Observed 3:15 PM EDT at K7W4

Lake Caroline, VA weather

Overcast and 60°16°, jacket by 7 PM.

Mostly agree

Now 60°16°

Cloudy

Wind: 3 mph5 km/h; From the east. Up to 5 mph8 km/h through 4 AM
Dew point: 45°7°; Comfortable
UV tomorrow: 4Moderate; Moderate 11 AM–5 PM · peak 4
Pressure: 30.5 inHg1033 hPa; Falling · −0.05 inHg−1.6 hPa in 3 h

No precipitation expected in the next 2 hours.

From forecast models

Next 48 hours

About the same as this time yesterday (62°17° then, 60°16° now)

Good hours for

Below 50°10° tonight after 8 PM
Low 38°3° tomorrow at 7 AM
Above 50°10° tomorrow by 10 AM
Drops 13°7° tomorrow night 6–9 PM (61°16° → 48°9°)

This afternoonNear 62°17° · Partly cloudy
TonightDown to 40°4° by 4 AM · Partly cloudy
Tomorrow morningUp to 55°13° by 11 AM · Partly cloudy
Tomorrow afternoonUp to 65°18° by 3 PM · Clear
Tomorrow nightDown to 37°3° by 4 AM · Clear
Monday morningUp to 56°13° by 11 AM · Clear
Monday afternoonUp to 67°19° by 2 PM · Clear

Hourly forecast, next 48 hours, in the place's local time
Hour	Conditions	Temperature	Feels like	Precipitation	Wind	Humidity	Cloud cover	UV index
Sat 4p	Partly sunny	62°17° (likely 60°16° to 64°18°)	60°16°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from E, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	50%	42%	3
Sat 5p	Partly sunny	61°16° (likely 59°15° to 63°17°)	59°15°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from E, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	51%	39%	2
Sat 6p	Partly cloudy	59°15° (likely 56°13° to 60°16°)	57°14°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from E, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	60%	52%	1
Sat 7p	Partly cloudy	54°12° (likely 53°12° to 56°13°)	53°12°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph14 km/h	77%	41%	0
Sat 8p	Clear	48°9° (likely 48°9° to 54°12°)	47°8°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph14 km/h	100%	29%	0
Sat 9p	Clear	46°8° (likely 46°8° to 52°11°)	45°7°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	100%	29%	0
Sat 10p	Mostly clear	45°7° (likely 45°7° to 51°11°)	44°7°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	100%	36%	0
Sat 11p	Clear	44°7° (likely 44°7° to 50°10°)	43°6°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	100%	22%	0
Sun 12a	Clear	43°6° (likely 43°6° to 49°9°)	42°6°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	15%	0
Sun 1a	Mostly clear	42°6° (likely 42°6° to 49°9°)	41°5°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from N, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	100%	45%	0
Sun 2a	Mostly clear	41°5° (likely 41°5° to 48°9°)	40°4°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from N, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	100%	19%	0
Sun 3a	Mostly clear	41°5° (likely 41°5° to 47°8°)	40°4°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from N, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	100%	13%	0
Sun 4a	Clear	40°4° (likely 40°4° to 46°8°)	38°3°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from N, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	100%	14%	0
Sun 5a	Mostly clear	40°4° (likely 40°4° to 46°8°)	38°3°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from N, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	17%	0
Sun 6a	Mostly clear	40°4° (likely 40°4° to 46°8°)	38°3°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from N, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	25%	0
Sun 7a	Sunny	38°3° (likely 38°3° to 46°8°)	38°3°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from N, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	34%	0
Sun 8a	Sunny	40°4° (likely 40°4° to 47°8°)	38°3°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from N, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	37%	0
Sun 9a	Sunny	43°6° (likely 43°6° to 51°11°)	41°5°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from N, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	100%	30%	1
Sun 10a	Mostly sunny	50°10° (likely 50°10° to 55°13°)	49°9°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	89%	21%	2
Sun 11a	Mostly sunny	55°13° (likely 55°13° to 59°15°)	54°12°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from E, gusts 11 mph18 km/h	77%	19%	3
Sun 12p	Sunny	58°14° (likely 58°14° to 63°17°)	57°14°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from E, gusts 10 mph17 km/h	67%	12%	4
Sun 1p	Mostly sunny	62°17° (likely 62°17° to 65°18°)	61°16°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	58%	20%	4
Sun 2p	Mostly sunny	64°18° (likely 64°18° to 66°19°)	63°17°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	52%	15%	4
Sun 3p	Sunny	65°18° (likely 65°18° to 67°19°)	64°18°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	50%	17%	4
Sun 4p	Sunny	65°18° (likely 65°18° to 67°19°)	64°18°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	50%	14%	3
Sun 5p	Sunny	64°18° (likely 63°17° to 66°19°)	63°17°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	52%	12%	2
Sun 6p	Clear	61°16° (likely 59°15° to 63°17°)	60°16°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	60%	3%	0
Sun 7p	Clear	55°13° (likely 54°12° to 60°16°)	54°12°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	74%	42%	0
Sun 8p	Clear	48°9° (likely 48°9° to 60°16°)	48°9°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	40%	0
Sun 9p	Clear	46°8° (likely 46°8° to 58°14°)	45°7°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	100%	22%	0
Sun 10p	Clear	44°7° (likely 44°7° to 55°13°)	43°6°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	100%	2%	0
Sun 11p	Clear	43°6° (likely 43°6° to 52°11°)	42°6°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	100%	0%	0
Mon 12a	Clear	42°6° (likely 42°6° to 50°10°)	41°5°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	100%	2%	0
Mon 1a	Clear	40°4° (likely 40°4° to 49°9°)	39°4°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	100%	1%	0
Mon 2a	Clear	39°4° (likely 39°4° to 48°9°)	39°4°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	100%	1%	0
Mon 3a	Clear	38°3° (likely 38°3° to 47°8°)	38°3°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	100%	0%	0
Mon 4a	Clear	37°3° (likely 37°3° to 46°8°)	37°3°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	100%	12%	0
Mon 5a	Clear	37°3° (likely 37°3° to 45°7°)	37°3°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	100%	15%	0
Mon 6a	Clear	37°3° (likely 37°3° to 44°7°)	37°3°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	100%	19%	0
Mon 7a	Sunny	35°2° (likely 35°2° to 44°7°)	35°2°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	100%	24%	0
Mon 8a	Sunny	36°2° (likely 36°2° to 44°7°)	36°2°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	26%	0
Mon 9a	Sunny	42°6° (likely 42°6° to 49°9°)	41°5°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	96%	19%	1
Mon 10a	Sunny	49°9° (likely 49°9° to 56°13°)	48°9°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	80%	6%	2
Mon 11a	Sunny	56°13° (likely 56°13° to 60°16°)	55°13°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	64%	1%	3
Mon 12p	Sunny	60°16° (likely 60°16° to 64°18°)	59°15°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	55%	1%	4
Mon 1p	Sunny	63°17° (likely 63°17° to 66°19°)	62°17°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from NW, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	50%	1%	5
Mon 2p	Sunny	67°19° (likely 67°19° to 68°20°)	66°19°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from NW, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	43%	1%	5
Mon 3p	Sunny	67°19° (likely 67°19° to 70°21°)	66°19°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from NW, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	43%	0%	4

Days ahead

Tap a day for its hours and the official wording.

Today, Oct 24. Cloudy. High 63°17°, low 38°3°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Partly sunny, 62°17°
  Dry
2. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 48°9°
  Dry
3. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Mostly clear, 40°4°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. East wind around 5 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Northeast wind around 3 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
61°16°–64°18°
Low, likely
38°3°–40°4°
Wind
6 mph10 km/h, gusts 16 mph26 km/h
UV peak
5
Tomorrow, Oct 25. Cloudy. High 65°18°, low 35°2°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 40°4°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 65°18°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 48°9°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 37°3°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 65. Northeast wind around 3 mph.
Night: Patchy frost after 4am. Clear, with a low around 35. North wind around 1 mph.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
65°18°–67°19°
Low, likely
35°2°–46°8°
Wind
6 mph10 km/h, gusts 15 mph24 km/h
UV peak
4
Monday, Oct 26. Sunny. High 69°21°, low 45°7°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 36°2°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 69°20°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 54°12°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 47°8°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Patchy frost before 9am. Sunny, with a high near 69. Northwest wind around 2 mph.
Night: Clear, with a low around 45.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
68°20°–70°21°
Low, likely
37°3°–45°7°
Wind
5 mph9 km/h
UV peak
5
Tuesday, Oct 27. Sunny. High 70°21°, low 46°8°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 48°9°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 68°20°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 55°13°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 47°8°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 70.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
67°19°–70°21°
Low, likely
44°7°–49°9°
Wind
8 mph13 km/h, gusts 20 mph31 km/h
UV peak
5
Wednesday, Oct 28. Mostly cloudy. High 67°19°, low 47°8°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 47°8°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 65°18°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 55°13°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 48°9°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 67.
Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
64°18°–67°19°
Low, likely
43°6°–48°9°
Wind
7 mph11 km/h, gusts 16 mph26 km/h
UV peak
4
Thursday, Oct 29. Cloudy. High 70°21°, low 49°9°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 48°9°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Partly sunny, 69°21°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 57°14°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 48°9°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 49.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
67°19°–72°22°
Low, likely
45°7°–49°9°
Wind
5 mph8 km/h, gusts 18 mph29 km/h
UV peak
4
Friday, Oct 30. Mostly sunny. High 74°23°, low 50°10°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 48°9°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 74°23°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 60°15°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 49°10°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 74.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
73°23°–75°24°
Low, likely
46°8°–50°10°
Wind
6 mph9 km/h, gusts 26 mph42 km/h
UV peak
4
Saturday, Oct 31. Cloudy. High 72°22°, low 49°9°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Mostly sunny, 48°9°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 72°22°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Partly cloudy, 59°15°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 54°12°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
70°21°–73°23°
Low, likely
47°8°–52°11°
Wind
8 mph12 km/h, gusts 27 mph43 km/h
UV peak
4
Sunday, Nov 1. Cloudy. High 70°21°, low 54°12°. Rain 0.03 in0.8 mm, 20% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 55°13°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 69°21°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 65°18°
  20% chance · 0.02 in0.6 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 63°17°
  20% chance · 0.04 in0.9 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
60°16°–76°24°
Low, likely
52°11°–55°13°
Wind
8 mph13 km/h, gusts 17 mph28 km/h
Monday, Nov 2. Drizzle. High 73°23°, low 61°16°. Rain 0.27 in6.9 mm, 20% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 65°18°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 73°23°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 66°19°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
65°18°–78°26°
Low, likely
59°15°–67°19°
Wind
15 mph23 km/h, gusts 35 mph56 km/h
UV peak
1

10 days15 days30 days

The outlook

Today
Dry, high 63°, low 38°.
Tomorrow
Dry, high 65°, low 35°.
Monday
Dry, high 69°, low 45°, warming up.
Rest of week
Mostly dry, highs 67–74°.

Want the meteorologists’ reasoning? Read the NWS forecast discussion (AKQ) (opens in a new tab)

What changed since yesterday

No meaningful changes from yesterday’s forecast.

Radar

Radar data: NOAA MRMS, rendered by forecast.blue

Radar loads when scrolled into view

Full-screen radar

Rivers

NOAA river gauges within 25 mi

Rappahannock River above Fredericksburg

22 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 2.2 ft
Flow: 356 cfs

Forecast peak 2.2 ft Sat 8 PM

Reading from Sat 3 PM · NWS gauge page

Little River near DOSWELL

7.9 mi

Level: 2.1 ft
Flow: 12 cfs

Reading from Sat 2:45 PM · NWS gauge page

Mattaponi River at Bowling Green

8.9 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 2.4 ft
Flow: 42 cfs

Reading from Sat 2:45 PM · NWS gauge page

Polecat Creek near PENOLA

9.8 mi

Level: 2.5 ft
Flow: 9 cfs

Reading from Sat 2:30 PM · NWS gauge page

Sun & moon

Sun

Daylight: 10 h 53 min; Losing 2 min 21 s a day; shortest Dec 21, 1 h 21 min less
Golden hour: 5:44–6:36 PM; Morning 7:11–8:03 AM
Blue hour: 6:36–6:47 PM; Morning 7:00–7:11 AM; first light 7:00 AM

Stars tonight? Fair

Mostly clear 2–7 AM, but the moon is 99% lit and up.

Moon

Waxing gibbous

98% lit · growing

Today: sets 5:40 AM · rises 5:16 PM
Full moon: Oct 26
New moon: Nov 9

Looking west from Lake Caroline. The highest point on the skyline is about 4,000 ft, 62 mi away.Skyline from USGS elevation data, heights drawn up to 6× taller. Sky, sun and moon as they are now.