Observed 1:45 PM EDT at KHEF

Nokesville, VA weather

Partly cloudy and 63°17°, jacket by 7 PM.

Mostly agree

Now 63°17°

Partly sunny

Wind: 3 mph5 km/h; From the southeast. Up to 5 mph8 km/h through 2 AM
Dew point: 41°5°; Comfortable
UV index: 3Moderate; Moderate until 4 PM · peak 4
Air quality: 30Good; Ozone · tomorrow moderate
Pressure: 30.54 inHg1034 hPa; Falling · −0.05 inHg−1.8 hPa in 3 h

No precipitation expected in the next 2 hours.

From forecast models

Next 48 hours

3°1° cooler than this time yesterday (63°17° then, 60°16° now)

Good hours for

Drops 12°7° today 5–8 PM (63°17° → 51°11°)
Below 50°10° tonight after 8 PM
Fog tonight midnight–1 AM
Fog tomorrow 7–9 AM
Drops 13°7° tomorrow 5–8 PM (66°19° → 53°12°)

This afternoonNear 64°18° · Clear
TonightDown to 35°2° by 4 AM · Partly cloudy
Tomorrow morningUp to 57°14° by 11 AM · Clear
Tomorrow afternoonUp to 67°19° by 3 PM · Clear
Tomorrow nightDown to 37°3° by 5 AM · Clear
Monday morningUp to 58°14° by 11 AM · Clear

Hourly forecast, next 48 hours, in the place's local time
Hour	Conditions	Temperature	Feels like	Precipitation	Wind	Humidity	Cloud cover	UV index
Sat 2p	Mostly sunny	64°18° (likely 60°16° to 64°18°)	64°18°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SE, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	45%	19%	3
Sat 3p	Mostly sunny	64°18° (likely 60°16° to 64°18°)	64°18°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SE, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	43%	17%	3
Sat 4p	Mostly sunny	64°18° (likely 60°16° to 64°18°)	64°18°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from SE, gusts 7 mph12 km/h	43%	22%	1
Sat 5p	Partly sunny	63°17° (likely 59°15° to 63°17°)	63°17°	0%	5 mph8 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	46%	20%	1
Sat 6p	Partly cloudy	59°15° (likely 56°13° to 59°15°)	59°15°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from E, gusts 8 mph13 km/h	53%	21%	0
Sat 7p	Clear	51°11° (likely 51°11° to 54°12°)	51°11°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from E, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	71%	18%	0
Sat 8p	Clear	48°9° (likely 48°9° to 52°11°)	48°9°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from E, gusts 7 mph12 km/h	83%	15%	0
Sat 9p	Clear	44°7° (likely 44°7° to 50°10°)	44°7°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	93%	13%	0
Sat 10p	Clear	42°6° (likely 42°6° to 49°9°)	42°6°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	100%	10%	0
Sat 11p	Clear	41°5° (likely 41°5° to 48°9°)	41°5°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	100%	24%	0
Sun 12a	Fog	39°4° (likely 39°4° to 48°9°)	39°4°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	100%	51%	0
Sun 1a	Cloudy	38°3° (likely 38°3° to 48°9°)	38°3°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	100%	56%	0
Sun 2a	Cloudy	37°3° (likely 37°3° to 49°9°)	37°3°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	100%	56%	0
Sun 3a	Fog	37°3° (likely 37°3° to 47°8°)	37°3°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	100%	36%	0
Sun 4a	Clear	35°2° (likely 35°2° to 45°7°)	35°2°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	100%	19%	0
Sun 5a	Clear	35°2° (likely 35°2° to 44°7°)	35°2°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from N, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	100%	15%	0
Sun 6a	Clear	34°1° (likely 34°1° to 43°6°)	34°1°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from N, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	100%	14%	0
Sun 7a	Fog	34°1° (likely 34°1° to 42°6°)	34°1°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from N, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	100%	29%	0
Sun 8a	Fog	35°2° (likely 35°2° to 42°6°)	35°2°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from N, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	100%	34%	0
Sun 9a	Sunny	43°6° (likely 43°6° to 46°8°)	43°6°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from N, gusts 5 mph9 km/h	93%	23%	1
Sun 10a	Mostly sunny	51°11° (likely 50°10° to 53°12°)	51°11°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from N, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	77%	20%	2
Sun 11a	Mostly sunny	57°14° (likely 55°13° to 58°14°)	57°14°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	67%	18%	3
Sun 12p	Mostly sunny	61°16° (likely 60°16° to 62°17°)	61°16°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NE, gusts 7 mph11 km/h	58%	12%	4
Sun 1p	Mostly sunny	63°17° (likely 62°17° to 64°18°)	63°17°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	52%	21%	4
Sun 2p	Mostly sunny	66°19° (likely 63°17° to 66°19°)	66°19°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	45%	17%	4
Sun 3p	Sunny	67°19° (likely 64°18° to 67°19°)	67°19°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from E, gusts 5 mph8 km/h	43%	13%	4
Sun 4p	Sunny	67°19° (likely 64°18° to 67°19°)	67°19°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from SE, gusts 6 mph10 km/h	45%	15%	3
Sun 5p	Sunny	66°19° (likely 63°17° to 66°19°)	66°19°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from SE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	47%	9%	2
Sun 6p	Clear	61°16° (likely 59°15° to 62°17°)	61°16°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 5 mph7 km/h	58%	1%	0
Sun 7p	Clear	53°12° (likely 53°12° to 57°14°)	53°12°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from SE, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	77%	0%	0
Sun 8p	Clear	50°10° (likely 50°10° to 54°12°)	50°10°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	86%	0%	0
Sun 9p	Clear	46°8° (likely 46°8° to 52°11°)	46°8°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	96%	1%	0
Sun 10p	Clear	43°6° (likely 43°6° to 49°9°)	43°6°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	100%	1%	0
Sun 11p	Clear	42°6° (likely 42°6° to 48°9°)	42°6°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 3 mph6 km/h	100%	1%	0
Mon 12a	Clear	41°5° (likely 41°5° to 47°8°)	41°5°	0%	0 mph0 km/h, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	100%	1%	0
Mon 1a	Clear	40°4° (likely 40°4° to 46°8°)	40°4°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	100%	1%	0
Mon 2a	Clear	40°4° (likely 40°4° to 45°7°)	40°4°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	100%	1%	0
Mon 3a	Clear	39°4° (likely 39°4° to 44°7°)	39°4°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	100%	12%	0
Mon 4a	Clear	39°4° (likely 39°4° to 43°6°)	39°4°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	100%	15%	0
Mon 5a	Clear	37°3° (likely 37°3° to 43°6°)	37°3°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	100%	16%	0
Mon 6a	Clear	35°2° (likely 35°2° to 42°6°)	35°2°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 4 mph6 km/h	100%	20%	0
Mon 7a	Clear	34°1° (likely 34°1° to 42°6°)	34°1°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 3 mph6 km/h	100%	24%	0
Mon 8a	Sunny	36°2° (likely 36°2° to 43°6°)	36°2°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	100%	27%	0
Mon 9a	Mostly sunny	42°6° (likely 37°3° to 50°10°)	42°6°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from W, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	93%	30%	1
Mon 10a	Sunny	50°10° (likely 45°7° to 56°13°)	50°10°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NW, gusts 3 mph5 km/h	80%	4%	2
Mon 11a	Sunny	58°14° (likely 54°12° to 61°16°)	58°14°	0%	1 mph2 km/h from NW, gusts 4 mph7 km/h	67%	0%	3
Mon 12p	Sunny	63°17° (likely 61°16° to 65°18°)	63°17°	0%	2 mph3 km/h from NW, gusts 6 mph9 km/h	56%	3%	4
Mon 1p	Sunny	66°19° (likely 65°18° to 67°19°)	66°19°	0%	3 mph5 km/h from NW, gusts 8 mph14 km/h	50%	0%	4

Days ahead

Shaded: typical range for these dates (1991–2020)

Today, Oct 24. Mostly sunny. High 64°18°, low 34°1°. Typical 64°18° / 42°6°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Mostly sunny, 64°18°
  Dry
2. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 48°9°
  Dry
3. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Fog, 35°2°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Today: Sunny, with a high near 64. Southeast wind around 5 mph.
Tonight: Patchy fog between 10pm and 2am, then patchy frost and patchy fog. Mostly clear, with a low around 34. Northeast wind 0 to 3 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
60°16°–64°18°
Low, likely
34°1°–38°3°
Typical high / low
64°18° / 42°6°
Wind
6 mph9 km/h, gusts 12 mph19 km/h
UV peak
4
Tomorrow, Oct 25. Cloudy. High 67°19°, low 34°1°. Typical 64°18° / 42°6°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 35°2°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 67°19°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 50°10°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 37°3°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Patchy frost and patchy fog before 9am. Sunny, with a high near 67. East wind around 1 mph.
Night: Patchy frost after 5am. Clear, with a low around 34. South wind around 1 mph.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
64°18°–67°19°
Low, likely
34°1°–41°5°
Typical high / low
64°18° / 42°6°
Wind
5 mph8 km/h
UV peak
4
Monday, Oct 26. Mostly sunny. High 70°21°, low 46°8°. Typical 63°17° / 41°5°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Mostly sunny, 36°2°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 69°21°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 54°12°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 48°9°
  Dry
Official NWS forecast
Day: Patchy frost before 9am. Sunny, with a high near 70. Northwest wind around 3 mph.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
68°20°–70°21°
Low, likely
37°3°–46°8°
Typical high / low
63°17° / 41°5°
Wind
6 mph10 km/h, gusts 13 mph22 km/h
UV peak
4
Tuesday, Oct 27. Mostly sunny. High 68°20°, low 43°6°. Typical 63°17° / 41°5°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 47°8°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 67°19°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 56°13°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 46°8°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 68.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 43.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
65°18°–70°21°
Low, likely
43°6°–50°10°
Typical high / low
63°17° / 41°5°
Wind
8 mph13 km/h, gusts 17 mph27 km/h
UV peak
4
Wednesday, Oct 28. Cloudy. High 65°18°, low 44°7°. Typical 63°17° / 41°5°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 46°8°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 64°18°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 55°13°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Mostly clear, 47°8°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 65.
Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
63°17°–66°19°
Low, likely
43°6°–47°8°
Typical high / low
63°17° / 41°5°
Wind
6 mph9 km/h, gusts 15 mph24 km/h
UV peak
4
Thursday, Oct 29. Cloudy. High 70°21°, low 48°9°. Typical 62°17° / 40°4°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Partly sunny, 46°8°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Mostly sunny, 68°20°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 56°13°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 47°8°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
67°19°–70°21°
Low, likely
44°7°–48°9°
Typical high / low
62°17° / 40°4°
Wind
8 mph12 km/h, gusts 23 mph37 km/h
UV peak
4
Friday, Oct 30. Mostly sunny. High 73°23°, low 47°8°. Typical 62°17° / 40°4°. Dry. Forecasts agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 47°8°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Sunny, 75°24°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Clear, 60°15°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Clear, 49°10°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
Official NWS forecast
Day: Sunny, with a high near 73.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
Forecasts agreeIndependent forecasts are close; the range is narrow.
High, likely
73°23°–75°24°
Low, likely
44°7°–48°9°
Typical high / low
62°17° / 40°4°
Wind
6 mph10 km/h, gusts 26 mph42 km/h
UV peak
4
Saturday, Oct 31. Cloudy. High 72°22°, low 49°9°. Typical 62°17° / 40°4°. Dry. Mostly agree.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Sunny, 48°9°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Cloudy, 73°23°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Cloudy, 59°15°
  Dry
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Cloudy, 55°13°
  Dry
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Mostly agreeIndependent forecasts are fairly close; small surprises are possible.
High, likely
70°21°–74°23°
Low, likely
45°7°–52°11°
Typical high / low
62°17° / 40°4°
Wind
6 mph10 km/h, gusts 27 mph44 km/h
UV peak
4
Sunday, Nov 1. Drizzle. High 70°21°, low 54°12°. Typical 61°16° / 39°4°. Rain 0.03 in0.8 mm, 20% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 56°14°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 69°21°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 64°18°
  20% chance · 0.02 in0.5 mm
4. Overnight
  midnight–6 AM
  Drizzle, 63°17°
  20% chance · 0.05 in1.4 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
64°18°–73°23°
Low, likely
51°11°–57°14°
Typical high / low
61°16° / 39°4°
Wind
10 mph16 km/h, gusts 24 mph38 km/h
UV peak
2
Monday, Nov 2. Drizzle. High 73°23°, low 58°14°. Typical 61°16° / 39°4°. Rain 0.43 in11 mm, 30% chance. Forecasts differ.
1. Morning
  6 AM–noon
  Cloudy, 64°18°
  Dry
2. Afternoon
  noon–6 PM
  Drizzle, 72°22°
  Dry
3. Evening
  6 PM–midnight
  Drizzle, 64°18°
  20% chance · 0.36 in9.2 mm
Hours this far out come from computer models only.
The National Weather Service writes about seven days ahead; this day is our model forecast only.
Forecasts differIndependent forecasts disagree; expect changes and plan for the range.
High, likely
64°18°–78°26°
Low, likely
49°9°–66°19°
Typical high / low
61°16° / 39°4°
Wind
17 mph27 km/h, gusts 37 mph60 km/h

10 days15 days30 days

The outlook

Today
Dry, high 64°, low 34°.
Tomorrow
Dry, high 67°, low 34°, warming up.
Monday
Dry, high 70°, low 46°, warming up.
Rest of week
Mostly dry, highs 65–73°.

Want the meteorologists’ reasoning? Read the NWS forecast discussion (LWX) (opens in a new tab)

What changed since yesterday

No meaningful changes from yesterday’s forecast.

Radar

Radar data: NOAA MRMS, rendered by forecast.blue

Radar loads when scrolled into view

Full-screen radar

Rivers

NOAA river gauges within 25 mi

Kettle Run at Bristow Manor GC

2.4 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 0.9 ft

Reading from Sat 12:55 PM · NWS gauge page

Slate Run at Old Church Rd

3.8 mi

Level: 0.5 ft

Reading from Sat 1:05 PM · NWS gauge page

Cedar Run at Bristow Road

4.6 mi

Level: 9.1 ft

Reading from Sat 12:55 PM · NWS gauge page

Cedar Run near Catlett

4.7 mi

Below flood stage

Level: 2.2 ft
Flow: 19 cfs

Reading from Sat 12:45 PM · NWS gauge page

For your home

What this week’s weather means for heating, cooling, pipes and fresh air.

Heating this week

About 63% less heating than a typical week.

This week 34Typical 91

Heating degree days, base 65°F

Heat-pump hours, next 7 days

h below 47°F: 26
h below 17°F: 0
h below 5°F: 0

47, 17 and 5°F are the test points heat pumps are rated at. About 22 hours are near freezing and damp, when outdoor units defrost more often.

Comfort

Dry air outside (dew point 41°F).

Open the windows?

Today, 3:00 PM–5:00 PM

Good stretch to open the windows.

Is this typical?

Manassas · official normals 1991–2020 · records 2004–2026

Oct 24, today vs a typical year

Today’s expected high is about typical for the date.

Last 7 days vs normal

On average 2°1° colder than normal (daily mean temperature).

—SunOct 18
−6°−4°MonOct 19
−3°−2°TueOct 20
+3°+2°WedOct 21
—ThuOct 22
—FriOct 23
—SatOct 24

Nokesville weather by month: normals, records, snow and freeze dates

Sun & moon

Sun

Daylight: 10 h 51 min; Losing 2 min 21 s a day; shortest Dec 21, 1 h 23 min less
Golden hour: 5:42–6:36 PM; Morning 7:12–8:05 AM
Blue hour: 6:36–6:46 PM; Morning 7:01–7:12 AM; first light 7:01 AM

Stars tonight? Fair

Mostly clear 6:46 PM–12 AM, but the moon is 99% lit and up.

Moon

Waxing gibbous

97% lit · growing

Today: sets 5:41 AM · rises 5:16 PM
Full moon: Oct 26
New moon: Nov 9

Looking west from Nokesville. The highest point on the skyline is about 3,900 ft, 45 mi away.Skyline from USGS elevation data, heights drawn up to 6× taller. Sky, sun and moon as they are now.