Frost Advisory
Starts in 8 h 4 min
When
From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday.
Where
Portions of central, northeast, and northern Maryland and northern Virginia.
Issued for this forecast zone · National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
What, impacts and precautionsHide details
What
Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation.
Impacts
Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Precautionary actions
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Areas: Frederick; Carroll; Northern Baltimore; Cecil; Northwest Montgomery; Northwest Howard; Northwest Harford; Southeast Harford; Rappahannock; Culpeper; Northern Fauquier; Southern Fauquier; Western Loudoun; Eastern Loudoun; Northwest Prince William; Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park
See it on weather.gov (opens in a new tab)

Observed 3:56 PM EDT at KNYG

Dumfries, VA weather

Partly cloudy and 64°18°, jacket by 8 PM.

Forecasts agree

Now 64°18°

Partly sunny

Wind: Calm; Up to 5 mph8 km/h through 4 AM
Dew point: 42°6°; Comfortable
UV tomorrow: 4Moderate; Moderate 11 AM–5 PM · peak 4
Air quality: 33Good; Ozone · tomorrow moderate
Pressure: 30.51 inHg1033 hPa; Falling slowly · −0.03 inHg−0.9 hPa in 3 h

No precipitation expected in the next 2 hours.

From forecast models

Next 48 hours

Good hours for

Low 43°6° tomorrow at 7 AM
Above 50°10° tomorrow by 10 AM

This afternoonNear 64°18° · Partly cloudy
TonightDown to 44°7° by 3 AM · Partly cloudy
Tomorrow morningUp to 58°14° by 11 AM · Partly cloudy
Tomorrow afternoonUp to 66°19° by 3 PM · Clear
Tomorrow nightDown to 43°6° by 3 AM · Clear
Monday morningUp to 61°16° by 11 AM · Clear
Monday afternoonUp to 71°22° by 3 PM · Clear

Hourly forecast, next 48 hours, in the place's local time
Hour	Conditions	Temperature	Feels like	Precipitation	Wind	Humidity	Cloud cover	UV index
Sat 4p	Partly sunny	65°18° (likely 62°17° to 65°18°)	65°18°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	45%	33%	3
Sat 5p	Mostly sunny	63°17° (likely 60°16° to 64°18°)	63°17°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from E, gusts 7 mph12 km/h	48%	34%	2
Sat 6p	Partly cloudy	61°16° (likely 57°14° to 61°16°)	61°16°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from E, gusts 9 mph15 km/h	51%	20%	0
Sat 7p	Partly cloudy	57°14° (likely 54°12° to 57°14°)	57°14°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from E, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	62%	18%	0
Sat 8p	Mostly clear	53°12° (likely 52°11° to 54°12°)	53°12°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	77%	16%	0
Sat 9p	Clear	51°11° (likely 50°10° to 53°12°)	51°11°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from E, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	83%	17%	0
Sat 10p	Partly cloudy	50°10° (likely 49°9° to 52°11°)	49°9°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	86%	28%	0
Sat 11p	Mostly cloudy	49°9° (likely 48°9° to 51°11°)	48°9°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	89%	52%	0
Sun 12a	Partly cloudy	48°9° (likely 47°8° to 50°10°)	48°9°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from NE, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	93%	28%	0
Sun 1a	Partly cloudy	47°8° (likely 47°8° to 49°9°)	47°8°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from N, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	96%	23%	0
Sun 2a	Partly cloudy	45°7° (likely 45°7° to 48°9°)	45°7°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from N, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	96%	24%	0
Sun 3a	Mostly clear	44°7° (likely 44°7° to 48°9°)	44°7°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from N, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	96%	19%	0
Sun 4a	Mostly clear	44°7° (likely 44°7° to 47°8°)	44°7°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from N, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	96%	26%	0
Sun 5a	Clear	44°7° (likely 43°6° to 48°9°)	44°7°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from N, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	96%	43%	0
Sun 6a	Mostly cloudy	44°7° (likely 42°6° to 49°9°)	44°7°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from N, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	96%	50%	0
Sun 7a	Mostly sunny	43°6° (likely 41°5° to 49°9°)	43°6°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from N, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	96%	60%	0
Sun 8a	Cloudy	44°7° (likely 41°5° to 50°10°)	42°6°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from N, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	96%	62%	0
Sun 9a	Mostly sunny	47°8° (likely 47°8° to 52°11°)	46°8°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from N, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	89%	47%	1
Sun 10a	Mostly sunny	53°12° (likely 53°12° to 56°13°)	53°12°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	77%	16%	2
Sun 11a	Sunny	58°14° (likely 58°14° to 60°16°)	58°14°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph12 km/h	69%	26%	3
Sun 12p	Mostly sunny	61°16° (likely 61°16° to 63°17°)	61°16°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 7 mph12 km/h	60%	16%	4
Sun 1p	Mostly sunny	64°18° (likely 63°17° to 65°18°)	64°18°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	54%	12%	4
Sun 2p	Sunny	65°18° (likely 64°18° to 67°19°)	65°18°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	50%	5%	4
Sun 3p	Sunny	66°19° (likely 65°18° to 67°19°)	66°19°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	48%	7%	4
Sun 4p	Sunny	66°19° (likely 65°18° to 67°19°)	66°19°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	48%	4%	3
Sun 5p	Sunny	65°18° (likely 63°17° to 66°19°)	65°18°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from SE, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	50%	1%	2
Sun 6p	Clear	62°17° (likely 60°16° to 63°17°)	62°17°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	56%	0%	0
Sun 7p	Clear	58°14° (likely 56°13° to 59°15°)	58°14°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	64%	0%	0
Sun 8p	Clear	53°12° (likely 52°11° to 56°13°)	53°12°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	77%	0%	0
Sun 9p	Clear	50°10° (likely 50°10° to 54°12°)	50°10°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	86%	2%	0
Sun 10p	Clear	49°9° (likely 49°9° to 53°12°)	49°9°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from S, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	89%	5%	0
Sun 11p	Clear	48°9° (likely 48°9° to 52°11°)	48°9°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from S, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	93%	7%	0
Mon 12a	Clear	46°8° (likely 46°8° to 51°11°)	46°8°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from SW, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	96%	3%	0
Mon 1a	Clear	45°7° (likely 45°7° to 50°10°)	45°7°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from S, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	96%	2%	0
Mon 2a	Clear	44°7° (likely 44°7° to 48°9°)	44°7°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from W, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	96%	10%	0
Mon 3a	Clear	43°6° (likely 42°6° to 47°8°)	43°6°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from W, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	96%	12%	0
Mon 4a	Clear	43°6° (likely 41°5° to 46°8°)	43°6°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from W, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	96%	11%	0
Mon 5a	Clear	43°6° (likely 40°4° to 45°7°)	43°6°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from W, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	96%	11%	0
Mon 6a	Clear	43°6° (likely 40°4° to 44°7°)	43°6°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from W, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	93%	12%	0
Mon 7a	Sunny	41°5° (likely 39°4° to 44°7°)	41°5°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from W, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	96%	15%	0
Mon 8a	Sunny	42°6° (likely 38°3° to 44°7°)	42°6°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from W, gusts 7 mph12 km/h	96%	21%	0
Mon 9a	Sunny	46°8° (likely 42°6° to 49°9°)	46°8°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	89%	19%	1
Mon 10a	Sunny	53°12° (likely 50°10° to 57°14°)	53°12°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	74%	16%	2
Mon 11a	Sunny	61°16° (likely 56°13° to 62°17°)	61°16°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from W, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	60%	9%	3
Mon 12p	Sunny	65°18° (likely 62°17° to 65°18°)	65°18°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from W, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	52%	0%	4
Mon 1p	Sunny	68°20° (likely 66°19° to 68°20°)	68°20°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NW, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	47%	0%	4
Mon 2p	Sunny	70°21° (likely 68°20° to 70°21°)	70°21°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NW, gusts 9 mph15 km/h	45%	0%	4
Mon 3p	Sunny	71°22° (likely 69°21° to 71°22°)	71°22°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NW, gusts 11 mph17 km/h	44%	0%	4

Days ahead

Shaded: typical range for these dates (1991–2020)

Today, Oct 24. Partly sunny. High 65°18°, low 42°6°. Typical 66°19° / 46°8°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Mostly sunny, 65°18°
  Dry
2. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 53°12°
  Dry
3. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Mostly clear, 44°7°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. East wind around 5 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
62°17°–65°18°
Low, likely
37°3°–42°6°
Typical high / low
66°19° / 46°8°
Wind
6 mph9 km/h, gusts 15 mph24 km/h
UV peak
4
Tomorrow, Oct 25. Cloudy. High 67°19°, low 40°4°. Typical 66°19° / 46°8°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Mostly sunny, 44°7°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 66°19°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 53°12°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 43°6°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 67. Northeast wind around 3 mph.
Night: Clear, with a low around 40. Southwest wind around 2 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
65°18°–67°19°
Low, likely
40°4°–47°8°
Typical high / low
66°19° / 46°8°
Wind
5 mph8 km/h, gusts 10 mph17 km/h
UV peak
4
Monday, Oct 26. Mostly sunny. High 72°22°, low 48°9°. Typical 65°18° / 46°8°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 42°6°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 71°22°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 55°13°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 49°10°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 72. West wind 1 to 5 mph.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
69°21°–72°22°
Low, likely
38°3°–48°9°
Typical high / low
65°18° / 46°8°
Wind
6 mph9 km/h, gusts 13 mph21 km/h
UV peak
4
Tuesday, Oct 27. Mostly sunny. High 70°21°, low 47°8°. Typical 65°18° / 45°7°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 50°10°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 68°20°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 56°13°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 48°9°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 70.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
66°19°–70°21°
Low, likely
47°8°–51°11°
Typical high / low
65°18° / 45°7°
Wind
8 mph12 km/h, gusts 19 mph30 km/h
UV peak
4
Wednesday, Oct 28. Cloudy. High 67°19°, low 48°9°. Typical 64°18° / 45°7°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 47°8°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 65°19°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 56°13°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 49°10°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 67.
Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
64°18°–67°19°
Low, likely
43°6°–51°11°
Typical high / low
64°18° / 45°7°
Wind
6 mph9 km/h, gusts 15 mph25 km/h
UV peak
4
Thursday, Oct 29. Cloudy. High 72°22°, low 50°10°. Typical 64°18° / 45°7°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Partly sunny, 48°9°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Partly sunny, 69°21°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 57°14°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 49°10°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
68°20°–72°22°
Low, likely
46°8°–51°11°
Typical high / low
64°18° / 45°7°
Wind
5 mph9 km/h, gusts 20 mph33 km/h
UV peak
4
Friday, Oct 30. Mostly sunny. High 76°24°, low 51°11°. Typical 64°18° / 44°7°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 49°9°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 75°24°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 61°16°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 51°10°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 76.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
74°23°–76°24°
Low, likely
47°8°–51°11°
Typical high / low
64°18° / 44°7°
Wind
6 mph10 km/h, gusts 25 mph40 km/h
UV peak
4
Saturday, Oct 31. Cloudy. High 72°22°, low 51°11°. Typical 63°17° / 44°7°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Partly sunny, 50°10°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 73°23°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 61°16°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 54°12°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
70°21°–75°24°
Low, likely
49°9°–54°12°
Typical high / low
63°17° / 44°7°
Wind
7 mph10 km/h, gusts 23 mph37 km/h
UV peak
4
Sunday, Nov 1. Cloudy. High 70°21°, low 54°12°. Typical 63°17° / 44°7°. Rain 0.02 in0.5 mm, 30% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 56°13°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Partly sunny, 70°21°
  30% chance
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 65°18°
  30% chance
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 64°18°
  30% chance · 0.04 in0.9 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
63°17°–75°24°
Low, likely
52°11°–58°14°
Typical high / low
63°17° / 44°7°
Wind
9 mph14 km/h, gusts 18 mph29 km/h
UV peak
1
Monday, Nov 2. Drizzle. High 73°23°, low 61°16°. Typical 63°17° / 43°6°. Rain 0.21 in5.3 mm, 30% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Drizzle, 65°18°
  20% chance · 0.02 in0.4 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 73°23°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 66°19°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
65°18°–78°26°
Low, likely
57°14°–67°19°
Typical high / low
63°17° / 43°6°
Wind
16 mph26 km/h, gusts 36 mph58 km/h

10 days15 days30 days

The outlook

Today
Dry, high 65°, low 42°.
Tomorrow
Dry, high 67°, low 40°.
Monday
Dry, high 72°, low 48°, warming up.
Rest of week
Mostly dry, highs 67–76°.

Want the meteorologists’ reasoning? Read the NWS forecast discussion (LWX) (opens in a new tab)

What changed since yesterday

No meaningful changes from yesterday’s forecast.

Radar

Radar data: NOAA MRMS, rendered by forecast.blue

Radar loads when scrolled into view

Full-screen radar

Rivers

NOAA river gauges within 25 mi

Quantico Creek at Dumfries

0.2 mi

Level: 2.6 ft

Reading from Sat 3:45 PM · NWS gauge page

Potomac River at Leesylvania State Park

4.4 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 3.4 ft

Reading from Sat 4:10 PM · NWS gauge page

South Fork Quantico Creek near Independent Hill

5.9 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 2.8 ft
Flow: under 1 cfs

Reading from Sat 4:15 PM · NWS gauge page

Easy Creek at Prince William Parkway

6.6 mi

Level: 0.0 ft

Reading from Sat 4:10 PM · NWS gauge page

For your home

What this week’s weather means for heating, cooling, pipes and fresh air.

Heating this week

About 64% less heating than a typical week.

This week 25Typical 70

Heating degree days, base 65°F

Heat-pump hours, next 7 days

h below 47°F: 19
h below 17°F: 0
h below 5°F: 0

47, 17 and 5°F are the test points heat pumps are rated at. About 2 hours are near freezing and damp, when outdoor units defrost more often.

Comfort

Dry air outside (dew point 42°F).

Open the windows?

Today, 5:00 PM–6:00 PM

Good stretch to open the windows.

Is this typical?

Quantico Mcas · official normals 1991–2020 · records 1945–2026

Oct 24, today vs a typical year

Today’s expected high is about typical for the date.

Last 7 days vs normal

On average 1°0° colder than normal (daily mean temperature).

−6°−3°SunOct 18
−3°−2°MonOct 19
+4°+2°TueOct 20
+1°±0°WedOct 21
+2°+1°ThuOct 22
±0°FriOct 23
—SatOct 24

Dumfries weather by month: normals, records, snow and freeze dates

Sun & moon

Sun

Daylight: 10 h 51 min; Losing 2 min 25 s a day; shortest Dec 21, 1 h 23 min less
Golden hour: 5:42–6:35 PM; Morning 7:10–8:04 AM
Blue hour: 6:35–6:45 PM; Morning 7:00–7:10 AM; first light 7:00 AM

Stars tonight? Fair

Mostly clear 6:45–10 PM, but the moon is 99% lit and up.

Moon

Waxing gibbous

98% lit · growing

Today: sets 5:40 AM · rises 5:15 PM
Full moon: Oct 26
New moon: Nov 9

Looking north from Dumfries. The highest point on the skyline is about 3,000 ft, 17 mi away.Skyline from USGS elevation data, heights drawn up to 6× taller. Sky, sun and moon as they are now.

1 active weather alert

Frost Advisory