Observed 2:30 PM EDT at KROC

Pavilion, NY weather

Sunny and 63°17°, jacket by 7 PM.

Mostly agree

Now 63°17°

Sunny

Wind: 3 mph5 km/h; From the south. 35–6 mph10 km/h through 2 AM
Dew point: 36°2°; Comfortable
UV tomorrow: 4Moderate; Moderate 12–4 PM · peak 4
Pressure: 30.5 inHg1033 hPa; Falling · −0.05 inHg−1.8 hPa in 3 h

No precipitation expected in the next 2 hours.

From forecast models

Next 48 hours

6°3° warmer than this time yesterday (55°13° then, 61°16° now)

Good hours for

High 62°17° today at 3 PM
Below 50°10° tonight after 9 PM
Low 38°3° tomorrow at 6 AM
Above 50°10° tomorrow by 10 AM

This afternoonNear 61°16° · Clear
TonightDown to 39°4° by 5 AM · Clear
Tomorrow morningUp to 55°13° by 11 AM · Clear
Tomorrow afternoonUp to 64°18° by 2 PM · Partly cloudy
Tomorrow nightDown to 47°8° by 9 PM · Mostly cloudy
Monday morningUp to 60°16° by 11 AM · Partly cloudy

Hourly forecast, next 48 hours, in the place's local time
Hour	Conditions	Temperature	Feels like	Precipitation	Wind	Humidity	Cloud cover	UV index
Sat 2p	Sunny	61°16° (likely 59°15° to 62°17°)	61°16°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from N, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	39%	0%	2
Sat 3p	Sunny	62°17° (likely 60°16° to 62°17°)	62°17°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NE, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	38%	0%	2
Sat 4p	Sunny	62°17° (likely 60°16° to 62°17°)	62°17°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	39%	0%	1
Sat 5p	Sunny	61°16° (likely 58°14° to 61°16°)	61°16°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	40%	0%	0
Sat 6p	Clear	58°14° (likely 53°12° to 58°14°)	58°14°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from E, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	45%	0%	0
Sat 7p	Clear	54°12° (likely 49°9° to 54°12°)	54°12°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from E, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	52%	0%	0
Sat 8p	Clear	50°10° (likely 46°8° to 50°10°)	49°9°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SE, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	57%	0%	0
Sat 9p	Clear	44°7° (likely 44°7° to 49°9°)	43°6°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from S, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	70%	0%	0
Sat 10p	Clear	43°6° (likely 43°6° to 47°8°)	42°6°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from S, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	72%	0%	0
Sat 11p	Clear	42°6° (likely 40°4° to 45°7°)	39°4°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	76%	0%	0
Sun 12a	Clear	41°5° (likely 39°4° to 43°6°)	38°3°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from S, gusts 11 mph17 km/h	77%	0%	0
Sun 1a	Clear	41°5° (likely 40°4° to 44°7°)	37°3°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from S, gusts 12 mph19 km/h	76%	0%	0
Sun 2a	Clear	41°5° (likely 41°5° to 43°6°)	37°3°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from SW, gusts 12 mph19 km/h	75%	0%	0
Sun 3a	Clear	40°4° (likely 40°4° to 43°6°)	36°2°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from SW, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	76%	0%	0
Sun 4a	Clear	40°4° (likely 40°4° to 42°6°)	37°3°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	77%	0%	0
Sun 5a	Clear	39°4° (likely 39°4° to 41°5°)	36°2°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	78%	0%	0
Sun 6a	Clear	38°3° (likely 38°3° to 41°5°)	35°2°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	78%	0%	0
Sun 7a	Clear	38°3° (likely 38°3° to 41°5°)	34°1°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from SW, gusts 11 mph17 km/h	77%	0%	0
Sun 8a	Sunny	38°3° (likely 37°3° to 40°4°)	34°1°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from SW, gusts 12 mph19 km/h	78%	0%	0
Sun 9a	Sunny	42°6° (likely 42°6° to 45°7°)	39°4°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from SW, gusts 11 mph17 km/h	72%	0%	0
Sun 10a	Sunny	50°10° (likely 49°9° to 51°11°)	48°9°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from SW, gusts 12 mph20 km/h	60%	0%	1
Sun 11a	Sunny	55°13° (likely 54°12° to 56°13°)	55°13°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from SW, gusts 12 mph19 km/h	55%	0%	2
Sun 12p	Sunny	60°16° (likely 57°14° to 60°16°)	60°16°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from SW, gusts 10 mph16 km/h	46%	0%	3
Sun 1p	Sunny	62°17° (likely 59°15° to 63°17°)	62°17°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from SW, gusts 10 mph16 km/h	41%	0%	4
Sun 2p	Sunny	64°18° (likely 61°16° to 65°18°)	64°18°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from SW, gusts 9 mph15 km/h	37%	25%	4
Sun 3p	Sunny	64°18° (likely 61°16° to 65°18°)	64°18°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from SW, gusts 8 mph14 km/h	38%	41%	3
Sun 4p	Sunny	64°18° (likely 61°16° to 65°18°)	64°18°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from SW, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	40%	42%	2
Sun 5p	Sunny	63°17° (likely 59°15° to 64°18°)	63°17°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from SW, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	44%	43%	1
Sun 6p	Mostly clear	59°15° (likely 55°13° to 59°15°)	59°15°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	49%	51%	0
Sun 7p	Partly cloudy	53°12° (likely 51°11° to 54°12°)	53°12°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	61%	68%	0
Sun 8p	Cloudy	48°9° (likely 47°8° to 51°11°)	47°8°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SW, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	73%	73%	0
Sun 9p	Partly cloudy	47°8° (likely 46°8° to 50°10°)	46°8°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SW, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	77%	56%	0
Sun 10p	Cloudy	47°8° (likely 45°7° to 50°10°)	46°8°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SW, gusts 8 mph14 km/h	80%	76%	0
Sun 11p	Partly cloudy	47°8° (likely 45°7° to 51°11°)	45°7°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 9 mph15 km/h	83%	75%	0
Mon 12a	Mostly cloudy	47°8° (likely 46°8° to 50°10°)	45°7°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 10 mph16 km/h	83%	69%	0
Mon 1a	Cloudy	48°9° (likely 48°9° to 49°9°)	46°8°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SW, gusts 11 mph17 km/h	83%	53%	0
Mon 2a	Partly cloudy	48°9° (likely 48°9° to 50°10°)	46°8°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from SW, gusts 11 mph17 km/h	83%	68%	0
Mon 3a	Partly cloudy	48°9° (likely 48°9° to 51°11°)	46°8°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from SW, gusts 12 mph19 km/h	84%	61%	0
Mon 4a	Mostly clear	48°9° (likely 48°9° to 51°11°)	46°8°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from SW, gusts 13 mph21 km/h	85%	68%	0
Mon 5a	Cloudy	47°8° (likely 47°8° to 51°11°)	44°7°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from SW, gusts 13 mph21 km/h	88%	72%	0
Mon 6a	Partly cloudy	48°9° (likely 48°9° to 51°11°)	45°7°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from SW, gusts 13 mph22 km/h	87%	50%	0
Mon 7a	Mostly clear	48°9° (likely 48°9° to 52°11°)	45°7°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from SW, gusts 16 mph25 km/h	89%	34%	0
Mon 8a	Partly sunny	48°9° (likely 48°9° to 53°12°)	45°7°	0%	7 mph11 km/h from SW, gusts 17 mph27 km/h	91%	56%	0
Mon 9a	Mostly sunny	52°11° (likely 52°11° to 56°13°)	52°11°	0%	8 mph13 km/h from W, gusts 19 mph31 km/h	88%	39%	0
Mon 10a	Mostly sunny	57°14° (likely 57°14° to 59°15°)	57°14°	0%	9 mph14 km/h from W, gusts 22 mph35 km/h	83%	50%	1
Mon 11a	Mostly sunny	60°16° (likely 60°16° to 61°16°)	60°16°	0%	10 mph16 km/h from W, gusts 22 mph36 km/h	77%	54%	2
Mon 12p	Partly sunny	63°17° (likely 59°15° to 63°17°)	63°17°	0%	12 mph19 km/h from W, gusts 23 mph37 km/h	72%	39%	3
Mon 1p	Partly sunny	64°18° (likely 58°14° to 64°18°)	64°18°	0%	12 mph19 km/h from W, gusts 21 mph33 km/h	69%	56%	4

Days ahead

Shaded: typical range for these dates (1991–2020)

Today, Oct 24. Sunny. High 62°17°, low 37°3°. Typical 57°14° / 38°3°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 62°17°
  Dry
2. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 50°10°
  Dry
3. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 39°4°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Today: Sunny, with a high near 62. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Tonight: Clear, with a low around 37. Southeast wind around 6 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
60°16°–62°17°
Low, likely
33°1°–37°3°
Typical high / low
57°14° / 38°3°
Wind
8 mph12 km/h, gusts 13 mph21 km/h
UV peak
4
Tomorrow, Oct 25. Cloudy. High 64°18°, low 47°8°. Typical 57°14° / 38°3°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 38°3°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 64°18°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Partly cloudy, 48°9°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Partly cloudy, 47°8°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 64. Southwest wind around 7 mph.
Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. Southwest wind 3 to 7 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
61°16°–65°18°
Low, likely
37°3°–47°8°
Typical high / low
57°14° / 38°3°
Wind
8 mph13 km/h, gusts 17 mph27 km/h
UV peak
4
Monday, Oct 26. Cloudy. High 65°18°, low 36°2°. Typical 56°13° / 38°3°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Mostly sunny, 48°9°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 64°18°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Partly cloudy, 50°10°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Mostly clear, 41°5°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. West wind 7 to 12 mph.
Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. North wind 3 to 8 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
61°16°–65°18°
Low, likely
36°2°–48°9°
Typical high / low
56°13° / 38°3°
Wind
14 mph22 km/h, gusts 27 mph43 km/h
UV peak
4
Tuesday, Oct 27. Cloudy. High 52°11°, low 33°1°. Typical 56°13° / 37°3°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Mostly sunny, 38°3°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 49°10°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 39°4°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 34°1°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. Northeast wind 2 to 7 mph.
Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. East wind 2 to 6 mph.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
48°9°–52°11°
Low, likely
33°1°–37°3°
Typical high / low
56°13° / 37°3°
Wind
10 mph17 km/h, gusts 17 mph27 km/h
UV peak
4
Wednesday, Oct 28. Cloudy. High 64°18°, low 49°9°. Typical 56°13° / 37°3°. Dry. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 37°3°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 62°16°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 52°11°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 51°10°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 64.
Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
57°14°–67°19°
Low, likely
33°1°–49°9°
Typical high / low
56°13° / 37°3°
Wind
10 mph16 km/h, gusts 21 mph34 km/h
UV peak
3
Thursday, Oct 29. Mostly sunny. High 69°21°, low 50°10°. Typical 55°13° / 37°3°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 52°11°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Mostly sunny, 69°21°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 59°15°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 56°13°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: A slight chance of rain showers after 2pm. Sunny, with a high near 69.
Night: A slight chance of rain showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
68°20°–71°22°
Low, likely
46°8°–53°12°
Typical high / low
55°13° / 37°3°
Wind
15 mph24 km/h, gusts 38 mph61 km/h
UV peak
3
Friday, Oct 30. Cloudy. High 66°19°, low 47°8°. Typical 55°13° / 36°2°. Dry. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Partly sunny, 55°13°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 65°18°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 52°11°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Partly cloudy, 48°9°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.
Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
63°17°–69°21°
Low, likely
46°8°–53°12°
Typical high / low
55°13° / 36°2°
Wind
14 mph22 km/h, gusts 34 mph55 km/h
UV peak
3
Saturday, Oct 31. Cloudy. High 68°20°, low 47°8°. Typical 54°12° / 36°2°. Dry. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 49°9°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 67°19°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Partly cloudy, 57°14°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 56°13°
  20% chance
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
63°17°–72°22°
Low, likely
43°6°–51°11°
Typical high / low
54°12° / 36°2°
Wind
9 mph14 km/h, gusts 19 mph30 km/h
UV peak
2
Sunday, Nov 1. Drizzle. High 65°18°, low 56°13°. Typical 54°12° / 36°2°. Rain 0.06 in1.5 mm, 50% chance. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 56°13°
  30% chance
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 65°18°
  40% chance · 0.02 in0.6 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 59°15°
  40% chance · 0.03 in0.7 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 59°15°
  40% chance · 0.09 in2.4 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
61°16°–68°20°
Low, likely
50°10°–61°16°
Typical high / low
54°12° / 36°2°
Wind
17 mph28 km/h, gusts 34 mph55 km/h
UV peak
2
Monday, Nov 2. Rain. High 63°17°, low 53°12°. Typical 54°12° / 36°2°. Rain 0.69 in18 mm, 40% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Rain, 59°15°
  30% chance · 0.27 in6.8 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Rain, 62°17°
  30% chance · 0.27 in6.9 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Rain, 57°14°
  30% chance · 0.18 in4.6 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
58°14°–69°21°
Low, likely
51°11°–56°13°
Typical high / low
54°12° / 36°2°
Wind
19 mph30 km/h, gusts 34 mph55 km/h

10 days15 days30 days

The outlook

Today
Dry, high 62°, low 37°.
Tomorrow
Dry, high 64°, low 47°.
Monday
Dry, high 65°, low 36°.
Rest of week
Highs 52–69°; chance of precipitation on Sunday.

Want the meteorologists’ reasoning? Read the NWS forecast discussion (BUF) (opens in a new tab)

What changed since yesterday

No meaningful changes from yesterday’s forecast.

Radar

Radar data: NOAA MRMS, rendered by forecast.blue

Radar loads when scrolled into view

Full-screen radar

Rivers

NOAA river gauges within 25 mi

Tonawanda Creek at Batavia

12 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 1.5 ft
Flow: 17 cfs

Forecast peak 1.5 ft Sat 8 PM

Reading from Sat 1 PM · NWS gauge page

Genesee River at Mount Morris Dam

12 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 590 ft

Forecast peak 590 ft Sat 8 PM

Reading from Sat 1 PM · NWS gauge page

Tonawanda Creek at Attica

13 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 3.3 ft
Flow: 12 cfs

Forecast peak 3.3 ft Sat 8 PM

Reading from Sat 1 PM · NWS gauge page

Genesee River at Avon - NEW USGS gage on the old railroad bridge

14 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 16.0 ft
Flow: 674 cfs

Forecast peak 16.0 ft Sat 8 PM

Reading from Sat 1:15 PM · NWS gauge page

For your home

What this week’s weather means for heating, cooling, pipes and fresh air.

Heating this week

About 78% less heating than a typical week.

This week 28Typical 129

Heating degree days, base 65°F

Heat-pump hours, next 7 days

h below 47°F: 18
h below 17°F: 0
h below 5°F: 0

47, 17 and 5°F are the test points heat pumps are rated at.

Comfort

Dry air outside (dew point 36°F).

Open the windows?

Today, 3:00 PM–5:00 PM

Good stretch to open the windows (air quality forecast not available for part of this window).

Is this typical?

Mount Morris 2w · official normals 1991–2020 · records 1893–2026

Oct 24, today vs a typical year

Today’s expected high is 5°3° warmer than typical.

Last 7 days vs normal

On average 2°1° colder than normal (daily mean temperature).

−9°−5°SunOct 18
±0°MonOct 19
+4°+2°TueOct 20
−1°WedOct 21
−2°−1°ThuOct 22
±0°FriOct 23
−2°−1°SatOct 24

Pavilion weather by month: normals, records, snow and freeze dates

Sun & moon

Sun

Daylight: 10 h 39 min; Losing 2 min 44 s a day; shortest Dec 21, 1 h 38 min less
Golden hour: 5:35–6:33 PM; Morning 7:18–8:15 AM
Blue hour: 6:33–6:44 PM; Morning 7:07–7:18 AM; first light 7:07 AM

Stars tonight? Fair

Clear 6:44 PM–7:08 AM, but the moon is 99% lit and up.

Moon

Waxing gibbous

97% lit · growing

Today: sets 5:46 AM · rises 5:13 PM
Full moon: Oct 26
New moon: Nov 9

Looking southwest from Pavilion. The highest point on the skyline is about 2,100 ft, 18 mi away.Skyline from USGS elevation data, heights drawn up to 6× taller. Sky, sun and moon as they are now.

Pavilion, NY weather

Next 2 hours

Next 48 hours

Days ahead

The outlook

Today

Tomorrow

Monday

Rest of week

What changed since yesterday

Radar

Rivers

Tonawanda Creek at Batavia

Genesee River at Mount Morris Dam

Tonawanda Creek at Attica

Genesee River at Avon - NEW USGS gage on the old railroad bridge

For your home

Heating this week

Heat-pump hours, next 7 days

Comfort

Open the windows?

Is this typical?

Oct 24, today vs a typical year

Last 7 days vs normal

Sun & moon

Sun

Stars tonight? Fair

Moon