16°	0%	8 mph13 km/h from SSW, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	60%	28%	0
Sun 8p	Cloudy	58°14° (likely 58°14° to 65°18°)	58°14°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from SSW, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	64%	74%	0
Sun 9p	Cloudy	56°13° (likely 56°13° to 63°17°)	56°13°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from W, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	69%	79%	0
Sun 10p	Clear	55°13° (likely 55°13° to 61°16°)	55°13°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from WNW, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	69%	20%	0
Sun 11p	Clear	54°12° (likely 54°12° to 59°15°)	54°12°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NW, gusts 3 mph6 km/h	69%	21%	0
Mon 12a	Clear	53°12° (likely 53°12° to 58°14°)	53°12°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NW, gusts 3 mph4 km/h	69%	21%	0
Mon 1a	Mostly clear	52°11° (likely 51°11° to 57°14°)	52°11°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NW, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	69%	30%	0
Mon 2a	Partly cloudy	51°11° (likely 50°10° to 55°13°)	51°11°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from NW, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	71%	58%	0
Mon 3a	Clear	51°11° (likely 48°9° to 54°12°)	51°11°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from NNW, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	71%	30%	0
Mon 4a	Cloudy	50°10° (likely 47°8° to 53°12°)	47°8°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from NNW, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	74%	69%	0
Mon 5a	Cloudy	49°9° (likely 47°8° to 53°12°)	46°8°	5%	7 mph11 km/h from NNW, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	77%	99%	0
Mon 6a	Cloudy	48°9° (likely 47°8° to 52°11°)	45°7°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from N, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	80%	98%	0
Mon 7a	Cloudy	48°9° (likely 47°8° to 51°11°)	45°7°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from N, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	83%	99%	0
Mon 8a	Cloudy	52°11° (likely 47°8° to 52°11°)	52°11°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from N, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	74%	99%	0
Mon 9a	Cloudy	56°13° (likely 52°11° to 56°13°)	56°13°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from N, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	64%	97%	1
Mon 10a	Cloudy	60°16° (likely 55°13° to 60°16°)	60°16°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from N, gusts 9 mph15 km/h	55%	91%	2
Mon 11a	Cloudy	64°18° (likely 59°15° to 64°18°)	64°18°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from NNE, gusts 10 mph16 km/h	50%	92%	4
Mon 12p	Cloudy	66°19° (likely 62°17° to 66°19°)	66°19°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from NNE, gusts 9 mph15 km/h	47%	91%	5
Mon 1p	Mostly cloudy	68°20° (likely 65°18° to 68°20°)	68°20°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from ENE, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	44%	66%	5
Mon 2p	Partly sunny	69°21° (likely 66°19° to 70°21°)	69°21°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from ESE, gusts 7 mph10 km/h	44%	65%	5
Mon 3p	Partly sunny	70°21° (likely 67°19° to 72°22°)	70°21°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	42%	58%	4
Mon 4p	Partly sunny	70°21° (likely 67°19° to 72°22°)	70°21°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SE, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	44%	53%	3
Mon 5p	Partly sunny	68°20° (likely 66°19° to 71°22°)	68°20°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SSE, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	47%	37%	2
Mon 6p	Clear	64°18° (likely 64°18° to 70°21°)	64°18°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SSE, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	56%	26%	1

Days ahead

Shaded: typical range for these dates (1991–2020)

Today, Oct 24. Cloudy. High 75°24°, low 53°12°. Typical 73°23° / 46°8°. Rain 0.12 in3 mm, 60% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Showers, 60°16°
  30% chance · 0.35 in8.9 mm
2. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 54°12°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Southwest wind 3 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
72°22°–77°25°
Low, likely
53°12°–57°14°
Typical high / low
73°23° / 46°8°
Wind
20 mph31 km/h, gusts 33 mph53 km/h
UV peak
6
Tomorrow, Oct 25. Partly sunny. High 72°22°, low 48°9°. Typical 72°22° / 45°7°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Partly sunny, 56°13°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 72°22°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 58°14°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 49°9°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. West southwest wind 2 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
68°20°–72°22°
Low, likely
48°9°–55°13°
Typical high / low
72°22° / 45°7°
Wind
19 mph31 km/h, gusts 30 mph48 km/h
UV peak
6
Monday, Oct 26. Cloudy. High 70°21°, low 50°10°. Typical 72°22° / 45°7°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 52°11°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Partly sunny, 70°21°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 62°16°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 51°11°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Northeast wind 2 to 7 mph.
Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. West southwest wind around 2 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
67°19°–71°22°
Low, likely
45°7°–52°11°
Typical high / low
72°22° / 45°7°
Wind
10 mph16 km/h
UV peak
5
Tuesday, Oct 27. Mostly sunny. High 75°24°, low 49°9°. Typical 72°22° / 44°7°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Partly sunny, 52°11°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 74°23°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 64°18°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 49°10°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 75. West southwest wind 1 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Night: Clear, with a low around 49. Southwest wind 1 to 9 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
71°22°–75°24°
Low, likely
47°8°–55°13°
Typical high / low
72°22° / 44°7°
Wind
13 mph20 km/h, gusts 20 mph33 km/h
UV peak
6
Wednesday, Oct 28. Cloudy. High 75°24°, low 51°11°. Typical 71°22° / 44°7°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 50°10°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 74°24°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 65°18°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 52°11°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 75. Southwest wind 0 to 9 mph.
Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. West wind 1 to 7 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
73°23°–76°24°
Low, likely
44°7°–55°13°
Typical high / low
71°22° / 44°7°
Wind
13 mph21 km/h, gusts 25 mph41 km/h
UV peak
5
Thursday, Oct 29. Thunderstorms. High 73°23°, low 52°11°. Typical 71°22° / 44°7°. Storms 0.06 in1.5 mm, 30% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 53°12°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 72°22°
  30% chance · 0.02 in0.4 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Mostly clear, 63°17°
  30% chance · 0.02 in0.5 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 52°11°
  30% chance
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: A slight chance of rain showers before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
68°20°–74°23°
Low, likely
48°9°–58°14°
Typical high / low
71°22° / 44°7°
Wind
12 mph19 km/h, gusts 21 mph34 km/h
UV peak
3
Friday, Oct 30. Showers. High 69°21°, low 51°11°. Typical 70°21° / 43°6°. Rain 0.16 in4.1 mm, 40% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 54°12°
  20% chance · 0.01 in0.4 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 66°19°
  30% chance · 0.04 in1.1 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 60°16°
  40% chance · 0.08 in2 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 52°11°
  40% chance · 0.03 in0.7 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: A chance of rain showers before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
62°17°–69°21°
Low, likely
48°9°–56°13°
Typical high / low
70°21° / 43°6°
Wind
21 mph33 km/h
UV peak
3
Saturday, Oct 31. Mostly cloudy. High 68°20°, low 54°12°. Typical 70°21° / 43°6°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Mostly sunny, 53°12°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 67°19°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 61°16°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 54°12°
  20% chance · 0.05 in1.3 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 68.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
64°18°–68°20°
Low, likely
50°10°–57°14°
Typical high / low
70°21° / 43°6°
Wind
16 mph26 km/h, gusts 27 mph43 km/h
UV peak
4
Sunday, Nov 1. Cloudy. High 66°19°, low 53°12°. Typical 70°21° / 42°6°. Rain 0.19 in4.8 mm, 30% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 54°12°
  30% chance · 0.03 in0.8 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 67°19°
  30% chance · 0.03 in0.7 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 60°16°
  30% chance · 0.01 in0.3 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 47°8°
  30% chance
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
63°17°–72°22°
Low, likely
42°6°–61°16°
Typical high / low
70°21° / 42°6°
Wind
19 mph30 km/h, gusts 36 mph58 km/h
UV peak
3
Monday, Nov 2. Partly sunny. High 65°18°, low 48°9°. Typical 69°21° / 42°6°. Rain 0.02 in0.5 mm, 30% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 52°11°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 67°19°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 55°13°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
57°14°–78°26°
Low, likely
31°−1°–58°14°
Typical high / low
69°21° / 42°6°
Wind
26 mph42 km/h, gusts 35 mph57 km/h
UV peak
6

10 days15 days30 days

The outlook

Today
Dry, high 75°, low 53°.
Tomorrow
Dry, high 72°, low 48°, cooling off.
Monday
Dry, high 70°, low 50°.
Rest of week
Highs 65–75°; chance of precipitation on Friday.

Want the meteorologists’ reasoning? Read the NWS forecast discussion (EPZ) (opens in a new tab)

What changed since yesterday

No meaningful changes from yesterday’s forecast.

Radar

Radar data: NOAA MRMS, rendered by forecast.blue

Radar loads when scrolled into view

Full-screen radar

Rivers

NOAA river gauges within 25 mi

Rio Grande below Elephant Butte Dam

2.5 mi

Level: 1.4 ft
Flow: 2 cfs

Reading from Sat 5 PM · NWS gauge page

Rio Grande at Elephant Butte Lake

2.6 mi

Level: 4297 ft

Reading from Sat 6 PM · NWS gauge page

Rio Grande at The Narrows in Elephant Butte Lake

14 mi

Level: 5.8 ft
Flow: 241 cfs

Reading from Sat 5:15 PM · NWS gauge page

Rio Grande at Caballo Lake

20 mi

Level: 4139 ft

Reading from Sat 6 PM · NWS gauge page

For your home

What this week’s weather means for heating, cooling, pipes and fresh air.

Heating this week

About 73% less heating than a typical week.

This week 13Typical 49

Heating degree days, base 65°F

Comfort

Dry air outside (dew point 46°F).

Open the windows?

Sun, 9:00 AM–7:00 PM

Good stretch to open the windows (air quality forecast not available for part of this window).

Is this typical?

Truth Or Consequences Municipal Airport · official normals 1991–2020 · records 1950–2026

Oct 24, today vs a typical year

Today’s expected high is 2°1° warmer than typical.

Last 7 days vs normal

On average 5°3° warmer than normal (daily mean temperature).

±0°MonOct 19
+2°+1°TueOct 20
+7°+4°WedOct 21
+10°+5°ThuOct 22
+8°+4°FriOct 23
—SatOct 24
—SunOct 25

Elephant Butte weather by month: normals, records, snow and freeze dates

Sun & moon

Sun

Daylight: 11 h 5 min; Losing 1 min 48 s a day; shortest Dec 21, 1 h 7 min less
Golden hour: 5:51–6:40 PM; Morning 7:05–7:54 AM
Blue hour: 6:40–6:50 PM; Morning 6:55–7:05 AM; first light 6:55 AM

Stars tonight? Fair

Mostly clear 2–4 AM, but the moon is 99% lit and up.

Moon

Waxing gibbous

98% lit · growing

Today: sets 5:41 AM · rises 5:22 PM
Full moon: Oct 25
New moon: Nov 9

Looking northwest from Elephant Butte. The highest point on the skyline is about 10,600 ft, 55 mi away.Skyline from USGS elevation data, heights drawn up to 6× taller. Sky, sun and moon as they are now.

1 active weather alert

Severe Thunderstorm Watch