Observed 2:15 PM EDT at KW13

Nellysford, VA weather

Sunny and 58°14°.

Mostly agree

Now 58°14°

Sunny

Wind: 6 mph9 km/h; From the east-southeast. Up to 6 mph9 km/h through 3 AM
Dew point: 30°−1°; Dry · up to 38°3° by 7 PM (comfortable)
UV index: 3Moderate; Moderate until 4 PM · peak 5
Air quality: 31Good; Main pollutant: Ozone
Pressure: 30.5 inHg1033 hPa; Falling · −0.05 inHg−1.8 hPa in 3 h

No precipitation expected in the next 2 hours.

From forecast models

Next 48 hours

Good hours for

Low 40°4° tonight at 5 AM
Above 50°10° tomorrow by noon

This afternoonNear 53°12° · Clear
TonightDown to 40°4° by 5 AM · Clear
Tomorrow morningUp to 49°9° by 11 AM · Partly cloudy
Tomorrow afternoonUp to 57°14° by 3 PM · Clear
Tomorrow nightDown to 43°6° by 4 AM · Clear
Monday morningUp to 57°14° by 11 AM · Clear
Monday afternoonNear 62°17° · Clear

Hourly forecast, next 48 hours, in the place's local time
Hour	Conditions	Temperature	Feels like	Precipitation	Wind	Humidity	Cloud cover	UV index
Sat 3p	Sunny	54°12° (likely 50°10° to 54°12°)	54°12°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph14 km/h	52%	0%	3
Sat 4p	Sunny	53°12° (likely 50°10° to 54°12°)	53°12°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph14 km/h	52%	0%	2
Sat 5p	Sunny	52°11° (likely 49°9° to 53°12°)	52°11°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from E, gusts 9 mph14 km/h	54%	0%	1
Sat 6p	Clear	49°9° (likely 47°8° to 50°10°)	47°8°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	63%	0%	0
Sat 7p	Clear	47°8° (likely 43°6° to 47°8°)	46°8°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	71%	1%	0
Sat 8p	Clear	45°7° (likely 41°5° to 45°7°)	44°7°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from E, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	76%	8%	0
Sat 9p	Clear	45°7° (likely 40°4° to 45°7°)	44°7°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	79%	8%	0
Sat 10p	Clear	44°7° (likely 39°4° to 44°7°)	42°6°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	86%	5%	0
Sat 11p	Clear	42°6° (likely 38°3° to 43°6°)	40°4°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from E, gusts 7 mph12 km/h	96%	0%	0
Sun 12a	Clear	42°6° (likely 38°3° to 42°6°)	42°6°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	93%	10%	0
Sun 1a	Clear	42°6° (likely 37°3° to 42°6°)	42°6°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from N, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	93%	14%	0
Sun 2a	Partly cloudy	42°6° (likely 37°3° to 42°6°)	42°6°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	93%	24%	0
Sun 3a	Partly cloudy	42°6° (likely 37°3° to 42°6°)	42°6°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from NW, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	93%	54%	0
Sun 4a	Partly cloudy	41°5° (likely 37°3° to 41°5°)	41°5°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from NW, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	92%	33%	0
Sun 5a	Partly cloudy	40°4° (likely 35°2° to 40°4°)	40°4°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 7 mph10 km/h	96%	18%	0
Sun 6a	Partly cloudy	40°4° (likely 35°2° to 40°4°)	38°3°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NW, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	96%	25%	0
Sun 7a	Partly cloudy	40°4° (likely 35°2° to 40°4°)	38°3°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from N, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	96%	24%	0
Sun 8a	Sunny	41°5° (likely 35°2° to 41°5°)	39°4°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	92%	24%	0
Sun 9a	Partly sunny	44°7° (likely 39°4° to 44°7°)	42°6°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from N, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	86%	47%	1
Sun 10a	Mostly sunny	47°8° (likely 44°7° to 50°10°)	47°8°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from NE, gusts 9 mph15 km/h	79%	27%	2
Sun 11a	Mostly sunny	49°9° (likely 46°8° to 53°12°)	49°9°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 9 mph15 km/h	77%	26%	3
Sun 12p	Mostly sunny	52°11° (likely 48°9° to 55°13°)	52°11°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	69%	32%	4
Sun 1p	Mostly sunny	54°12° (likely 49°9° to 56°13°)	54°12°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph14 km/h	64%	30%	5
Sun 2p	Mostly sunny	56°13° (likely 50°10° to 57°14°)	56°13°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from SE, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	59%	28%	5
Sun 3p	Sunny	57°14° (likely 51°11° to 58°14°)	57°14°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from SE, gusts 8 mph14 km/h	57%	20%	4
Sun 4p	Sunny	56°13° (likely 51°11° to 58°14°)	56°13°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	59%	15%	3
Sun 5p	Sunny	55°13° (likely 50°10° to 57°14°)	55°13°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	61%	9%	2
Sun 6p	Clear	54°12° (likely 48°9° to 54°12°)	54°12°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 7 mph12 km/h	64%	4%	1
Sun 7p	Clear	51°11° (likely 45°7° to 51°11°)	51°11°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	71%	1%	0
Sun 8p	Clear	49°9° (likely 44°7° to 49°9°)	49°9°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	77%	0%	0
Sun 9p	Clear	48°9° (likely 43°6° to 48°9°)	48°9°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from SW, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	80%	0%	0
Sun 10p	Clear	47°8° (likely 42°6° to 47°8°)	47°8°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from W, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	79%	3%	0
Sun 11p	Clear	45°7° (likely 41°5° to 46°8°)	45°7°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from W, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	86%	5%	0
Mon 12a	Clear	45°7° (likely 39°4° to 45°7°)	45°7°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from W, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	82%	5%	0
Mon 1a	Clear	45°7° (likely 37°3° to 45°7°)	45°7°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from W, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	79%	10%	0
Mon 2a	Clear	44°7° (likely 36°2° to 44°7°)	42°6°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from W, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	82%	9%	0
Mon 3a	Clear	44°7° (likely 36°2° to 44°7°)	41°5°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from W, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	79%	9%	0
Mon 4a	Clear	43°6° (likely 36°2° to 43°6°)	39°4°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from W, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	82%	8%	0
Mon 5a	Clear	43°6° (likely 37°3° to 43°6°)	39°4°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from W, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	79%	8%	0
Mon 6a	Clear	43°6° (likely 37°3° to 43°6°)	39°4°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from W, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	76%	7%	0
Mon 7a	Clear	43°6° (likely 37°3° to 43°6°)	39°4°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from W, gusts 8 mph12 km/h	70%	7%	0
Mon 8a	Sunny	43°6° (likely 37°3° to 43°6°)	39°4°	0%	6 mph10 km/h from W, gusts 7 mph12 km/h	67%	7%	0
Mon 9a	Sunny	47°8° (likely 43°6° to 47°8°)	45°7°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from NW, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	58%	0%	1
Mon 10a	Sunny	52°11° (likely 49°9° to 52°11°)	52°11°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from NW, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	46%	0%	2
Mon 11a	Sunny	57°14° (likely 53°12° to 57°14°)	57°14°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NW, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	40%	2%	3
Mon 12p	Sunny	60°16° (likely 56°13° to 60°16°)	60°16°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NW, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	37%	0%	4
Mon 1p	Sunny	62°17° (likely 58°14° to 62°17°)	62°17°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from N, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	36%	0%	5
Mon 2p	Sunny	63°17° (likely 59°15° to 63°17°)	63°17°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	36%	0%	5

Days ahead

Tap a day for its hours and the official wording.

Today, Oct 24. Sunny. High 54°12°, low 40°4°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 54°12°
  Dry
2. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 45°7°
  Dry
3. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Partly cloudy, 40°4°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Today: Sunny, with a high near 54. East wind around 5 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
50°10°–54°12°
Low, likely
35°2°–40°4°
Wind
7 mph11 km/h, gusts 16 mph26 km/h
UV peak
5
Tomorrow, Oct 25. Mostly sunny. High 57°14°, low 43°6°. Dry. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Partly sunny, 41°5°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 57°14°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 49°9°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 43°6°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 57. Northeast wind around 3 mph.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 43. West wind 1 to 6 mph.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
51°11°–58°14°
Low, likely
34°1°–43°6°
Wind
7 mph11 km/h, gusts 16 mph25 km/h
UV peak
5
Monday, Oct 26. Mostly sunny. High 63°17°, low 48°9°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 43°6°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 63°17°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 48°9°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 44°7°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 63. Northwest wind 0 to 6 mph.
Night: Clear, with a low around 48.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
61°16°–65°18°
Low, likely
36°2°–48°9°
Wind
7 mph11 km/h, gusts 14 mph22 km/h
UV peak
5
Tuesday, Oct 27. Mostly sunny. High 63°17°, low 49°9°. Dry. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 44°7°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 61°16°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 48°9°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 41°5°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 63.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 49.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
59°15°–66°19°
Low, likely
42°6°–49°9°
Wind
7 mph11 km/h, gusts 24 mph38 km/h
UV peak
5
Wednesday, Oct 28. Cloudy. High 58°14°, low 49°9°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 40°4°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 56°13°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 47°8°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Partly cloudy, 41°5°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 58.
Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
55°13°–60°16°
Low, likely
38°3°–49°9°
Wind
7 mph12 km/h, gusts 17 mph28 km/h
UV peak
4
Thursday, Oct 29. Partly sunny. High 64°18°, low 50°10°. Dry. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 41°5°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 62°17°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 48°9°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 44°6°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
60°16°–66°19°
Low, likely
39°4°–50°10°
Wind
8 mph12 km/h, gusts 18 mph29 km/h
UV peak
4
Friday, Oct 30. Mostly sunny. High 68°20°, low 53°12°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 44°7°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 66°19°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 52°11°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Mostly clear, 45°7°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 68.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
65°18°–70°21°
Low, likely
41°5°–53°12°
Wind
6 mph10 km/h, gusts 15 mph25 km/h
UV peak
4
Saturday, Oct 31. Cloudy. High 64°18°, low 46°8°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 46°8°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 64°18°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 51°11°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 47°8°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
62°17°–68°20°
Low, likely
43°6°–52°11°
Wind
6 mph10 km/h, gusts 17 mph28 km/h
UV peak
4
Sunday, Nov 1. Drizzle. High 62°17°, low 48°9°. Rain 0.08 in2 mm, 30% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 49°9°
  20% chance · 0.02 in0.4 mm
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 60°16°
  30% chance · 0.02 in0.6 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 55°13°
  30% chance · 0.02 in0.6 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 54°12°
  20% chance · 0.12 in3.1 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
53°12°–68°20°
Low, likely
43°6°–54°12°
Wind
7 mph11 km/h, gusts 18 mph29 km/h
UV peak
2
Monday, Nov 2. Drizzle. High 63°17°, low 51°11°. Rain 0.56 in14 mm, 30% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 56°13°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 61°16°
  20% chance · 0.2 in5.1 mm
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 55°13°
  20% chance · 0.26 in6.6 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
53°12°–70°21°
Low, likely
39°4°–58°14°
Wind
11 mph17 km/h, gusts 32 mph51 km/h

10 days15 days30 days

The outlook

Today
Dry, high 54°, low 40°.
Tomorrow
Dry, high 57°, low 43°, warming up.
Monday
Dry, high 63°, low 48°, warming up.
Rest of week
Mostly dry, highs 58–68°.

Want the meteorologists’ reasoning? Read the NWS forecast discussion (LWX) (opens in a new tab)

What changed since yesterday

No meaningful changes from yesterday’s forecast.

Radar

Radar data: NOAA MRMS, rendered by forecast.blue

Radar loads when scrolled into view

Full-screen radar

Rivers

NOAA river gauges within 25 mi

South River at Waynesboro near Lyndhurst Road

9.3 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 2.4 ft
Flow: 27 cfs

Forecast peak 2.3 ft Sat 8 PM

Reading from Sat 1:15 PM · NWS gauge page

Back Creek at Sherando

5.1 mi

Level: 3.3 ft

Reading from Sat 1:45 PM · NWS gauge page

Rockfish River near Greenfield

5.3 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 2.6 ft
Flow: 31 cfs

Reading from Sat 1:45 PM · NWS gauge page

South River at Lyndhurst Rd

9.5 mi

Level: 2.0 ft

Reading from Sat 2 PM · NWS gauge page

Sun & moon

Sun

Daylight: 10 h 53 min; Losing 2 min 16 s a day; shortest Dec 21, 1 h 21 min less
Golden hour: 5:49–6:42 PM; Morning 7:16–8:09 AM
Blue hour: 6:42–6:52 PM; Morning 7:06–7:16 AM; first light 7:06 AM

Stars tonight? Fair

Mostly clear 6:52 PM–3 AM, but the moon is 99% lit and up.

Moon

Waxing gibbous

97% lit · growing

Today: sets 5:46 AM · rises 5:22 PM
Full moon: Oct 26
New moon: Nov 9

Looking west from Nellysford. The highest point on the skyline is about 3,900 ft, 7 mi away.Skyline from USGS elevation data, heights drawn up to 6× taller. Sky, sun and moon as they are now.